Biden v. Trump Election Mega Thread

[SilentPony]

The question was not "do you support white supremacists?" The question was "are you willing tonight to condemn white supremacists and militia group and to say that they need to stand down and not add to the violence in a number of these cities as we saw in Kenosha and as we’ve seen in Portland?" This question is dishonest framing on two levels:

First, it's phrased in such a way where the correct answer is apparently insufficient. "Are you willing to?" "Yes." "Well, folks, he didn't do it."
Second, it's combining multiple concepts together in an unnecessary way that makes the question actually less meaningful. "Will you condemn white supremacists and militia groups." Well, those aren't the same thing, or even necessarily related. There are definitely militia groups that aren't white supremacists. To give an extreme example, you could ask the question "are you willing to condemn human trafficking and tacos?" Answering "no" wouldn't necessarily mean you won't condemn human trafficking, how'd the poor tacos get involved here? Chris Wallace phrased the question in a way that ties support for any militia group directly to support for white supremacy.

Trump actually effectively side-stepped the trap. He declined to blanket condemn that broad phrasing and asked for a specific group to condemn, and he responded with largely the same phrasing as the question, "stand down". And even with all of that, what's the headline?

That's complete and utter bullshit and you should know better.
If you've ever taken even 5th grade writing assignments you know that that was a perfectly reasonable and phrased question. "Will you condemn white supremacists and tell them to stop being violent" is not a gotcha trap question. Its a very basic idea and Trump failed to comprehend it. FAILED.
He asked for a group. A group. When asked to condemn an ideology. White Supremacy is not a group name, its an ideology he was asked to condemn and he couldn't do it.

Here is the answer a 5th grader could do: Yes, I condemn white supremists and they should stop being violent. That accomplished literally everything the question called for, and doesn't require naming a group.

You shouldn't be trying this hard to defend what was supposed to be an insanely easy question and Trump verbally shit himself and pretended it didn't stink. Even Fox news, conservative and barely literate Fox News, admits how terribly Trump failed this. And when Fox and Friends thinks you missed the easy question, that's sad.

 

[Agema]

Probably MSNBC

It probably didn't happen, let's be honest.

Polls are so often wrong because they work on the assumption of honestly.

It's a downfall of a number of "public response survey" too where people with certain inclinations find out about them and share them round like minded people to push the numbers up unless it's literally special invite only stuff. Professional Polling companies can and sometimes do outsource to others who may not be as good.

Lets just say the number of polls that have been released that saw different results as of late it puts into doubt most of them.

Except polls, overall, are broadly right - so long as you understand statistics and how to intrepret them. They are also more sophisticated than you seem to think. Funnily enough, the professionals who work on polls have already considered the fact that people might not be honest.

Each individual poll has a margin of error. This is not something that they just pull out of their backsides, it's calculated. It includes sample size, and accounts for people who aren't honest, potential mismatches with the demographics, etc. It can be scrutinised against other data, past records etc. for additional. This margin of error might be relatively large: 5% or so.

Let's say individually polls all have 2000 people, so individually they're all quite weak, and you will see ranges across perhaps 10% (remember that 5% margin or error): thus why we might see anywhere from Biden +12 to +2. But once you add ten of them all together, you've effectively got a sample of 20,000, which is far more reliable, because the bigger the sample size, the greater the reliability. The margin of error on that is going to be much, much smaller. Unsurpringly, it turns out that poll aggregrates are pretty good. Certainly good enough that if they're showing Biden +7, then Trump needs a miracle.

Even without people like my Aunt you then have cases where if you have a CNN own poll

There are no meaningful political polls run by CNN. When they want something done properly, they employ a firm ike Gallup or YouGov.

 

[Worgen]

Looks at the picture from the ADL I posted........... Does that count as evidence or are they all self hating POC in that picture?

It could be, there are defiantly self hating black people out there.

I've seen Gavin Mcinnes speak. He can be a jerk (disrespects video gamers) but seemed genuine that he would want a movement to say they think there is much to be proud of in Western culture, regardless of race.

I do have to wonder if something similar to what happened to the Tea Party is having an impact on Proud Boys (that real bigots are ruining this organization just as the Tea Party that was a libertarian minded movement turned into radical Christian Fundamentalists as it got taken over).

Usually 'proud of western culture' means also ignoring or hand waving the bad stuff its done and I would argue you can't be a true patriot without actually acknowledging the bad shit your country has done and trying to be better.

Could be, seems like a lot of right leaning groups tend to be taken over by the much harder core right wingers. Such as the NRA.

 

[Baffle]

There was never a response to that question that wouldn't have been turned into a headline against him. Had he responded "I condemn..." and used to exact phrase Chris Wallace said, the immediate followup would have been "well what about those Covid protestors with guns that you expressed support for" and now the headline is "Trump contradicts himself on white supremacists".

Stop entertaining insane fantasies.

 

[stroopwafel]

Holy hell, you way wrong here. The highest public healthcare expenditure (%GDP) in Europe is ~8%, and the average is ~7%. Even if you measured by combined public and private, the highest healthcare spend in European countries is only ~11%GDP. Healthcare is more like a seventh to a sixth of the government budget.

