2019-2020 coronavirus pandemic

lil devils x

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Not my fault that I don't know the "shop talk" terms for various medical terms.
Yes, it actually is. If you don't know, " shop talk" then you don't know enough about the subject you are discussing to be able to give educated advice on it. You keep telling everyone they are wrong and you are right and using examples that have not been peer reviewed. That is why " armchair medical advice" is universally condemned, even among those in the medical and scientific community who disagree among themselves. Just so you understand, we have studies that show us all sorts of amazing things that turn out to be inaccurate and lack an ability to replicate those results. You put too much faith in some Youtube videos. If this were accurate, you would be hearing about it all over the news in every nation on earth right now. You are not hearing this everywhere because the way you are presenting it isn't accurate. AND please, I am tired of hearing about Somalis in Sweden. We have much larger studies that have much larger Somali populations that are more relevant than this small study in Sweden. We ALREADY understand the impact of vitamin D deficiencies, that is not new information. People are already being treated with vitamin D and the rest of their daily nutritional requirements while they are in the hospital, this is not as relevant as you think it is to their patient outcomes. It isn't like we haven't ALREADY been giving patients vitamin D this entire time or something. That was already happening, even in the patients that died.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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You want to hear this shit because it's better than the alternative: that treatment is still in development, a vaccine is still like a year away on the optimistic side, and there's probably no cure as a doctor would define it and you just have to outlive the infection. Those thoughts certainly scare me. And I would hope most others would understand why. Some of the outlier studies may turn out to be right, but the odds of that being so are not great. Science relies on a consensus derived from multiple data points. And I mean like ALLLLLL the data points. One of your videos, posted by a medical professional on their assessment of the virus and how it differs from the current community's consensus is still a single data point. And if they base their assessment on a single study, that one study is still a single data point.

This is not to say you can't tell bullshit when you see it. Rather, your argument leaps to conclusions in defiance of the current consensus. And compared to the data that formed the consensus, your evidence is looking a little unconvincing in comparison. I never became a biologist because I'm just another hirsute lug with a limited attention span. I do not have the temperament needed for lab or field work by any stretch. That said, I find it helpful to try to pick up enough about it as I go so that I can recognize just how much I still don't know. Like I said before, nobody is immune to Dunning-Krueger because you don't know what you don't know. But if you regularly remind yourself there's stuff you don't know, it's easier to keep perspective.

Said it before, say it again: It's not enough to wear the mantle of Galileo. You have to be right.
What is the current consensus? You probably wouldn't think that hydroxychloroquine is being used as a treatment (due to how politicized it has been in the US) but the hospital in Spain that did the Vitamin D trial (which are continuing to do it so more data will be coming soon) treats Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine as a standard treatment. I most likely already had Covid so me trying to find a treatment for myself isn't anything I really care about, though helping friends and family if anyone gets it is useful. Also, everything that I have been recommending (from other doctors) is not harmful to take; if it works, that's cool; if it doesn't, it's not going to harm you. Just looking at the hard numbers of the death rates, I already know that for myself, the virus is less deadly than driving to work so again, the virus doesn't scare me much at all, driving is a higher priority fear than the virus. Also, if you look at the hospitalization rates and deaths rates now per say 1,000 infections, they have plummeted across pretty much every country. And, those numbers are all before any possible treatments that I've found that reduce those numbers even more. I most likely have jumped too hard on Vitamin D treatment but every single bit a data over months that we have with regards to Vitamin D all points to the same thing (that it's very important). I totally wasn't expecting Vitamin D treatment (post infection and especially post person needing to go to the hospital) to be anything that would work too well as I was expecting it would be too late for it to work. I expected it to work proactively but not as a treatment.

