Michael Pachter Predicts PS4 to "Win" Next-Gen Console War

[Vyress]

Come on, this is is like saying "BANKS ARE UNTRUSTWORTHY" - yeah, we know, even the blind people have seen the signs.

I would argue against this statement. Financial institution that was reliable for over 300 years is more trustworthy than most companies.

An analyst with a 50% quota is worth exactly 1 penny, cause you might as well flip a coin really, statistically speaking.

Yes, RLY.
The mistake most people make, you included, is thinking he is game analyst. he is not. He is financial analyst, dealing in securities and he is so good at his job his pay has 5 numbers. What his quota are in those we do not know, because his opinions in that is SOLD to investors, not given out to news agencies. Considering that he hasnt lost his job in so many years, he must be pretty good at it to make profit for the company.
Now when it comes to games, it is his hobby, his pastime, just like you or me playing games after work. No wonder his predictions are as good as yours or mine.

The only mistake I made was taking anything you said seriously. This is what you said:

Thank you captain hindsight, for pointing out the obviuos after it happened.


He is financial analyst that likes to express opinions about games (not related to his actual, well paid work). Game journalists like to share his opinions with the rest. statistically hes around 50% correct.

...

Hes around 50% right and there are plenty of people that like him enough to pay him loads of money.

For your convenience, I made the relevant section bold.
To make it visually more appealing for you, I will point out the 2 facts you mentioned in that one sentence:
- he's 50% right
- people pay him loads of money

My comment simply stated how a dude being paid for 50/50 chances isn't worth more than a penny, because that coin - as you know - has 2 sides which have an equal chance of pointing upwards on landing after you flipped it making the chance of either side pointing upwards 50% which happens to be the exact quota you mentioned in the bold statement posted above. Your mistake is that you somehow believe that I stated that he was a game analyst. I'd like to ask you for a quote of me on that because I don't see a post of me stating anything of the sort.

Besides, I don't get why you're being so defensive on his part over a simple sarcastic remark which was actually more aimed towards your statement about him rather than his actual prediction. Doesn't make sense unless you're him. Or you have such a big heart that you care that much about what people say about some analyst who makes random statements on a sector he isn't any part of. In that case, props to you lol.

 

[smithy_2045]

For your convenience, I made the relevant section bold.
To make it visually more appealing for you, I will point out the 2 facts you mentioned in that one sentence:
- he's 50% right
- people pay him loads of money

My comment simply stated how a dude being paid for 50/50 chances isn't worth more than a penny, because that coin - as you know - has 2 sides which have an equal chance of pointing upwards on landing after you flipped it making the chance of either side pointing upwards 50% which happens to be the exact quota you mentioned in the bold statement posted above. Your mistake is that you somehow believe that I stated that he was a game analyst. I'd like to ask you for a quote of me on that because I don't see a post of me stating anything of the sort.

So, according to your logic, if you flip a coin you'll know either how many Xbox Ones or PS4s will be sold? After all, your coin has a 50% chance of being right?

 

[Something Amyss]

The mistake most people make, you included, is thinking he is game analyst. he is not. He is financial analyst, dealing in securities and he is so good at his job his pay has 5 numbers.

He's listed as an electronics and video games analyst. Just because the firm has "securities" in the name doesn't mean that's the limit to what they do.

The mistake many people make is equating someone having a job with them being good at it. I'm pretty sure everyone and their brother can point to someone who doesn't deserve to be making what they do.

And Pachter's rate is only 50% if you're very generous. You've been told the last two bits before, though.

So, according to your logic, if you flip a coin you'll know either how many Xbox Ones or PS4s will be sold? After all, your coin has a 50% chance of being right?

Yeah, it's a really unfair comparison. For one thing, it assumes Michael will have the accuracy of a coin.

 

[thewatergamer]

But Jim are lord and saviour already has stated who won the next gen Launch!

 

[smithy_2045]

The mistake most people make, you included, is thinking he is game analyst. he is not. He is financial analyst, dealing in securities and he is so good at his job his pay has 5 numbers.