Ironically, healthcare is actually a higher proportion of the government budget in the USA than it is in Europe.

Per capita maybe but like I said there is a disproportionate amount of receivers that pay little to no taxes. If you add it to social security with which it overlaps you have like 60-70% of the government budget. Look at a pie chart of your country's budget and what the taxes are spend on. You have users and payers with an appeal to 'solidarity' which is an argument that just doesn't fly in an individualistic nation like the U.S. Well, that and the fact that such a system doesn't work when the population is too large for obvious reasons. It's already unsustainable in Europe.

 

[Baffle]

If you add it to social security with which it overlaps you have like 60-70% of the government budget.

Kinda moving the goal posts if we have to add all the other parts of government spending to reach your figures.

 

[Shadyside]

So basically a real fight club.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Kid who works as a lifeguard
Kid who were there to help people
Kid who is on video helping people and offering first aid earlier in the night.
Kid who was attacked and acted in self defence.
0 evidence he's a white supremacist and the claim is based on him being white (ignore the fact 2 of the 3 people he shot were white)

An "aspiring cop" with a blue lives matter phone case and who shows up to counter-protest BLM armed is a white supremacist.

 

[Specter Von Baren]

An "aspiring cop" with a blue lives matter phone case and who shows up to counter-protest BLM armed is a white supremacist.

No.

 

[stroopwafel]

Kinda moving the goal posts if we have to add all the other parts of government spending to reach your figures.

Well no because I clearly indicated it was to illustrate how the system is divided between payers and receivers on the notion of solidarity. And yes, in such a system there is a huge overlap between healthcare and social security. But even on it's own healthcare is atleast a third like I mentioned in my initial post.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Funny how when it comes to white supremacists, white people get antsy about calling a spade a spade.

Funny about how when it comes to things radical leftists are more than happy to see a few black cops shot dead

That's complete and utter bullshit and you should know better.
If you've ever taken even 5th grade writing assignments you know that that was a perfectly reasonable and phrased question. "Will you condemn white supremacists and tell them to stop being violent" is not a gotcha trap question. Its a very basic idea and Trump failed to comprehend it. FAILED.
He asked for a group. A group. When asked to condemn an ideology. White Supremacy is not a group name, its an ideology he was asked to condemn and he couldn't do it.

Here is the answer a 5th grader could do: Yes, I condemn white supremists and they should stop being violent. That accomplished literally everything the question called for, and doesn't require naming a group.

You shouldn't be trying this hard to defend what was supposed to be an insanely easy question and Trump verbally shit himself and pretended it didn't stink. Even Fox news, conservative and barely literate Fox News, admits how terribly Trump failed this. And when Fox and Friends thinks you missed the easy question, that's sad.

Easy if Trump tells them that then it's deemed Trump does control them.

Then he has to answer why he didn't condemn them and stop this before (even though he did condemn them before and it's his fault for not stopping the violence even if he has no control over it).

Again Trump said he would condemn it so the implication there is yea he does condemn it and the question has to be said does he have to really go further to make sure the people at the back get it?

It probably didn't happen, let's be honest.

Hillary 14 points ahead

Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 14 Points Nationally in New Poll

The Democratic nominee leads Trump among likely voters 51% to 37%

time.com

Hillary so far ahead she doesn't think about Trump

Hillary Clinton so far ahead in polls that she 'doesn't even think about' Donald Trump anymore

Hillary Clinton is so far ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the presidency that she no longer even feels the need to pay attention to the Republican nominee.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Hillary leads by 20 Percetange points with women

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL)

Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the 2016 election.

abcnews.go.com

I've found the 20 point one it was for primaries though not the main election but a 14 point is a pretty big lead to claim she has.
But also

Hillary 20 points ahead in CA

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article112168782.html

Except polls, overall, are broadly right - so long as you understand statistics and how to intrepret them. They are also more sophisticated than you seem to think. Funnily enough, the professionals who work on polls have already considered the fact that people might not be honest.

And yet they have been getting them so wrong it seems.

Each individual poll has a margin of error. This is not something that they just pull out of their backsides, it's calculated. It includes sample size, and accounts for people who aren't honest, potential mismatches with the demographics, etc. It can be scrutinised against other data, past records etc. for additional. This margin of error might be relatively large: 5% or so.

And that margin for error is becoming far bigger these days it seems.

Let's say individually polls all have 2000 people, so individually they're all quite weak, and you will see ranges across perhaps 10% (remember that 5% margin or error): thus why we might see anywhere from Biden +12 to +2. But once you add ten of them all together, you've effectively got a sample of 20,000, which is far more reliable, because the bigger the sample size, the greater the reliability. The margin of error on that is going to be much, much smaller. Unsurpringly, it turns out that poll aggregrates are pretty good. Certainly good enough that if they're showing Biden +7, then Trump needs a miracle.

Not really because one set of unreliable info can impact others even taking as an average. You know like how one person in a company earning Millions a year can push the company average reported wage up even though most people at said company don't earn near that..