Yes, it actually is. If you don't know, " shop talk" then you don't know enough about the subject you are discussing to be able to give educated advice on it. You keep telling everyone they are wrong and you are right and using examples that have not been peer reviewed. That is why " armchair medical advice" is universally condemned, even among those in the medical and scientific community who disagree among themselves. Just so you understand, we have studies that show us all sorts of amazing things that turn out to be inaccurate and lack an ability to replicate those results. You put too much faith in some Youtube videos. If this were accurate, you would be hearing about it all over the news in every nation on earth right now. You are not hearing this everywhere because the way you are presenting it isn't accurate. AND please, I am tired of hearing about Somalis in Sweden. We have much larger studies that have much larger Somali populations that are more relevant than this small study in Sweden. We ALREADY understand the impact of vitamin D deficiencies, that is not new information. People are already being treated with vitamin D and the rest of their daily nutritional requirements while they are in the hospital, this is not as relevant as you think it is to their patient outcomes. It isn't like we haven't ALREADY been giving patients vitamin D this entire time or something. That was already happening, even in the patients that died.
The study that says SARS grants Covid immunity is peer reviewed but apparently you don't pay attention to my sources and just hand wave them away. I'm NOT telling anyone that I AM RIGHT and THEY ARE WRONG, I'm telling them these DOCTORS that are EXPERTS are probably RIGHT. You're not arguing with me when you say a SARS vaccine (if we had one) wouldn't work for Covid, you're arguing with Dr. Peter Hotez and also the fact that SARS does grant Covid immunity. I'm not giving "armchair medical advice", I'm telling people the advice that doctors are giving.

What kind of Vitamin D do people get when normally treated? And what dose of Vitamin D do they give? when compared to the Vitamin D trial.

And I keep talking about the groups like the Somali Swedes because you keep claiming they could be deficient due to lack of oxygen during infection; however, they've all been known to already be Vitamin D deficient. Plus, if Vitamin D is something they're naturally given during treatment, then how is the lack of oxygen making them deficient at death when they're getting it at the hospital? Your line of logic doesn't add up.

Also, you always fail to answer my questions. Why would you post about Covid having 30+ strains if not to mislead people? What was the point of posting that when all it would do is lead people to believe it would be another flu (when it has the opposite properties of the flu with regards to replication)?

You have been saying that "it seems" people can get reinfected after 3 months, that is not accurate and against ALL the data we have on the virus. Also, the paper that says someone got reinfected is NOT PEER REVIEWED. Why are you allowed to talk about stuff that isn't peer reviewed and I'm not allow to talk about stuff that is peer reviewed? IIRC it's like 8 or 9% of people don't develop anti-bodies (which the guy in question did not on his 1st infection) so those people getting reinfected doesn't mean much to how long lasting the immunity is. The stuff I have posted about the virus months ago has been pretty much all inline with the most current data we have today.
 
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lil devils x

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Vitamin D3 is the supplement that is given to address deficiencies. They are able to determine if you have deficiency easily and repeatedly while you are in the hospital , as this is something they check regularly.They adjust your supplement levels to address any deficiencies. In fact, any time you have had your blood tested in the ER, you can ask to see your results and have them go over them so they can show you your levels if you like.

This is considered a reputable source for information available to the general public on Vitamin D:

You are again misrepresenting what was discussed. Discussing the numerous strains was in direct relation to the increased probability of a more concerning mutation to occur. It is about " probability". This is why " shop talk" is important here. The reason we want to reduce the number of people being exposed to the virus is not just to prevent deaths and severe illness in those patients. We want to reduce the spread in order to PREVENT a more concerning mutation that can occur. Every time the virus enters a new host, the virus is exposed to a " new unique environment" within that host, as each person's immune system is unique to that person, exposing the virus to what that person has been exposed to. Whether it is other viruses, diseases, medication, illicit drugs, foods, ect and the hosts unique immune system, and the unique combinations thereof, the virus is now coming into contact with something new each time it is spread increasing the probability that at some point it will mutate again. Each time it mutates we are at risk of a mutation that could become concerning. Most mutations are insignificant. However even the insignificant mutations may later form the gateway for another more severe mutation to occur. Like the mutation that doesn't really matter could actually be the building block for worse mutations later so we still have to track that strain. We want to limit the number of people exposed before we have a viable vaccine because we want to reduce the number of these mutations, even the insignificant ones so that we reduce the likelihood of more severe ones forming later.

