Kinect and Move Critical to Industry Growth, Says Analyst

[Logan Westbrook]

Kinect and Move Critical to Industry Growth, Says Analyst

Move and Kinect will be the make-or-break products for the videogame industry this Christmas, says market analyst Jesse Divnich.

After months of falling sales, Divnich, an analyst for EEDAR, believes that the videogame industry could be in for a more positive end to the year, but says that much of this will depend on the success of Microsoft and Sony's motion controllers.

Divnich says that Kinect [http://www.amazon.com/Kinect-Sensor-Adventures-Xbox-360/dp/B002BSA298/ref=sr_1_2?s=videogames&ie=UTF8&qid=1281700469&sr=1-2] and Move [http://www.amazon.com/PlayStation-Move-Starter-Bundle-3/dp/B002I0J4NE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=videogames&qid=1281699841&sr=8-1] are "critical" products that can promote excitement amongst the casual and hardcore consumers alike, and their success over the holiday period will be the "primary catalyst" for the growth, or decline, of the industry.

Divnich did also note that core gamers would also play a part though, and with the release of games like Halo: Reach, Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood and Call of Duty: Black Ops later this year, he expected "robust gains" for several key genres.

It's not hard to imagine almost explosive growth in the videogame industry if Kinect and Move are successful, so it's hard to argue with Divnich's statement that they are critical products. This could be one of the most significant things to happen to the industry in years, and it's going to be interesting to see how it all goes down.

Move launches on September 17th, and Kinect hits stores on November 4th.

Source: Industry Gamers [http://www.industrygamers.com/news/game-industry-growth-depends-on-success-of-kinect-move-says-eedar/]



Permalink

 

[Cabisco]

I'm sticking to the fact I think these will both flop, well at least to begin with. Until I see a decent selection of games for the Kinect i'm not even going to consider spending so much money on a device, no matter how cool I thought It could have been.

What I hope happens is after the failure, both companies go ape shit crazy trying to make titles we'll love to stop us from jumping ship (even though admitedly we wouldn't jump ship, and I think they know that).

 

[ASnogarD]

It must be bleak indeed if the industries best hopes is in a ice cream coloured ball topped motion controller and a none controller.

It wasn't that long ago that the actual titles used to drive the business.

 

[Hybridwolf]

I'm sticking to the fact I think these will both flop, well at least to begin with. Until I see a decent selection of games for the Kinect i'm not even going to consider spending so much money on a device, no matter how cool I thought It could have been.

What I hope happens is after the failure, both companies go ape shit crazy trying to make titles we'll love to stop us from jumping ship (even though admitedly we wouldn't jump ship, and I think they know that).

I'm trying to make an arguement, but you've summed it up perfectly...not to mention your avatar keeps distracting me...

 

[Adzma]

I hope they both fail miserably so that Sony and Microsoft realise what idiots they've been and get back to making real games.

 

[PurePareidolia]

"promote excitement amongst the casual and hardcore consumers alike"

I would fire this guy for actually entertaining the thought that hardcore gamers are even remotely interested in it by now.

 

[viranimus]

If industry analysts think that these are critical to industry growth it shows a couple things.

1: Industry analysts do not understand the industry. The fad has passed. If it was critical we would still see the Wii having steady growth instead of loosing ground. If they think its critical it shows they do not understand the industry that they are analyzing.

2: Industry analysts have no reason to be employed. I can go around and spouting infactual random nonsense speculating on the future. Where is my check?

 

[dududf]

Who the heck pays these guys? Surely they must not be sitting around twiddling their thumbs and writing crap down on paper.


Casual gamers will flock to the newest toy on the block, and thus generate profit, bringing a temporary growth in the gaming market due to an inject of funds. Then after 3 months, they get bored and put it down, like the MAJORITY of Wii owners (I'm well aware that there are some of you enjoying the Wii to it's fullest, but sadly you are a minority). Go look at the Wii now, 3rd party sales are hitting the toilet.

Also, lack of specifics to how much growth makes it rather vague. Would 1 new customer be justified as a growth or 100 million new customers?

Even if both of the devices bomb out with hardcore, the casual will flock if you put enough bright colored T-shirt clad people of varying age groups playing it in a white clean room.

They shouldn't be questioning growth, but more of how much, and for how long.

How long did 3rd party sales last on the Wii? Compare that with the current new gizmos, and try to come up with a reasonable attach rate to the console that it is for, that then may become "hardcore" and that's the only real growth I can expect. An increase in hardcore, and a lot of casuals. All the casuals will bring is a temporary increase. Kinda like giving a small snack to a hungry person.

