Michael Pachter Predicts PS4 to "Win" Next-Gen Console War

[Alex Co]

Michael Pachter Predicts PS4 to "Win" Next-Gen Console War

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects the PS4 to outsell the Xbox One by 30% through 2016.

While the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One era has just begun, that hasn't stopped Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter from already picking out a winner. Over the holidays, Pachter released his industry forecast for the next three years and claims the firm expects the PS4 to "win" the next-gen console war over Microsoft's Xbox One.

Pachter estimates the PS4 to post cumulative global sales of 37.7 million units by the end of 2016, which is 30% higher than his expectations for the Xbox One's 29 million units sold within the same time frame. In his projections, Pachter makes a few assumptions regarding retail price cuts for both the PS4 and Xbox One, with the PS4 expected to drop to $299 over the next three years, while Microsoft is expected to make a bigger price reduction of $150 per unit to put the Xbox One at $349.

Having pegged the PS4 as the winner, Pachter does think Microsoft can throw a curveball by cutting the Xbox One's price earlier and claims, "it is possible that Microsoft will reduce Xbox One pricing far faster than we have forecasted. Should hardware prices come down faster than we have modeled, it is likely that hardware and software sales will grow faster."

Just in case you're wondering, the Wii U hasn't been left out, with the report citing that they expect Nintendo to hit 20 million units sold by the end of 2016 at a price point of $150 per console.

Do you agree with Pachter's projections? If so, how do you feel about Sony dominating console gaming once again just like it was during the PS2 days?

Source: GamesIndustry [http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-01-02-ps4-to-win-console-wars-analyst]



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[wooty]

Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

OT: If he's right, hooray for Sony. If he's wrong, hooray for Microsoft. If its a near dead heat.....time to close down the comments sections on youtube.

 

[TiberiusEsuriens]

While I do enjoy listening to Pachter, he's been saying this EXACT IDENTICAL message since both consoles were revealed. Why are people still reporting it like it's news? Yes he said it again, but that's just because people just keep asking him to repeat himself expecting a different answer!

"Let me ask you, do you know... the definition of insanity?"

Guys, let the not-news go until he actually says something different worth reporting.

 

[GonzoGamer]

Well yeah, it's already outselling the Xbone. But I hate what consoles have become and I hope they all just flop.

I know what you mean. I'd hate to see MS & Sony rewarded for turning consoles into gamer milkers. I kind of envy the Nintendo fans as they have the most consumer friendly console. But its still going to take more than Bayonetta2 to get me to buy one.

 

[Grimh]

My assessment of this is that he may or may not be right. He could also be partially right as the percentage might differ slightly or greatly from what was predicted.

I'm taking a hard-line stance on this.

 

[Sniper Team 4]

Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

He's been around for several years actually. He always makes these statements, and for some reason it's always considered news. I don't know why he gets more visibility that other video game analysts, but he does.

Anyway, isn't it a wee bit early to be calling anything? I mean, people were saying the PS3 was going to ruin Sony when it first launched because, let's be honest here, that was a disaster of a launch, from the pricing and PR to the games at launch. But they managed to straighten things out after a while and gave Microsoft a good run for their money. This just seems like chest beating to me right now.

 

[Commander Obvious]

Thank you captain obvious. Sir.

 

[james.sponge]

yay, let's make assumptions about the future of barely released consoles even though none of them has any significant titles worthy of our attention.

 

[Neurotic Void Melody]

This report is almost as pointless as my commenting on it.
I shall return to my homeopathic drinking night

 

[misg]

I honestly think it's way to early for anything to be decided. Really what sells consoles end of the day is games, games and games. Right now I think Microsoft has a bit of a lead with their launch titles and TitalFall might be a killer app for them. What is going to decide it will be how good the games are this year.

But I think the real winner is this Christmas was PC gaming. Over the Christmas sale online players I saw as high as 7.8 Million online which is crazy when this summer hitting 5M online was rare. Once gamers see the options you can get on the PC. I think many are just simply abandoning the console. I remember the launch of the 360 and PS3 everyone I knew was talking about buying it or wanting it. Now I don't know anyone who has bought it and only one friend kind of thinking about it in regards to Destiny. End of the day it's the games and in that category consoles are getting murdered by the PC. With GoG releasing 500+ older games, Steam having a library of thousands of titles. Console games being ported on a weekly basis, the unending stream of high quality games coming from Indie companies. I don't see this improving any time soon for the consoles.

 

[New Frontiersman]

Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

He's a dumbass who's always wrong and nobody likes. His bile turns out to be wrong more often then not, and yet people continuously report on what he says like it matters for some reason

Do you agree with Pachter's projections?

No. No I do not, for the sole reason that it's Patcher who predicted them. I hate seeing his shit get reported, because his opinion is absolutely the most worthless in the industry.

And honestly, isn't it a little early to be predicting "winners" anyway? the Wii U's only a year old and the XBox One and PS4 weren't even released until a recently; this generation has several years left to go.

 

[MrMan999]

Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

 

[hotdogoctopus]

All the veterans of the first console wars cry out in agony that, "It's not worth it!". Tears in their eyes they go back to doing drugs and living in filth to forget the memories.

 

[Ed130 The Vanguard]

Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

Not exactly, he is occasionally right when he states the obvious.

 

[Neurotic Void Melody]

All the veterans of the first console wars cry out in agony that, "It's not worth it!". Tears in their eyes they go back to doing drugs and living in filth to forget the memories.

Hey! I dont live in filth!

It lives in me

 

[SonOfVoorhees]

Agreed, PS4 will outsell XB1 - not really a huge surprise though. But WiiU selling 20million by 2016, i doubt it, its only just sold 5 million. Guess once Zelda etc (the major Nintendo games) then it might reach 20 million. Still doubt it though.

 

[Something Amyss]

Remember when the Xbox One and PS4 were going to cost under a hundred dollars, Michael?

 

[joeman098]

Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

Not exactly, he is occasionally right when he states the obvious.

This just in "Patcher says water will remain wet well into the new year"

 

[Lunar Templar]

why is this asshole saying stuff considered 'news'? the only time he's ever been right is when it was already so obvious that there was little room for doubt.