I wonder if these results are still a major wake up call to the pI think that AZ doesn't matter if NC GA PA go to Trump and WI MI go to Biden, it's a very slim Trump win with like 272 ec or close
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Yeah AZ is deciding factor in this scenario.
As I wrote, there can be explanations but they should be fairly minor. If Bush won 51 to 49 and you do a recount, statistically speaking, the vote after the count should still be about 51 to 49. Yet Gore managed to close that gap to about 500 votes in Florida. I think he "picked up" about 2,000 votes.No, thats not true. Different areas/demographics are more or less likely to cast absentee ballots, and those areas/ demographics may not politically reflect the votes already cast.
Like in PA: non-absentee votes skew Trump, absentee votes skew Biden, because absentee votes are more likely to come from urban areas in that state, and urban areas skew Democratic.
I agree that, within limits, the 1st run count should be allowed to complete. But I think it is PA is allowed to keep counting until 11/9/2020. That's 6 days in which to engage in a ton of shenanigans. Will Trump's double digit lead disappear?Vote counts are localised systems (elections are run at a county level, if I remember rightly), and counties tend to favour one side or the other. In the USA, it seems the slowest counts occur in certain cities, and cities tend to vote Democrat. Therefore, Democrat votes in numerous states are likely to roll in later than Republican ones. This isn't a conspiracy, it's just geography and procedure.
It's simply absurd and abusive to stop a count before a first run count is even complete.
ITMT: I wonder if pollsters should learn something from this election. They had Biden winning in a landslide with wide margins over Trump in most states. At a minimum, that does not appear to have been what happened.