So when I am discussing the importance that we have all these 'insignificant" mutation strains limited, it is not because their current form is dangerous, it is that the more of them we have increases the chances for a more severe one to form from them. It is just increasing the probability of it happening. Claiming those strains don't matter or are not strains defeats the purpose of needing to prevent them from happening so that we reduce the odds of worse happening later. Understand now? I hope I explained that plainly enough for it to be clear. We need to reduce the number of people being infected to PREVENT that from happening before we have some better means to combat the virus so that something worse doesn't happen between now and then.

Yes, we have had cases of people being reinfected. They have it documented now with actual proof, not speculation, but documented proof. They had two different sequences of the virus this time:

What’s the deal with the Nevada case?

"The Reno resident in question first tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in April after coming down with a sore throat, cough, and headache, as well as nausea and diarrhea. He got better over time and later tested negative twice.

But then, some 48 days later, the man started experiencing headaches, cough, and other symptoms again. Eventually, he became so sick that he had to be hospitalized and was found to have pneumonia.

Researchers sequenced virus samples from both of his infections and found they were different, providing evidence that this was a new infection distinct from the first."



Again you are making claims that are not true. It is not according to " all" the data we have. We have data now showing that he was verifiably infected twice, and the second time was worse than the first. This isn't a study, this is a verifiable fact. The problem is we do not know how long it takes someone to be reinfected until it starts happening and we can document it. That is what we are doing now.
 
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Buyetyen

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What is the current consensus? You probably wouldn't think that hydroxychloroquine is being used as a treatment (due to how politicized it has been in the US) but the hospital in Spain that did the Vitamin D trial (which are continuing to do it so more data will be coming soon) treats Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine as a standard treatment. I most likely already had Covid so me trying to find a treatment for myself isn't anything I really care about, though helping friends and family if anyone gets it is useful. Also, everything that I have been recommending (from other doctors) is not harmful to take; if it works, that's cool; if it doesn't, it's not going to harm you. Just looking at the hard numbers of the death rates, I already know that for myself, the virus is less deadly than driving to work so again, the virus doesn't scare me much at all, driving is a higher priority fear than the virus. Also, if you look at the hospitalization rates and deaths rates now per say 1,000 infections, they have plummeted across pretty much every country. And, those numbers are all before any possible treatments that I've found that reduce those numbers even more. I most likely have jumped too hard on Vitamin D treatment but every single bit a data over months that we have with regards to Vitamin D all points to the same thing (that it's very important). I totally wasn't expecting Vitamin D treatment (post infection and especially post person needing to go to the hospital) to be anything that would work too well as I was expecting it would be too late for it to work. I expected it to work proactively but not as a treatment.
I'm going to leave this to more qualified people to explain. I've said my piece.
 

Gethsemani

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What is the current consensus? You probably wouldn't think that hydroxychloroquine is being used as a treatment (due to how politicized it has been in the US) but the hospital in Spain that did the Vitamin D trial (which are continuing to do it so more data will be coming soon) treats Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine as a standard treatment. I most likely already had Covid so me trying to find a treatment for myself isn't anything I really care about, though helping friends and family if anyone gets it is useful. Also, everything that I have been recommending (from other doctors) is not harmful to take; if it works, that's cool; if it doesn't, it's not going to harm you. Just looking at the hard numbers of the death rates, I already know that for myself, the virus is less deadly than driving to work so again, the virus doesn't scare me much at all, driving is a higher priority fear than the virus. Also, if you look at the hospitalization rates and deaths rates now per say 1,000 infections, they have plummeted across pretty much every country. And, those numbers are all before any possible treatments that I've found that reduce those numbers even more. I most likely have jumped too hard on Vitamin D treatment but every single bit a data over months that we have with regards to Vitamin D all points to the same thing (that it's very important). I totally wasn't expecting Vitamin D treatment (post infection and especially post person needing to go to the hospital) to be anything that would work too well as I was expecting it would be too late for it to work. I expected it to work proactively but not as a treatment.
The current consensus seems to be that there is no magic bullet. Vitamin D can be an important part of Covid-19 treatment, as can hydroxychloroquine in some instances (at the same time, several studies have shown increased mortality when it was used on patients with severe Covid-19 complications), but mostly it comes down to corticosteroids, keeping patients sedated and assisting breathing for the duration of the worst symptoms. In general, this is a good takeaway for any discussion related to healthcare: There is no magic bullet. The best practice is almost always a combination of several treatments that each on their own might provide only a limited effect.

