Analyst Calls It: Nintendo Wins the Console War

Andy Chalk

One Flag, One Fleet, One Cat
Nov 12, 2002
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Analyst Calls It: Nintendo Wins the Console War


There's still a lot of life left in the current generation of consoles but industry analyst Jesse Divnich says nothing short of Ragnarok is going to keep Nintendo from coming out on top this time around.

For awhile, the Xbox 360 [http://www.wii.com] remains healthy and the PlayStation 3 is finally starting to find its legs. With the current console generation expected to last through 2013, is it possible that the this round of the console wars could have a surprise, come-from-behind winner?

Well, no. At least not according to IndustryGamers [http://www.eedar.com/]. "For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

"This is, of course, a worst-case scenario and highly unlikely to occur since the combined sum of hardware sold is nearly 60% more than that of the sixth generation consoles, but Wii sales will only be at par with PS2 sales (in this worst-case scenario)," he continued. "However, even if this scenario were to occur, the Wii would still come out the winner, with some room to breathe."

Divnich acknowledged that there are "complications" involved in his prediction, including the unlikely assumption that Nintendo is going to make no moves on the hardware front between now and 2013, and that Sony's plan to support the PS3 through 2016 could give it a substantial boost in sales numbers, "very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player."

Nonetheless, the real battle now is for second place and despite the "generous lead" held by the Xbox 360, Divnich believes it could turn into a genuine horse race. "The $299 price cut on the PS3 has clearly shifted momentum into Sony's favor," he said. "Is it enough to change Sony's current ranking or could Sony's ten-year support of the PS3 push its installed base ahead of the Xbox 360 in the long-term? Unfortunately, we will need another year of hard data before a comfortable projection can be made, but I am sure until then the heated debates will continue."


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Frank_Sinatra_

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Dec 30, 2008
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While doing my best not to be disrespectful.
Who really gives a shit about the console wars?
The console wars were created by the fanboys for the pain and torture of those who play games so they can have fun. The console wars just add a trench, or a Berlin Wall of sorts between the common people of gaming.

Anywho, back on topic:
despite the "generous lead" held by the Xbox 360, Divnich believes it could turn into a genuine horse race. "The $299 price cut on the PS3 has clearly shifted momentum into Sony's favor," he said. "Is it enough to change Sony's current ranking or could Sony's ten-year support of the PS3 push its installed base ahead of the Xbox 360 in the long-term?
You know since a good portion of people already own 360's, I can see them going out to Best Buy and picking up a PS3 because its so low priced right now.

It'll be interesting to see who comes out in second, but hey I'll see you on the MW2 battlefield. Just pray you're not on the other side of my scope.
>:D
 

Rathy

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Aug 21, 2008
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xXGINGERGNOMEXx said:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.
I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.
 

Georgeman

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What?! The sky is falling!!! The sea is turning red!!! Run for your lives!!! An analyst admits that the Wii will win but is not doomed! Unbelievable!
Geo Da Sponge said:
Apparently Captain Obvious has got a job as an industry analyst.
Well it's better to be Captain Obvious Analyst than Michael "KingofIdiots" Pachter.
 

Gigaguy64

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Apr 22, 2009
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Rathy said:
xXGINGERGNOMEXx said:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.
I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.
Though quality can be interpreted differently.
If its the Wii's game quality then yes things like graphics will cause it to loose a little and it does have a lot of "money games" but the Wii still has a large amount of Quality games, Game-play wise, and Enjoyability wise.
The 360 does as well but it dosent have the amount of family games that a lot of people are starting to look for.
And if you mean Quality as in life span, mine has fallen off its perch, been dropped., and pulled down numerous times and still works like the day we got it. :)
 

BehattedWanderer

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Jun 24, 2009
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I'll respectfully disagree with that analysis--2008 and 2009 were the years for the Wii, but with both the nice shiny new price drop in the PS3 and the improved, smaller, stronger PS3 Slim, and with no real relevant change in the 360, I see the PS3 taking market in 2010. High definition has definitely caused a market resurgence, and of the three, PS3 has the best to offer--and that's not even mentioning the cheap Blu-Ray Player that comes within. It was the same way with the PS2, that part of its use was that it was versatile. The Wii is there for entertainment, and very few people think of their Xbox when they want to watch a movie--but there is quite a large group of people who don't have a dvd player, but have a perfectly functional PS2/PS3. The Xbox will continue to stay strong, but without an impressive innovation, they will continue to ride the middle. And while I seriously doubt Nintendo will be content to just sit back and watch Sony ride the wave, it won't be in 2010 that they can do anything about it. Playstation has pushed themselves forward, redesigning the console, making it smaller and more powerful, while the little white cube's innovation is that it might now come in the special black, and Microsoft's astounding innovation was to mimic the price drop without increasing the potential that the Slim now provides. And while it's too late in 2009 for anyone but the Wii, I very easily see the PS3 taking market next year.
 

