Funny events in anti-woke world

[The Rogue Wolf]

Actual court filing: "The sandwich was thrown at 'POINT BLANK RANGE'!"

Funny how the government tried to plead "trauma" after the ICE agent admitted to making jokes about the "attack" and his buddies gave him little sandwich toys.

But hey, you've gotta make the protestors afraid of you if you want to have a proper dictatorship.

 

[Gergar12]

It's over; the US DOD has likely decided that Taiwan is lost. If we were to intervene in Taiwan, US troops there could be tied down for 3 decades while the world goes into a depression that would kill even more in the global south about starvation, which would make them likely to blame the US. It won't be a quick war either, and we aren't past the point where nuclear weapons are irrelevant given AI, drones, and missile defense. I have already sold my TSM stock.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-military-10-charts

 

[Hades]

I think its really funny how Brie Larson is voicing Rosalina now. For one it gives the pathetic outrage grifters more chances to embarrass herself with their weird obsession about her. But that she's in the Mario movie is the cherry on top.

As we know those very same outrage merchants that start to hyperventilate whenever Larson breaths also have a history with the Mario movie. They tried to ruin its reputation and make it fail to prop up their far right credentials, but then were forced to backtrack the moment they noticed it was too popular to slander. Its probably not the case but its funny to imagine the voice director choosing Brie Larson as a deliberate declaration of war against the freaks that tried to harm his movie.

 

[Trunkage]

It's over; the US DOD has likely decided that Taiwan is lost. If we were to intervene in Taiwan, US troops there could be tied down for 3 decades while the world goes into a depression that would kill even more in the global south about starvation, which would make them likely to blame the US. It won't be a quick war either, and we aren't past the point where nuclear weapons are irrelevant given AI, drones, and missile defense. I have already sold my TSM stock.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-military-10-charts

Trump never waa going to do anything about Taiwan. Its been lost since 2015. China now owns most of Asia Pacfic and has been entrenched for a long time

This is not news. Its just giving Trump an excuse for his failures

 

[Trunkage]

NHS staff who visit patients at home say St George’s flags can mean ‘no-go zones’

Black and Asian staff left feeling ‘deliberately intimidated’, according to chief executive of one NHS trust

www.theguardian.com

It's just a bit of harmless patriotism, though, isn't it? I mean, sure, all those people putting up flags can be found saying on the internet "BRITAIN IS FULL", "TURN BACK THE BOATS", "THERE ARE TOO MANY OF THEM", "THEY'RE TRYING TO REPLACE US" but that's totally unconnected to their innocent outpourings of love for their nation.

And that nice Mr. Farage, he'd be appalled, wouldn't he? He's not a racist, see, he occasionally speaks to Asians and black people. And I'm sure he feels awful that there might be a rising tide of racism against anyone darker-than-white who are British citizens or legal immigrants working hard for a living, but surely that's nothing to do with him because he says racism is bad. He'd be absolutely mortified at the idea of becoming PM on the back of encouraging interracial violence and hatred in society.

I would also partially blame Stamer here. He did start with one hand tied behind his back. He also has made so many bad decision that is putting pressure on eveeyone until they lash out.

It doesnt just thr racism. Racism increases when people are put in awful economic sitautions

 

[Silvanus]

Trump never waa going to do anything about Taiwan. Its been lost since 2015.

The future of Taiwan was never going to be determined by an actual military confrontation between the US and China. That's just a scenario online military-heads fantasise about, its not realistic.

Militarily, China can take Taiwan. That was no different under the last US President. The US would not commit itself to that fight, regardless of Trump. Cost-benefit is way too one-sided.

What could deter China is what it would cost them. It would severely damage their international reputation, ruin some trading relationships, maybe sanctions. And unlike Russia, China's government cares much more about stability, rep, and revenue than it does grandstanding and expansionism.

