Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)
- Thread starter Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)
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So apparently there was an error in Arizona voting count and is way more votes left in the initial thought so Arizona is a possibility to be trumped.
Also I've heard rumors of voter fraud in Florida with some mail personnel holding onto election ballots but the only source I can find so far I don't really trust
Also I've heard rumors of voter fraud in Florida with some mail personnel holding onto election ballots but the only source I can find so far I don't really trust
More exactly, there's a federal deadline to have things sorted, and that deadline is a week prior to the electoral college vote (which itself is the Monday after the second Tuesday in December, or the 14th this year). So it's slightly longer than a month, but not by much.
Then the Dems couldn't blame anyone but themselves for not getting shit done, which I'm pretty sure is a nightmare scenario for them. Assuming they abolished the filibuster (which they could do with a simple majority vote at start of session, mind you).
If there weren't more concerning things at stake, I would too enjoy the Schadenfreude...
Twitter and Facebook are two of the worst creations of my lifetime.
Although Wisconsin has still not officially called, I think it's increasingly strongly believed Biden is up far enough that Trump will not overhaul the deficit. The governor, Scott Walker, has implied by Tweet it's not worth challenging because the margin will be magnitudes greater than anything a recount has changed.
Michigan is already blue, and the margin is increasing: now approaching 50,000. It is likely most remaining votes to be declared are Democrat.
Arizona has turned out to have more uncounted ballots than originally thought so is theoretically open for Trump to take the lead, although it's suspected it won't happen.
Results are crawling in in Pennsylvania, and Trump's lead is steadily shrinking. Now below 500k, with over 3 million to count which are suspected to be substantially pro-Biden. Still well open. Georgia, NC and Nevada have counts that have barely budged an inch for hours and are wide open.
Assuming Arizona, WI and MI are all Biden, Biden needs just one of the other four.
Michigan is already blue, and the margin is increasing: now approaching 50,000. It is likely most remaining votes to be declared are Democrat.
Arizona has turned out to have more uncounted ballots than originally thought so is theoretically open for Trump to take the lead, although it's suspected it won't happen.
Results are crawling in in Pennsylvania, and Trump's lead is steadily shrinking. Now below 500k, with over 3 million to count which are suspected to be substantially pro-Biden. Still well open. Georgia, NC and Nevada have counts that have barely budged an inch for hours and are wide open.
Assuming Arizona, WI and MI are all Biden, Biden needs just one of the other four.
Again, should be noted that most of AZ's uncounted ballots are probably the rest of the mail-in/early ballots as they stopped counting them yesterday.
Its just from random forum people but I hear Trump is steadily catching up there.
Trump supporters who love to avoid polls to give the Republicans a fog of war advantage, and panic the republicans...
Sound strategy.
I argued Democrats should do the same if you see a poll avoid it. Let the independents do the polls, sure I know I am a political science major majoring in IR and our field needs polls, but so what, it''s better than democrats being overconfident.
Sound strategy.
I argued Democrats should do the same if you see a poll avoid it. Let the independents do the polls, sure I know I am a political science major majoring in IR and our field needs polls, but so what, it''s better than democrats being overconfident.
I'd argue that 2016 would have gone differently if Clinton hadn't been projected to win so strongly the day before the election, because some democrats leaning voter just decided to skip the vote since they though it was in the bag. This time around I don't think you can make that assumption, since the turnout was exceptionally high. I think it's important to note that vast majority of people care very little about politic and are extraordinarily uninformed (there's something like 10% of the electorate that can't even give the most basic information about the two party), so a lot of people who barely know what's happening voted this time around. Many of them probably just voted for whoever they heard about the most (ie Trump, incumbent candidate have massive advantages because of effect like these). These people most likely do not answer in polls which can skew results when participation is high.
I'm not completely(or at all) convinced, but for those worrying about Arizona this might reassure you
apnews.com
EXPLAINER: A closer look at Arizona
A CLOSER LOOK AT ARIZONA State officials said Friday there are 150,000 votes still to be counted in Arizona, a Western presidential battleground state where Democrat Joe Biden had a .92 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump, an advantage of about 29,861 votes.
apnews.com
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