Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

Status
Not open for further replies.

Revnak

We must imagine Sisyphus horny
Legacy
May 25, 2020
2,944
3,099
118
Country
USA
Remember how Democrats said that we needed Biden for down ballot races? They’re losing seats. In 2020. After COVID. I hate these people so much.
Edit: the fucking last batch of votes in Maine that got Collins out of a runoff? Majority Biden. I think his lead got fucking wider with it.
Edit2: THE TWO SENATE RACES THE DEMS WILL PICK UP? GIMME IN COLORADO WHERE HICKENLOOPER UNDERPERFORMED BIDEN AND ARIZONA WITH A FUCKING ASTRONAUT.
 
Last edited:

crimson5pheonix

It took 6 months to read my title.
Legacy
Jun 6, 2008
36,472
3,660
118
Remember how Democrats said that we needed Biden for down ballot races? They’re losing seats. In 2020. After COVID. I hate these people so much.
BuT iMaGiNe HoW mAnY MoRe ThEy'D lOsE wItH SANDERS?!?!?!!? *scare chord*
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seanchaidh

Hades

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2013
2,248
1,697
118
Country
The Netherlands
BuT iMaGiNe HoW mAnY MoRe ThEy'D lOsE wItH SANDERS?!?!?!!? *scare chord*
This despite Trump's Florida win apparently being partly due to Cubans who think anything left of the far right is dangerous socialism. If anything this election might point to Republicans slandering their center right opponents as dangerous socialists is incredibly effective.
 

Agema

Do everything and feel nothing
Legacy
Mar 3, 2009
9,201
6,476
118
Its just from random forum people but I hear Trump is steadily catching up there.
I think it might actually be unrealisticaly hyped, perhaps with some Republican hijinx. Reports suggest most of the uncounted votes are from Maricopa and Pima counties, which lean Democrat, and Biden's already ahead.
 

crimson5pheonix

It took 6 months to read my title.
Legacy
Jun 6, 2008
36,472
3,660
118
This despite Trump's Florida win apparently being partly due to Cubans who think anything left of the far right is dangerous socialism. If anything this election might point to Republicans slandering their center right opponents as dangerous socialists is incredibly effective.
This was already known.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Revnak

Revnak

We must imagine Sisyphus horny
Legacy
May 25, 2020
2,944
3,099
118
Country
USA
This despite Trump's Florida win apparently being partly due to Cubans who think anything left of the far right is dangerous socialism. If anything this election might point to Republicans slandering their center right opponents as dangerous socialists is incredibly effective.
Florida is a red state. FLORIDA IS A RED STATE. STOP CARING ABOUT WINNING FLORIDA OVER EVERY OTHER STATE IN THE COUNTRY. You can lose Florida and win the election! That was literally Biden’s strategy, he basically only campaigned in the rust belt!

Fuck, if Biden had done as well with Latinos as fucking Hilary he would’ve won FUCKING TEXAS. And before you say those Latinos would’ve supported Bernie less, fuck no they wouldn’t have, they were his core the entire primary!
 

meiam

Elite Member
Dec 9, 2010
3,586
1,819
118
This despite Trump's Florida win apparently being partly due to Cubans who think anything left of the far right is dangerous socialism. If anything this election might point to Republicans slandering their center right opponents as dangerous socialists is incredibly effective.
I mean, this is made a lot easier when the runner up to the democrat ticket is an honest to god self describe socialist. Dem should have worked a lot harder to have less centrist in the primary so they'd have snapped onto Biden a lot earlier, this would have made Sanders looks as hopeless as he always was and would have helped shift the conversation away from the socialism angle.
 

