Analyst Predicts Warfighter Disaster

[Andy Chalk]

Analyst Predicts Warfighter Disaster

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Industry analyst Doug Creutz says EA's Medal of Honor: Warfighter might "struggle" to sell two million units worldwide.

Here are just a few of the problems facing Medal of Honor: Warfighter. It launches just weeks ahead of the guaranteed mega-hits Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, Halo 4 and Assassin's Creed 3. (I like to think that Far Cry 3 will have the sand to cause it some headaches too.) It's marketing campaign is once again relying heavily on ridiculous Linkin Park videos. And its predecessor, the 2010 Medal of Honor reboot, was pretty much terrible.

All that has led Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Creutz to state that the game "appears likely to be a major disappointment." The firm believes that sales expectations have "moderated significantly" to just three to four million units, but even that figure may be too high. "Based on our read of pre-release tracking data, we think the game might struggle to sell through two million units worldwide," he said.

Those concerns are bolstered by EA's decision to hold back review copies of Warfighter until the game launches. "With only a week before a murderer's row of AAA titles begins to come out (Assassin's Creed III on October 30; Halo 4 on November 6; Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 on November 13), we think Medal of Honor: Warfighter has a very short window to capture sales, and a dearth of reviews is unlikely to help," Creutz said. "The decision to make early review copies unavailable does not suggest to us that the company has a high degree of confidence in the quality of the game."

And as Medal of Honor goes, so too goes Electronic Arts. EA Sports releases are apparently doing very well but not well enough to offset underperformance by Warfighter, especially since Creutz believes that Star Wars: The Old Republic has also performed well below EA's guidance. And with the final quarter of the fiscal year headlined by just Crysis 3, Dead Space 3, Army of Two: The Devil's Cartel and the new Fuse, Creutz said, "We continue to believe that EA management will have to lower guidance meaningfully for FY13 at some point."

"Lower guidance," for those unfamiliar with financial parlance, means admitting that you're going to make a whole lot less money than you said you would at the start of the year.

Medal of Honor: Warfighter [http://www.amazon.com/Warfighter-Limited-Edition-Exclusive-Xbox-360/dp/B0050SY5BM/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1350932552&sr=8-1&keywords=Medal+of+Honor%3A+Warfighter] comes out on October 23 for the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, Wii U and PC.


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[DTWolfwood]

Gameplay isn't all that impressive. Multiplayer is essentially copying COD. The amount of time and money they spent promoting this game is comparable to their first MOH reboot.

Nothing so far has pointed to it being a smash hit game.

Probably not a good time to have EA stocks ppl.

 

[Gearhead mk2]

Maybe this will be the thing that finally kills EA, or at least takes away most of it's power. We can only hope.

 

[LordNerevar]

wanna know why it will suck? not because of poor release dates, no. because linkin park is their advertisement......

 

[yuval152]

I already knew that when I played the beta, one of the worst games of 2012.

Maybe this will be the thing that finally kills EA, or at least takes away most of it's power. We can only hope.

Ninja'd. I really hope it happens.

 

[jollybarracuda]

It does appear that EA's poor management and dreadful PR might finally be catching up to them. While they are still a powerhouse in the industry, a lot of negative information has been surrounding them; Dead Space 3 needing to sell 5 million units, Medal of Honor series is becoming exponentially less relevant, BioWare isn't releasing the monumentally successful games they were hoping for. It'd be a shame for such a huge company to become bankrupt and lose all those jobs, but for the industry, not having a company like EA that buys out and runs smaller studios into the ground, could be a very good thing.

 

[SonOfVoorhees]

I do find it funny they release a game in October to December and moan at lack of sales. Release it in the summer. No competition. Ive always found it strange that winter is the time for releasing games, eventhough every single game is released in winter. Way to much competition.

Also Medal of Honour games are a poor man MW/Cod, and i like neither since they moved for WW2. Modern guns are so boring. But i still think it will sell enough to make a profit.

 

[Eruanno]

I had already forgotten this game even existed... :3

 

[Legion]

It actually would have been smarter to try and push for a summer release while the game line-up was so small. They'd have an open market, a good time to sell (all the kids on holiday), and they'd have the chance of catching sales on impulse by people who don't have anything else to pick up.

Trying to release a sequel to a failure of a game when around 4 sequels to very successful series are just around the corner seems to be a very foolish idea.

 

[WanderingFool]

Hey... anyone remember when Linkin Park was so fucking Angst-y?

OT:

Maybe this will be the thing that finally kills EA, or at least takes away most of it's power. We can only hope.

As much as many may hope, its doubtful that Warfighter failing will do anything to even phase EA.

 

[VincentX3]

Ooooh now they want to "predict" disasters

They should have "predicted" Mass Effect's 3 ending.

 

[SonOfMethuselah]

I don't understand why EA even bothered with this game. Aren't they the publisher of Battlefield. You know, a game that actually has a chance at competing with Call of Duty. It seems really strange that they're pushing (or, rather, failing to push) another first-person shooter set in the modern day. I know they love their money, but after the last MOH game flopped like it did, you think they'd have smartened up.

Off-topic:

I didn't think that any game had a worse release date than DmC.

Learn something new every day.

DmC is supposed to release in January, right? There's not a whole lot else that hits around then. February and March would have been the really poor choices.

 

[WorriedSandwich]

It isn't going to be nearly as much of a bomb as FUSE. If that game won't shake EA out of dudebroing everything, nothing ever will.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

At risk of sounding somewhat petty and spiteful, I kind of hope this is a flop; it might actually galvanise EA into getting their act together and not doing stuff like 'broadening the appeal' of their games (I'm not even a Dead Space fan and I'm still annoyed by what they're making 3 look like) or treating the customer like a brainless walking wallet.

Considering that this is EA, though, it probably won't...

 

[Slayer_2]

I actually liked the modern Medal of Honor game, although I hated the title. The ending was pretty good, and the gameplay was okay, although I would have liked less linearity, and more realistic weapon handling.

 

[The White Hunter]

I actually liked the modern Medal of Honor game, although I hated the title. The ending was pretty good, and the gameplay was okay, although I would have liked less linearity, and more realistic weapon handling.

I agree the last game was pretty good, especially the campaign. The title was just "Medal of Honor" wasn't it? That's what my box says at any rate.

Honestly you know what I predict? Shitty ports on PC and PS3 since the Beta was 360 exclusive. I'm still gonna give it a go though, hopefully the story will still be excellent and the multiplayer a mild distraction (it can't be as off as the last ones multiplayer, it just can't, that game was bizarre, I mean there were only 3 guns per class and it was still unbalanced, that MP7 was fucking obnoxious).

I also predict that it will be outsold, much like everything else, by CoDBlops 2 (so, is the new zombies mode like Left 4 DEad or what? Seriously I want an explanation.).

 

[Slycne]

I do find it funny they release a game in October to December and moan at lack of sales. Release it in the summer. No competition. Ive always found it strange that winter is the time for releasing games, eventhough every single game is released in winter. Way to much competition.

I suspect that the market research must still support this, and that simply releasing around the holiday season still guarantees more sales even when butting up against other releases. There's simply a lot more sales going on during these last few months than any other time of the year. Say what you will about them skimping on game development, but that's the kind of place these big companies will focus test and study to hell and back.

A few smaller, more niche titles, will find success getting out from under some big releases though.