 

[Gergar12]

Italy probes claim that tourists paid to go to Bosnia to kill besieged civilians

Italians and others are alleged to have paid large sums to fire at Bosnians risking their lives in besieged Sarajevo.

www.bbc.com

This world is fucked up. Any American who does/did this should be in prison, but I suspect, like with any other country, it will get swept under a rug.

 

[meiam]

Italy probes claim that tourists paid to go to Bosnia to kill besieged civilians

Italians and others are alleged to have paid large sums to fire at Bosnians risking their lives in besieged Sarajevo.

www.bbc.com

This world is fucked up. Any American who does/did this should be in prison, but I suspect, like with any other country, it will get swept under a rug.

They'll be nominated to the new minister of hunting and conservation.

 

[Agema]

What could deter China is what it would cost them. It would severely damage their international reputation, ruin some trading relationships, maybe sanctions. And unlike Russia, China's government cares much more about stability, rep, and revenue than it does grandstanding and expansionism.

The history of the world tells us what will happen: all great powers eventually embrace brute force to achieve their ends.

Unless Taiwan submits to Chinese supremacy, China will take Taiwan militarily, sooner or later. Not necessarily with a full invasion: it could potentially blockade it into submission. China is still heavily on the rise, it has time to wait out for opponents to relatively weaken. And even if the cost were be too great, eventually a Chinese leader would miscalculate or sacrifice the nation's interest for his own.

 

[Silvanus]

The history of the world tells us what will happen: all great powers eventually embrace brute force to achieve their ends.

I feel that this is pretty reductionist.

Great powers have often resorted to force. Great powers have also had global ends that they have ultimately concluded were not worth the investment, and have re-adjusted their expectations. The latter has become a lot more common over the last two centuries. Gets less attention for obvious reasons, but it happens semi-often.

Unless Taiwan submits to Chinese supremacy, China will take Taiwan militarily, sooner or later. Not necessarily with a full invasion: it could potentially blockade it into submission. China is still heavily on the rise, it has time to wait out for opponents to relatively weaken. And even if the cost were be too great, eventually a Chinese leader would miscalculate or sacrifice the nation's interest for his own.

Perhaps. Or perhaps the symbolic importance of Taiwan to Chinese politics will have significantly waned by the time such a leader took the reigns. Countless long-term territorial ambitions have fallen by the wayside over the centuries.

 

[Gergar12]

I feel that this is pretty reductionist.

Great powers have often resorted to force. Great powers have also had global ends that they have ultimately concluded were not worth the investment, and have re-adjusted their expectations. The latter has become a lot more common over the last two centuries. Gets less attention for obvious reasons, but it happens semi-often.



Perhaps. Or perhaps the symbolic importance of Taiwan to Chinese politics will have significantly waned by the time such a leader took the reigns. Countless long-term territorial ambitions have fallen by the wayside over the centuries.

The only way that happens is if Xi crashes the economy and mismanages. He is not doing that, and I doubt even in his old age he will do that. Nationalism generally comes when the state does a good job, or via a war.

In other news


We need a national Mamdani ASAP.

 

[Agema]

I feel that this is pretty reductionist.

Great powers have often resorted to force. Great powers have also had global ends that they have ultimately concluded were not worth the investment, and have re-adjusted their expectations. The latter has become a lot more common over the last two centuries. Gets less attention for obvious reasons, but it happens semi-often.

Chinese strategic vulnerability in in terms of key sea zones makes control of Taiwan an extremely important objective (hence also South China Sea, Senkaku islands). Even in the absence of the USA or other power external to the region, China would not want an alliance of Pacific nations to be able to surround and restrict it.

China could perhaps have become the first great power that did not rely on military power for a major component of expression of its power. But the development of the Chinese arms industry and armed forces and its overt aggression towards its neighbours makes it abundantly clear that China envisages its future to be as militarily inclined as any previous great power. You can call it reductionist, but I think China's done the maths and decided its future involves it's own fair share of sabre-rattling and bullying. It's rhetoric over Taiwan has become more strident, not less. Finally, no matter how much any country says that its military is defensive, that military is a tool that can also be used offensively, and one day, a leader will use it that way.