...

Now I want breakfast.

 

[Mana Fiend]

If industry analysts think that these are critical to industry growth it shows a couple things.

1: Industry analysts do not understand the industry. The fad has passed. If it was critical we would still see the Wii having steady growth instead of loosing ground. If they think its critical it shows they do not understand the industry that they are analyzing.

2: Industry analysts have no reason to be employed. I can go around and spouting infactual random nonsense speculating on the future. Where is my check?

QFT! x10.

I could do a better job than this industry analyst in an afternoon with access to the internet and common sense.

Casual gamers are unlikely to spend this much money on these, especially as you have to invest in a console as well. There may be a fluctuation at Christmas, but I see people buying a Wii over either of these. Or even a PS2 and Eyetoy.

Hardcore Gamers don't care for movement controls, as we can see by checking pretty much any internet forum.

 

[MasterV]

Riiiiiiight. Analysts say things all the time. Isn't it them who always say, year after year, that Nintendo is going to be destroyed? Yeah, very accurate their analysis is, as Yoda would say. This is no different. But, as always, time will tell.

 

[sephiroth1991]

All i can say is wait and see, i can see why Move is more appealing since it's nothin' new but Kinect may have a harder time selling.

But i always take things like this with a lot of sault for example they said Nintendo will fall but so far i have not seen so much as a crumble.

 

[Outright Villainy]

Gamers have shunned the idea already, due the move being a blatant wii rip off with the same casual focused games, and the Kinect being incredibly gimmicky and having more entirely casual focused games.

For people who'd play a wii for the casual games, they'll just buy a wii or keep the wii they already have. They don't want two consoles, and most gamers don't even go that far. The price point is a huge factor here. Nintendo is by far the cheapest and has a huge selection of games already. Not to mention they have a better image in terms of being family friendly.

In short I can't see any type of gamer getting too excited over either product.

 

[uppitycracker]

If industry analysts think that these are critical to industry growth it shows a couple things.

1: Industry analysts do not understand the industry. The fad has passed. If it was critical we would still see the Wii having steady growth instead of loosing ground. If they think its critical it shows they do not understand the industry that they are analyzing.

2: Industry analysts have no reason to be employed. I can go around and spouting infactual random nonsense speculating on the future. Where is my check?

Yeah, it seems to be a big problem these days with industry analysts, because they don't seem to understand the industry at all, much less it's consumers, and that is unfortunately a pretty crucial part to being halfway decent at the job. The fact that these people get paid so much more than me, for something they are so terrible at, continues to disgust me.

 

[JoshGod]

if kinect and move are successful there will be an explosive growth. well done sir yes its all obvious that when something new in a market is successful it creates a growth. thats brilliant anylsis. also hardcorames will love it aswell. i can hear them screaming for it, despite the fact microsoft failed at e3 because of it, which is were hardcore take interest.

(if you couldn't tell, and shame on you if so, sarcasm)

 

[Carnagath]

I think most casual gamers and people who are interested in exercising with their console already own a Wii, and they are not the type of audience that buys all consoles of a single generation, let alone expands them with separate controllers just to mimick the Wii. As for hardcore gamers who own two or all three consoles and only buy the occasional "Next Mario/Zelda/Surprisingly good" game for the Wii but mainly game on the PS3 and 360, I really don't think most of them give a shit about motion controls. Kinect might have drawn some audience due to its cool "Dance Central" thingy if it went for half the price announced, but as things are right now I don't see either Move or Kinect's success being more than very luke-warm. If their success is so critical that it can make or break the industry, I'd say let it burn. Maybe then, 5 years from now, we'll go back to focusing on the gameplay and writing.

 

[Zhukov]

Hyperbole if ever I've heard it.

 

[teh_gunslinger]

You are missing a space between failing and sales in the first line Mr. Westbrook.

As for the topic, well I wont be buying either so I guess I'm helping to ruin all.

 

[Cid Silverwing]

You just know the analysts don't even know what the fuck they're talking about when they are praising a piece of shit that shouldn't even have been invented. Did no one learn their lesson from the Nintendo Power Glove?

 

[Jonluw]

Am I weird for mentally inserting 'Ryan Quickbender' at the end of the title?

OT: If they succeed I think could definitely offer a great deal of growth in the industry; but I don't think it will be a huge problem if they flop.

 

[silver wolf009]

Most of the pontiental for motion control has been used up by nintendo because they've had a huge time advantage over Sony and Microsoft. If they think that Kinect and Move will even come close to Wii sales, they have another thing coming to them.