We can see now that Covid-19 is not as lethal as first expected, but a part of that is also that Covid-19 can at any time become more lethal if the healthcare system can't cope with the increased demand (as was seen in Italy, for example). The moment there are no more ICU or IMU (intermediary medical unit) beds available, people will start dying at a much higher frequency due to lack of available care. We should also keep in mind that infection rates are now increasing across most of Europe (Sweden exempted) and going into full lockdown is not an option this time around, which means that it is uncertain how this "second wave" will play out, whether it is a temporary increase or the start of a more protracted rise in Covid-19 infections with all the associated problems.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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Vitamin D3

We want to reduce the spread in order to PREVENT a more concerning mutation that can occur.

Yes, we have had cases of people being reinfected. They have it documented now with actual proof, not speculation, but documented proof. They had two different sequences of the virus this time:

Again you are making claims that are not true. It is not according to " all" the data we have. We have data now showing that he was verifiably infected twice, and the second time was worse than the first. This isn't a study, this is a verifiable fact. The problem is we do not know how long it takes someone to be reinfected until it starts happening and we can document it. That is what we are doing now.
They didn't give vitamin D3 in the trial, they gave the vitamin D, calcifediol, that doesn't need to be processed by the liver so the body can use it much faster.

I completely understand that less people getting infect is good (for numerous other reasons too) but to post something about the virus having all these strains is extremely misleading. The chances are extremely unlikely that this virus will be able to mutate into something significantly worse. It's not the flu that basically can't make exact copies of itself.

All the relevant data we have is pointing to long-lasting immunity (years), not 3-month immunity. I never said you can't get infected twice or that it hasn't happened. I wasn't challenging the validity of the paper about the Hong Kong man (or challenging your article here), I was saying it wasn't meaningful towards gauging the length of immunity (or needing say a yearly vaccine like the flu) because it's expected that people that didn't develop anti-bodies (which is right around 10% IIRC) would be able to get it again. The Hong Kong man was literally known to have not developed anti-bodies the 1st time.

I'm going to leave this to more qualified people to explain. I've said my piece.
My point with that post was mainly that how do you know what I'm posting is even against the current consensus? I'm pretty damn sure those doctors doing daily videos on the virus are not radical contrarians in the medical field.

The current consensus seems to be that there is no magic bullet. Vitamin D can be an important part of Covid-19 treatment, as can hydroxychloroquine in some instances (at the same time, several studies have shown increased mortality when it was used on patients with severe Covid-19 complications), but mostly it comes down to corticosteroids, keeping patients sedated and assisting breathing for the duration of the worst symptoms. In general, this is a good takeaway for any discussion related to healthcare: There is no magic bullet. The best practice is almost always a combination of several treatments that each on their own might not provide a limited effect.

We can see now that Covid-19 is not as lethal as first expected, but a part of that is also that Covid-19 can at any time become more lethal if the healthcare system can't cope with the increased demand (as was seen in Italy, for example). The moment there are no more ICU or IMU (intermediary medical unit) beds available, people will start dying at a much higher frequency due to lack of available care. We should also keep in mind that infection rates are now increasing across most of Europe (Sweden exempted) and going into full lockdown is not an option this time around, which means that it is uncertain how this "second wave" will play out, whether it is a temporary increase or the start of a more protracted rise in Covid-19 infections with all the associated problems.
The Vitamin D trial has so far been the brightest as to potentially finding anything close to a magic bullet. The hospital is continuing the trial so we'll have more data from them at least. The mortality rates were always way off from the start because of how many unknown infections there are. But, yeah, the virus is getting less lethal for several hypothesized factors like people being aware (distancing/wearing masks) so the initial viral load is lower than it was before to the virus sadly being able to hit a high percentage of vulnerable people early on. So far with what I saw last with the infections going up, the hospitalizations are not going up near equal to the increased infections. I don't feel like looking up the exact numbers but if like 1 in 100 infections needed hospitalization before, now it's like 1 in 1,000. Again, probably not close to exact but hospitalizations are significantly down per infection. Yeah, as long as we don't overwhelm healthcare, a decent enough job is being done. I was never a fan of the lockdowns outside of the early hotspots because we were only pausing "the movie", we weren't fast-forwarding it. There was no way we'd be able to stay locked down for the time it takes to find a "magic bullet" or develop a vaccine so we needed to learn how to live with it without ending up like early NYC or Italy.
 