 

[Silvanus]

Chinese strategic vulnerability in in terms of key sea zones makes control of Taiwan an extremely important objective (hence also South China Sea, Senkaku islands). Even in the absence of the USA or other power external to the region, China would not want an alliance of Pacific nations to be able to surround and restrict it.

If such an alliance actually began military development in Taiwan, all these calculations would of course change. Both China and the pacific nations that would compose any such alliance know that if such an effort were started, Taiwan could be taken before it got off the ground.

China could perhaps have become the first great power that did not rely on military power for a major component of expression of its power. But the development of the Chinese arms industry and armed forces and its overt aggression towards its neighbours makes it abundantly clear that China envisages its future to be as militarily inclined as any previous great power. You can call it reductionist, but I think China's done the maths and decided its future involves it's own fair share of sabre-rattling and bullying. It's rhetoric over Taiwan has become more strident, not less. Finally, no matter how much any country says that its military is defensive, that military is a tool that can also be used offensively, and one day, a leader will use it that way.

Any country will act the same? Almost every country on earth has a military; hundreds are not rabid expansionists. Every country's internal calculations are highly individual, dependent, and cultural.

With China, we can of course look to their sabre-rattling and their priors (like the annexation of Tibet). But Taiwan would cost them several orders of magnitude more than did Tibet.

 

[Agema]

If such an alliance actually began military development in Taiwan, all these calculations would of course change. Both China and the pacific nations that would compose any such alliance know that if such an effort were started, Taiwan could be taken before it got off the ground.

China can't just take over Taiwan overnight, it would require a sustained military build-up which would almost certainly be observed and mirrored by Taiwan and its allies. An assault will meet a prepared defence. The Japanese PM has literally just commented that Japan could come to Taiwan's aid in the event of conflict.

Any country will act the same? Almost every country on earth has a military; hundreds are not rabid expansionists. Every country's internal calculations are highly individual, dependent, and cultural.

People are mostly the same, no countries and the people within are that different. Countries use the tools available to them to achieve their aims. The more powerful a nation's military, the more likely that it will be used a tool to achieve their aims.

But Taiwan would cost them several orders of magnitude more than did Tibet.

Anyone powerful enough will get away with anything, like the USA did invading Iraq. Russia has come off much worse from invading Ukraine, but so far has not faced critical losses. Israel is getting away mass murdering Palestinians because the USA protects it.

Sure, there'll be plenty of diplomatic damage in the short term, and even a long-term stain on reputation. But how many countries will really do something that serious and long-lasting? They won't.

 

[Satinavian]

Anyone powerful enough will get away with anything, like the USA did invading Iraq. Russia has come off much worse from invading Ukraine, but so far has not faced critical losses. Israel is getting away mass murdering Palestinians because the USA protects it.

Russia lost a lot and the endeavor was absolutely not worth it. Its influence is a shadow of what it was before the war, its economy is in decline, its army is exposed as being weak, its power projection is gone (as well as most of its allies) and then there are the actual losses.

It is a reminder to China to not be overconfident. The Chinese army has also a load of problems. Mainly that it is a career with low prestige, low pay, many extra restrictions and mostly filled with people who can't find anything else. And even after decades of lowering recruitment standards, it has difficulties filling specialist roles. Corruption is also rampant even if more subtle than in Russia. As is a habit of not reporting problems.
And it is very untested. The last thing kinda counts as combat deployment was the UN mission in South Sudan. And that was an utter disaster.

I am not so sure Xi is willing to roll the dice and discover how much of Chinas strength is real and how much only exists on paper. Not after Russia did.

 

[Agema]

Russia lost a lot and the endeavor was absolutely not worth it. Its influence is a shadow of what it was before the war, its economy is in decline, its army is exposed as being weak, its power projection is gone (as well as most of its allies) and then there are the actual losses.

Depends on the timescale.

