Microsoft Predicts 3 Million Kinect Sales Over the Holidays

[Logan Westbrook]

Microsoft Predicts 3 Million Kinect Sales Over the Holidays

Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg thinks that Kinect launch will be bigger than that of the Xbox 360 itself.

Motion controls are one of the more heated battles in the console war. Nintendo struck the first blow with the Wii, and now Microsoft and Sony are entering the fray with Kinect [http://www.amazon.com/Kinect-Sensor-Adventures-Xbox-360/dp/B002BSA298/ref=sr_1_2?s=videogames&ie=UTF8&qid=1284635087&sr=1-2] and Move [http://www.amazon.com/Playstation-Move-Starter-Bundle-3/dp/B002I0J4NE/ref=sr_1_1?s=videogames&ie=UTF8&qid=1284636157&sr=1-1]. Sony has warned [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/103353-Sony-Says-Move-is-Not-Necessarily-a-Pre-Order-Product] that Move sales might start off a little slow, but Microsoft seems more confident with Kinect, predicting that millions of people will buy the system when it launches in November.

Xbox product director Greenberg said that by Microsoft's estimates, Kinect was going to sell three million units over the holiday season. He said that that figure was based on retailer feedback - which Greenberg said was very sophisticated - as well as Microsoft's own research. According to Greenberg, Microsoft is spending more on marketing Kinect than it did on the launch of the Xbox 360, and believes it will be more successful.

This enormous spend, said to be hundreds of millions of dollars, is because Microsoft is treating the launch of Kinect like the launch of a new platform, and Greenberg reiterated [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/102998-Microsoft-Kinect-To-Last-Five-Years-3D-Common-in-Three] that it would extend the lifespan of the 360 for another five years. "I think what [Kinect] enables us to do," he said. "Is to keep things fresh, enable developers to bring new IP to the market, and enables people to have new experience."

Microsoft's predictions aren't that far from the numbers that market analysts have been reporting. Last month, Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets upped [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/102755-Analyst-Ups-Predictions-for-Kinect-Shipments] his estimate on the numbers of Kinect units Microsoft would ship based on retailer numbers, and Caris & Company analyst Sandeep Aggarwal believes [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/102028-Kinect-Could-Give-Microsoft-Billion-Dollar-Revenue-Boost-Says-Analyst] that Kinect will generate a billion dollars of revenue in its first year.

Kinect hits the market on November, and then we'll be able to see if Microsoft's investment has paid off.

Source: Gamasutra [http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/30452/TGS_Kinects_To_Sell_3_Million_Extend_Generation_Says_MS_Greenberg.php]


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[Autofaux]

Perhaps. Or maybe this'll happen in a field of dreams with lollipop fields and chestnut trees with unicorns and its 150 dollars US, 3 million is pushing the estimate just a bit.

 

[Kapol]

So I see Microsoft has joined the path of the delusional. It is a fun path, to be sure, and one that many seem to be joining with people saying the Move is original or that the Kinect will be wildly successful within the first few months.

 

[Gralian]

I'd be surprised if it even generates one million. Honestly, i'll eat my (top) hat and dance on the moon.

Why? Firstly, wii sales have already begun to decline. Not because of the HD motion control craze, but because that demographic has reached saturation point. All the mums, grannies and girlfriends already have a wii. There's no need to buy another one and there's certainly no need to buy a shinier, more expensive version.

Hardcore gamers aren't going to touch this thing and casual gamers aren't going to shell out christ knows how much more for a shinier version when they probably already have a perfectly good wii in the living room. Not only that but people with a wii probably won't even own a 360 unless there's a hardcore gamer in the household; do they really thin casual gamers are going to dig into their wallets for a new xbox AND a kinect?

 

[DiscoAtThePanic]

First day sales mean nithing just like first weekend ticket sales. It will remain to be seen how well the Kinect sells after the initial hype passes and word of mouth comes down about how it performs and how much fun the games are.

 

[Plinglebob]

When they say retailers numbers, I'm guessing they use the number of pre-orders and extrapolate up. I wouldn't be surprised if it broke the Million Units barrier, but three sounds a little optimistic.

 

[Abedeus]

Why does every article with Kinect have a screenshot of bowling, tennis or something you may as well do in real life?

 

[geret]

thanks for information!

 

[The_root_of_all_evil]

Microsoft Predicts 3 Million Kinect Sales Over the Holidays

Root predicts 30,000. Tune in next time to see who's closer.

 

[GeneticallyModifiedDucks]

I think I've already said this before, but we are in serious trouble if this thing is successful. All evidence points to the contrary obviously, but that's a big scary IF, imo.

 

[Dexiro]

I wouldn't be entirely suprised. Microsoft could market a turd and soon everyone would be hyped up and ready to go buy one.

 

[epsilon246]

They think they are going to sell three million of something that barely worked at E3? are they mad.

 

[The Human Torch]

Well, all I know is that I won't be part of those 3 million. I am not a Wii-natic either, it's just a massive waste of time and money.

 

[steamweedlegoblin]

It will be entertaining to see just how wrong this prediction is.

 

[Evilsanta]

Wwwaayyy to high expections i must say...

Perhaps. Or maybe this'll happen in a field of dreams with lollipop fields and chestnut trees with unicorns and its 150 dollars US, 3 million is pushing the estimate just a bit.

And this...Why not try find the Loch Ness monster instead. It's has a higher succes rate than 3 million sales.

 

[Me55enger]

I can predict that approximately 3 million receipts will be kept in a safe place shortly after Kinect's release.

Too little too late. Nintendo has the market honey, deal with it.

 

[Celtic_Kerr]

And here is something that didn't predict: For every dollar they fall short of their goal, I will kick Aaron Greenberg in the shins once! I just need the money to get down there.

You'd think they'd listen to the public, seee aforum or two and notice "NO ONE LOVES YOU KINECT! We don't want you in our homes, we don't love you, do die in a gutter!" plastered in amssive letters about this site. But no, they check the XBOX forums where the fan boys sit (All three of them, in the same room)

So yes! If you fund my epic mission, I will show Microsoft what we think!

 

[Delusibeta]

I'm fairly sure they'll hit half that and call it a success. Motion controls are probably inevitable on the next generation of consoles anyway.

 

[wooty]

Call in the Health and Safety people to the MS building, theres clearly something in the water.

This may show that MS isnt listening to the gaming community who, from what I've seen, are treating Natal with a certain air of.........*sigh*.

I can see this happening a lot sooner http://www.vgcats.com/comics/?strip_id=294

 

[Javex]

How about this, Microsoft. If you manage to sell three million Kinects, I'll buy one. Right after I start a snow shoveling business in Hell.