Rathy

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Gigaguy64 said:
Rathy said:
xXGINGERGNOMEXx said:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.
I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.
Though quality can be interpreted differently.
If its the Wii's game quality then yes things like graphics will cause it to loose a little and it does have a lot of "money games" but the Wii still has a large amount of Quality games, Game-play wise, and Enjoyability wise.
The 360 does as well but it dosent have the amount of family games that a lot of people are starting to look for.
And if you mean Quality as in life span, mine has fallen off its perch, been dropped., and pulled down numerous times and still works like the day we got it. :)
Of course it has quality games, or it wouldn't be in the race. My issue is that its quality games are easily rivaled by the other systems in the end, but at the same time the other consoles quality games tend to outsell the Wii's quality games. Hence why its still a 3 way race to me, not the Wii a clear winner.

And by quality I mean good games in general, being the ones that sell well and 'tend' to review favorably.
 

The Rockerfly

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Dec 31, 2008
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Thanks goes out to my mum and little brother for beating my console of choice with a decent selection of games and good controls while there's doesn't

Just goes to show quality means squat
 

Pendragon9

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Geo Da Sponge said:
Apparently Captain Obvious has got a job as an industry analyst.
My thoughts exactly.

Anyway, to agree with alot of people here, we shouldn't give a crap about the console wars. This guy is just trying to get attention by stating the obvious. But then again, all analysts are douches, so I'm not surprised.

BehattedWanderer said:
I'll respectfully disagree with that analysis--2008 and 2009 were the years for the Wii, but with both the nice shiny new price drop in the PS3 and the improved, smaller, stronger PS3 Slim, and with no real relevant change in the 360, I see the PS3 taking market in 2010. High definition has definitely caused a market resurgence, and of the three, PS3 has the best to offer--and that's not even mentioning the cheap Blu-Ray Player that comes within. It was the same way with the PS2, that part of its use was that it was versatile. The Wii is there for entertainment, and very few people think of their Xbox when they want to watch a movie--but there is quite a large group of people who don't have a dvd player, but have a perfectly functional PS2/PS3. The Xbox will continue to stay strong, but without an impressive innovation, they will continue to ride the middle. And while I seriously doubt Nintendo will be content to just sit back and watch Sony ride the wave, it won't be in 2010 that they can do anything about it. Playstation has pushed themselves forward, redesigning the console, making it smaller and more powerful, while the little white cube's innovation is that it might now come in the special black, and Microsoft's astounding innovation was to mimic the price drop without increasing the potential that the Slim now provides. And while it's too late in 2009 for anyone but the Wii, I very easily see the PS3 taking market next year.
I also see this happening in the future. Seems like pretty solid logic.

But I'm praying people will forget this whole motion control nonsense. It's not gaming. It's a distraction. Nothing more.
 

MR T3D

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Feb 21, 2009
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...console sales don't count, as far as i'm concerned, given thing like the bit where I haven't bought a wii game in a very long time, and that our 2nd gen 360 is broken after warranty, meaning my family is apparently picking up another one.
Wii is a novel concept, but its also just that- a novelty.
 

iblis666

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Sep 8, 2008
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ive a xbox 360 plus a good amount of games and now its time to buy a ps3 but i will never buy the wii for the simple fact that its a last gen system with a novelty device tacked on
 

Xbowhyena

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Nintendo's main purpose is to make money, not make good games. They've made the most money and therefore have won. This is how much I care about conoles.

On another note, I just opened a pack of M&Ms and more than half of them are yellow.
 

dmase

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I figured the wii was gonna be the winner, cheaper seems better these days especially with nintendo's target market... everybody and their grandma.

I did not know Sony would be supporting the ps3 until 2016, that is a godsend for me. By then i should have money to spend freely... if my really old ps3 is still working then.
 

ChromeAlchemist

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xXGINGERGNOMEXx said:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.
It's my main console. And my favourite console.

And really I don't think people should care. However since I'm here, PS3 IMO will come second since it will get cheaper, as it's offering more for less. I think the Wii is too much of a popular brand now for Natal to make a huge difference.

And lol at Wii bashing. It's like you have to be paid to be civil nowadays.
 

ChromeAlchemist

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dmase said:
I figured the wii was gonna be the winner, cheaper seems better these days especially with nintendo's target market... everybody and their grandma.

I did not know Sony would be supporting the ps3 until 2016, that is a godsend for me. By then i should have money to spend freely... if my really old ps3 is still working then.
One decade is how their consoles are always supported. It was like that for the PS1, PS2 and now the PS3.