Let's imagine next year peace is signed, with the borders approximately on the current line of control. In 50 years time, Russia will may well be about where it would have been if it had never started that war... except it has added five oblasts, millions of people, and a better strategic geographical position. So it was shown up as a paper tiger? It was a paper tiger in truth even if hidden, and this would have come out in other ways (e.g. Ukraine would have moved to the EU anyway, China would have firmly made it junior partner). Its economy has taken a load of damage, but chances are it that means it will end up growing faster when some degree of normalcy returns and it plays catch-up. And so on.

Of course, possibly the war could also precipitate a future collapse in Russia. Who knows?

But the point is that countries often don't face penalties for being evil: powerful countries especially because they're too powerful to punish. They take damage, but can absorb it, even come out stronger. They become feared and hated, but whilst opponents laugh and cheer at their comeuppances, the sour reality is that they get away with their crimes.

In short, if the world wants to guarantee Taiwanese independence, some of those guarantees are going to have to be major military ones.

 

[Satinavian]

But the point is that countries often don't face penalties for being evil: powerful countries especially because they're too powerful to punish. They take damage, but can absorb it, even come out stronger. They become feared and hated, but whilst opponents laugh and cheer at their comeuppances, the sour reality is that they get away with their crimes.

I agree. Powerful countries have the power to just do what they want. And they regularly use that power.

OTOH history are full of empires that did collapse and it seems more than half after a war either lost or getting a Pyrrhic victory that ruined the economy and the power base. When an Empire is shown to be weak, from outside the vultures come and inside the unhappy ones see their chance while the leadership tends to play blame games.

In short, if the world wants to guarantee Taiwanese independence, some of those guarantees are going to have to be major military ones.

Also yes. Which is why it matters that Japan did exactly that after the US became (more) untrustworthy.

 

[Hades]

An update of the aftermath of the Dutch election. To sum up the results: The PVV lost but their votes mostly went to other far right parties, the center returned to prominence and the left also lost.

As predicted the VVD(Dutch Tories) only suffering a slight loss and their dreadful leader Yezilgoz surviving massively complicated the formation of a new coalition. Despite having lost seats, and in general having lost a quarter of their vote share since the Rutte days the VVD adopted a winner's arrogance. Since they're needed for a new coalition they use this to forbid practically every coalition option except those they want. And then Yezilgoz smugly says in front of the camera that there's no problem at all, and that if the parties of her choosing just sit together then this won't have to take long. What's extra vexing is that the ''stable center right coalition'' that woman is so desperate for doesn't have a majority in parliament, and it has the radical right JA21 party in it. So its neither stable or centrist, something she knows so she's trying to gasslight us into submission...again.

But that's actually not the worst. Its mostly in line with expectations. The depth of the barrel actually has to do with the ''scouts'' meant to facilitate the formation of a new government. We had two, one of the winning D66 party, and one of the Christian Democrats. And because one of those two scouts wasn't pro VVD enough he has been ousted by a manufactured scandal. Not by the VVD itself surprisingly enough, but by some corrupt lobby group and their media toadies.

Its such a bunch of nonsense. The Scout was trapped in scandal because he called Yesilgoz a liar....which she objectively is. Its just a fact she brought down the last stable government over a lie because she hoped to profit from it electorally(and then lost that election). The scout said he didn't remember saying this at all, but he apologized. But then it turned out he never actually said this at all! Someone next to him said those words and he just happened to be in the room! That should have been the end....but then the journalist who first accused him of calling Yesilgoz a liar started to dig into the scout's private correspondence until they found an unflattering remark directed at Yesilgoz and now the scout is forced to resign anyway.

So first they tried to damage the scout with false information and when this failed they kept digging until they found something that would work. That's not journalism, but a hit job.

And the more that comes out of this story the more it reeks of corruption. Central to this story is the lobby group ''Stability for the Netherlands'' which is a pro corporate lobby group that before the election already said they'd strive for a ''stable'' government without either Wilders...or the regular left in it. They seemed to have done the hit on the scout because he said he wanted the left party to enter the coalition if they moved to the center. The journalist who broke this ''news'' is an old VVD party member who often ''has drinks'' with one of the leading member of this lobby group, and it was a member of this lobby group which leaked the scout's private chat to this journalist.