There are no meaningful political polls run by CNN. When they want something done properly, they employ a firm ike Gallup or YouGov.

There might be some non meaningful ones done.

Also polling higher = making people feel fine not turning out or people feel less obligation.
News of how Trump will lose according to polls may push more people to make extra effort to make sure they vote.

It could be, there are defiantly self hating black people out there.



Usually 'proud of western culture' means also ignoring or hand waving the bad stuff its done and I would argue you can't be a true patriot without actually acknowledging the bad shit your country has done and trying to be better.

Could be, seems like a lot of right leaning groups tend to be taken over by the much harder core right wingers. Such as the NRA.

Just to point this out but hasn't every country at one stage or another done shitty stuff in the past?

I mean long in the past the country some of my ancestors are from was happy to harbour and trade with murderous pirates......... and yes that means my ancestors also include said pirates too lol

 

[Baffle]

Well no because I clearly indicated it was to illustrate how the system is divided between payers and receivers on the notion of solidarity. And yes, in such a system there is a huge overlap between healthcare and social security. But even on it's own healthcare is atleast a third like I mentioned in my initial post.

UK healthcare budget is about 19% according to gov figures (about the same as social security, the majority of which is pensions). You can't just add different bits of the budget up to make your numbers look right.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

1) He wasn't counter protecting.
2) He was there after being asked by the owner of the lot along with some friend
3) He was there based on his own claims to try and make sure there was no trouble
4) Videos exist of him having given medical assistance to protesters (so hardly a counter protestor)
5) Do Police officers only come in White now?

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

It absolutely isn't. That's the point. People are scared of the fact he COULD win a second time, and that will get people to vote who were apathetic or nursing their clinton/sanders resentments. The fact that there is no clear winner.

I hope you're right.

 

[Gordon_4]

The question was not "do you support white supremacists?" The question was "are you willing tonight to condemn white supremacists and militia group and to say that they need to stand down and not add to the violence in a number of these cities as we saw in Kenosha and as we’ve seen in Portland?" This question is dishonest framing on two levels:

First, it's phrased in such a way where the correct answer is apparently insufficient. "Are you willing to?" "Yes." "Well, folks, he didn't do it."
Second, it's combining multiple concepts together in an unnecessary way that makes the question actually less meaningful. "Will you condemn white supremacists and militia groups." Well, those aren't the same thing, or even necessarily related. There are definitely militia groups that aren't white supremacists. To give an extreme example, you could ask the question "are you willing to condemn human trafficking and tacos?" Answering "no" wouldn't necessarily mean you won't condemn human trafficking, how'd the poor tacos get involved here? Chris Wallace phrased the question in a way that ties support for any militia group directly to support for white supremacy.

Trump actually effectively side-stepped the trap. He declined to blanket condemn that broad phrasing and asked for a specific group to condemn, and he responded with largely the same phrasing as the question, "stand down". And even with all of that, what's the headline?

It wasn’t a yes or no question. He should have taken a second and perhaps explained in more presidential language that white supremacist groups are knuckle dragging chucklefucks for whom he has no liking and will not support and that militias are an issue to be debated in courts due to their legality being assured under the second amendment and now the next stupid question please, Mr. Moderator.

I mean Jesus Christ these two clowns are supposed to be fucking statesmen and from what I observed it was more like watching Homer Simpson debate Abe Simpson. I am legitimately shocked one of them didn’t drop their strides and moon the opponent.

 

[Specter Von Baren]

HAHAHAHA! This is the best one yet!

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

It absolutely isn't. That's the point. People are scared of the fact he COULD win a second time, and that will get people to vote who were apathetic or nursing their clinton/sanders resentments. The fact that there is no clear winner.

I think the only people scared of that are those who were scared the first time round.

I mean it's been 4 years and the USA has survived and you're not in another pointless war, the economy isn't ruined the border wall hasn't magically caused the earth to split open. I'm not sure what fear people really can have left I mean what somehow now Trump will enact his secret master plan knowing he won't be running again?

The fear play seems highly illogical now when people can point to all the fear of Trump in 2016 and tick off a list of stuff that hasn't happened.

 

[Specter Von Baren]

I hope you're right.

Nah. I think a lot of us are going to flip the bird to the fucking Dems for once again deciding to play limbo with their candidate choice and assume the propaganda machine will do the work for them.

 

[Worgen]

Just to point this out but hasn't every country at one stage or another done shitty stuff in the past?

I mean long in the past the country some of my ancestors are from was happy to harbour and trade with murderous pirates......... and yes that means my ancestors also include said pirates too lol

Oh yeah completely and a lot of it is worse then most of what we have done. I mean England was the evil empire from pretty much every story, Japan has the rape of Nanjing, China has its current Uighur genocide, Russia has its government famine. And those are just the ones that come to mind. But, to actually love your country you have to be able to acknowledge the bad shit its done and not try to hide from it. Usually when someone says patriotic or proud of so and so culture, its cause they are going to pretend none of the bad shit happened or hand wave it really hard.

 

[Seanchaidh]

I'm not going to vote for someone who has nothing but contempt for my politics.