He's listed as an electronics and video games analyst. Just because the firm has "securities" in the name doesn't mean that's the limit to what they do.

The mistake many people make is equating someone having a job with them being good at it. I'm pretty sure everyone and their brother can point to someone who doesn't deserve to be making what they do.

And Pachter's rate is only 50% if you're very generous. You've been told the last two bits before, though.

So, according to your logic, if you flip a coin you'll know either how many Xbox Ones or PS4s will be sold? After all, your coin has a 50% chance of being right?

Yeah, it's a really unfair comparison. For one thing, it assumes Michael will have the accuracy of a coin.

I think you missed the point of my post. A coin can randomly select 1 of two possible outcomes. It cannot be used to predict how many consoles will be sold.
Furthermore, being right 50% of the time is absolutely meaningless without the context of what he's actually predicting. Predicting the exact number of consoles sold 50% of the time would be a fantastic prediction rate. Predicting which of 2 consoles will come out on top with a 50% prediction rate would be completely pointless.

 

[Something Amyss]

I think you missed the point of my post.

No, I chose to flip it on its head in an obvious play. This is usually done for humourous intent.

However, I think you miss the basic point of a coin flip analogy, which is to say that someone is still only as good as basic averages or guesswork. If you couple that with the notion that he's only even that accurate if you are quite generous, and he's not even at dumb chance. A good chunk of his predictions are ones that can be made with a random device, such as which of two consoles will lead, so even the most literal interpretation of the coin flip argument only has you correct some of the time.

 

[smithy_2045]

I think you missed the point of my post.

No, I chose to flip it on its head in an obvious play. This is usually done for humourous intent.

However, I think you miss the basic point of a coin flip analogy, which is to say that someone is still only as good as basic averages or guesswork. If you couple that with the notion that he's only even that accurate if you are quite generous, and he's not even at dumb chance. A good chunk of his predictions are ones that can be made with a random device, such as which of two consoles will lead, so even the most literal interpretation of the coin flip argument only has you correct some of the time.

If he's merely predicting which of the two consoles is going to sell more, then it's a poor predictive rate. But attacking the number 50% and saying that a coin could do that with no context as to what the 50% is actually measuring is wrong.

 

[TallanKhan]

Well yeah, it's already outselling the Xbone. But I hate what consoles have become and I hope they all just flop.

I know what you mean. I'd hate to see MS & Sony rewarded for turning consoles into gamer milkers. I kind of envy the Nintendo fans as they have the most consumer friendly console. But its still going to take more than Bayonetta2 to get me to buy one.

I'm with you there. I am desperate for Nintendo to release a console i actually want to buy. I still believe Nintendo does so much right, but they seem determined to take gaming in a direction no one is wanting to travel. Nintendo is like a travel operator with the best customer service, best hotels and cheapest flights, but it only offers holidays in Iraq.

It is strange to think i still consider myself a nintendo fan despite the fact i have'nt brought anything from then in almost 7 years.

The Wii was interesting, i found very quickly that i hated it, i don't like motion controls, they don't add anything to the experience for me, but i can see why nintendo went that way and at least they were trying something new. But these days I feel like Nintendo is stuck in some sort of "acting out" phase, being different for the sake of it rather than to push a new concept.

I feel like Nintendo has deliberatley excluded gamers who just want to play games without buying into some sort of gimmick. I for one don't want motion sensors, touch pads, second screens, voice controls or any other gimmick, i just want to pick up a proper, well laid out controller and play some games, and if that means im not "progressive" then so be it. I don't accept that because someone comes up with a new way of doing something that the new way is automatically better and the future of gaming should be shaped by how gamers want to play games, not how they are told to.

Lastly i don't understand Nintendo's almost adversarial relationship with other developers. I do understand why they don't develop their own IP for 3rd parties and respect the decision, even if it is not the one i might have made in their place. What i don't understand is why they don't make their consoles more accessable for 3rd parties to develop for.