It shows how much the VVD, but also their donors have radicalized that even the smallest of left wing influences must be ousted and that they'll be willing to go over corpses to get their desired outcome. Its worth noting that these people supposedly so concerned for stability welcome extreme right parties that aren't the PVV.

 

[Casual Shinji]

An update of the aftermath of the Dutch election. To sum up the results: The PVV lost but their votes mostly went to other far right parties, the center returned to prominence and the left also lost.

As predicted the VVD(Dutch Tories) only suffering a slight loss and their dreadful leader Yezilgoz surviving massively complicated the formation of a new coalition. Despite having lost seats, and in general having lost a quarter of their vote share since the Rutte days the VVD adopted a winner's arrogance. Since they're needed for a new coalition they use this to forbid practically every coalition option except those they want. And then Yezilgoz smugly says in front of the camera that there's no problem at all, and that if the parties of her choosing just sit together then this won't have to take long. What's extra vexing is that the ''stable center right coalition'' that woman is so desperate for doesn't have a majority in parliament, and it has the radical right JA21 party in it. So its neither stable or centrist, something she knows so she's trying to gasslight us into submission...again.

But that's actually not the worst. Its mostly in line with expectations. The depth of the barrel actually has to do with the ''scouts'' meant to facilitate the formation of a new government. We had two, one of the winning D66 party, and one of the Christian Democrats. And because one of those two scouts wasn't pro VVD enough he has been ousted by a manufactured scandal. Not by the VVD itself surprisingly enough, but by some corrupt lobby group and their media toadies.

Its such a bunch of nonsense. The Scout was trapped in scandal because he called Yesilgoz a liar....which she objectively is. Its just a fact she brought down the last stable government over a lie because she hoped to profit from it electorally(and then lost that election). The scout said he didn't remember saying this at all, but he apologized. But then it turned out he never actually said this at all! Someone next to him said those words and he just happened to be in the room! That should have been the end....but then the journalist who first accused him of calling Yesilgoz a liar started to dig into the scout's private correspondence until they found an unflattering remark directed at Yesilgoz and now the scout is forced to resign anyway.

So first they tried to damage the scout with false information and when this failed they kept digging until they found something that would work. That's not journalism, but a hit job.

And the more that comes out of this story the more it reeks of corruption. Central to this story is the lobby group ''Stability for the Netherlands'' which is a pro corporate lobby group that before the election already said they'd strive for a ''stable'' government without either Wilders...or the regular left in it. They seemed to have done the hit on the scout because he said he wanted the left party to enter the coalition if they moved to the center. The journalist who broke this ''news'' is an old VVD party member who often ''has drinks'' with one of the leading member of this lobby group, and it was a member of this lobby group which leaked the scout's private chat to this journalist.

It shows how much the VVD, but also their donors have radicalized that even the smallest of left wing influences must be ousted and that they'll be willing to go over corpses to get their desired outcome. Its worth noting that these people supposedly so concerned for stability welcome extreme right parties that aren't the PVV.

We've had the most right-wing coalition ever fuck up the hardest any coalition has fucked up in Dutch politics, and everyone is still seeing left-wing boogie men under their bed.

Also, fuck Yezilgoz. Never been that big a fan of the VVD, but the way she's been dragging that party through the garbage with her bullshit... You think she would've been ousted already when she smeared an artist critical of Israel as a jew hater to the point he had to flee the country, but here we still are with this fucking arrogant twit.

 

[XsjadoBlaydette]

John Oliver discusses Jeffrey Epstein’s emails about Donald Trump, the vital role public media plays in the lives of many Americans, and some absolutely essential questions about a squirrel named Peapod.

John Oliver wine, you say?

https://johnoliversjunk.com

https://e.givesmart.com/events/LYw/i/

(k weirdly though it said I should turn off any VPN etc for the site to work, it was only after turning the VPN on I got through at all lol)