Gergar12

Elite Member
Legacy
Apr 24, 2020
3,918
864
118
Country
United States
I'd argue that 2016 would have gone differently if Clinton hadn't been projected to win so strongly the day before the election, because some democrats leaning voter just decided to skip the vote since they though it was in the bag. This time around I don't think you can make that assumption, since the turnout was exceptionally high. I think it's important to note that vast majority of people care very little about politic and are extraordinarily uninformed (there's something like 10% of the electorate that can't even give the most basic information about the two party), so a lot of people who barely know what's happening voted this time around. Many of them probably just voted for whoever they heard about the most (ie Trump, incumbent candidate have massive advantages because of effect like these). These people most likely do not answer in polls which can skew results when participation is high.
The problem is either the statistical methods, the polling procedures, or Trump supporters dodging or outright lying about polls.

By the way, if you're concerned about "liberal arts" pollsters, deep state, universities who will give your address to Antifa. We would legit be fired on the spot if we did this, our work would be discredited, and we would have to be a shill for one side or the other for cranks.

I think what happened is that they undersampled people(Trump supporters), and then extrapolate that smaller sample to assume all Trump supporters think this way, and then just increased the margin of error, and called it a day.

The problem with that is that if 40 Trump supporters or Caucasian men with no degree were polled vs an expected 50, then those 40's opinions would be assumed to be the 50.

The above may work for polls about issues, but not about voting patterns.

There was one poll where the only African American they could find was a Trump supporter, there was another foreign policy poll by a very respected professor on Israel-Knesset members that didn't even poll any Muslims-Knessets because it was hard.

Also fuck Amazon-M-Turk, a bunch of liberal college students taking polls, and people assumed it's the gospel.

There was also another poll where they oversampled foreign policy hawks and one where they undersampled young people who were foreign policy hawks. If there were no foreign policy hawk we wouldn't have Lindsey fucking Graham, Rubio, and Cotton, if there were majorities of people saying we should nuke the Iranians, the Trump admin may have gone to war with them to distract from Covid.

I hope the polling community learned a lesson from all of this, but they won't. Every concern will be brushed off with an excuse or it will just work.
 

Revnak

We must imagine Sisyphus horny
Legacy
May 25, 2020
2,944
3,099
118
Country
USA
I mean, this is made a lot easier when the runner up to the democrat ticket is an honest to god self describe socialist. Dem should have worked a lot harder to have less centrist in the primary so they'd have snapped onto Biden a lot earlier, this would have made Sanders looks as hopeless as he always was and would have helped shift the conversation away from the socialism angle.
Ok, but he did better in 2016 from the perspective of those following the primary casually and this didn’t happen then.
Edit: did I say “Ok, but”? I meant bullshit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: crimson5pheonix

Hades

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2013
2,248
1,697
118
Country
The Netherlands
I think this is supposed to be a right wing organisation but they make a point about the last Arizona areas supposedly leaning towards Biden. That its optimistic to make that conclusion. Dunno how trustworthy they are though.

 

crimson5pheonix

It took 6 months to read my title.
Legacy
Jun 6, 2008
36,472
3,660
118
I wonder how a candidate who is super popular among the rust belt and latinos would be doing right now? 🤔

Capture.PNG
 
  • Like
Reactions: Revnak

Hawki

Elite Member
Legacy
Mar 4, 2014
9,651
2,175
118
Country
Australia
Gender
Male
FFS, it's 7:15AM here, I've just got up, and this shit it still going on? Gah!
 

JoJo

and the Amazing Technicolour Dream Goat 🐐
Moderator
Legacy
Mar 31, 2010
7,162
130
68
Country
🇬🇧
Gender
♂
Not that many people here will be surprised, but AP has called Wisconsin for Biden.
 

SilentPony

Previously known as an alleged "Feather-Rustler"
Legacy
Apr 3, 2020
12,058
2,469
118
Corner of No and Where
FFS, it's 7:15AM here, I've just got up, and this shit it still going on? Gah!
This shit will be going on for the next forever. No matter who wins the US in irreparably separated and divided. 40% can't believe the other 40% exist and want them gone, and the remaining 20% are idiots.
Doesn't matter if Biden wins, Trump supporters will never accept him as President and more than likely the Senate will declare him an invalid President and entire states will ignore him and do whatever Trump says.
And if Trump wins by halting voting you better believe Biden supporters will be upset.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kwak
Status
Not open for further replies.