Buyetyen

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I'm pretty damn sure those doctors doing daily videos on the virus are not radical contrarians in the medical field.
You have several medical professionals and biological scientists in this thread telling you where and how you're wrong and you keep replying, "But this YT video..." You are a walking talking Dunning-Krueger.
 
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Kwak

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The statistics are complicated. 40-90% of positives in the US aren't meaningfully positive, we report anyone who died with one of those positive tests in our covid data, you can see where it might get messed up.
Then pretty easy to adjust for that by comparing the monthly death rates vs previous years.
 

Phoenixmgs

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You have several medical professionals and biological scientists in this thread telling you where and how you're wrong and you keep replying, "But this YT video..." You are a walking talking Dunning-Krueger.
What I posted months ago is far more inline with our current knowledge and data than what many others were posting. I linked to the Youtube video because it's easier to digest than reading a paper, which is linked in the description of the Youtube video. Hell, you can go back to the old v1 forums and I literally outlined what ended up being Japan's plan before Japan even had a plan except I said to cut social interactions by 90% and Japan aimed for 80%, and Japan is doing way better than the US. I posted this article on page 15 here and here's an excerpt from the article "'We could have had this ready to go and been testing the vaccine's efficacy at the start of this new outbreak in China,' said Hotez, who believes the vaccine could provide cross-protection against the new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19. 'There is a problem with the ecosystem in vaccine development, and we've got to fix this.'" Yet the medical professionals here disagreed with Dr. Hotez and the fact that SARS immunity does provide cross-protection to Covid has basically proved that Dr. Hotez's hypothesis was correct.
 

tstorm823

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Then pretty easy to adjust for that by comparing the monthly death rates vs previous years.
It isn't actually easy to do that. Some places have fewer than expected deaths from previous years, including a handful of US states. People die for all sorts of reasons: we know there's been like a 20% spike in overdoses, we know suicidal thoughts are up but nobody is publishing actual suicide data so that's a best guess scenario, we know crime waves are happening, we know cancer treatments have been postponed. You can't wash the secondary effects of the pandemic out of excess mortality numbers. It's not an easy statistic.
 

SilentPony

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Anyone see this?

Apparently she has evidence the T-Virus is a man-altered virus from a research lab in Wuhan. I always suspected it was, but I definitely want to see her proof because its a hugely important claim.
 

Baffle

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Anyone see this?

Apparently she has evidence the T-Virus is a man-altered virus from a research lab in Wuhan. I always suspected it was, but I definitely want to see her proof because its a hugely important claim.
Loose Women. Loose Women?! LOOSE WOMEN?! This does not seem like the correct outlet for important news. It's like Trump going on Geraldo to announce he's found Obama's birth certificate. But with lower viewing figures.
 
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SupahEwok

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Anyone see this?

Apparently she has evidence the T-Virus is a man-altered virus from a research lab in Wuhan. I always suspected it was, but I definitely want to see her proof because its a hugely important claim.
You know that your source is basically a tabloid, right?
 

XsjadoBlayde

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Pro-tip: If anyone needs to confirm their bias through a daily mail article reporting on loose women, it might indicate that particular bias is a little flimsy to say the least.
 
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Baffle

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You know that your source is basically a tabloid, right?
Not even that good mate. It's a tabloid you found under the hedge while you were looking for niche porn mags. The back half isn't even porn, it's adverts for signed photos of David Mellor dressed in the Chelsea away strip, but without the shorts. The shirt is long enough to maintain his (and your) dignity, but you know it's there. Lurking.
 
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Agema

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Apparently she has evidence the T-Virus is a man-altered virus from a research lab in Wuhan. I always suspected it was, but I definitely want to see her proof because its a hugely important claim.
I'm willing to bet that claim is right up there with the ones from this other virologist: