gigastar said:
I always take those kinds of numbers with a grain of salt, since publishers like to mix up the terms 'active' and 'registered'.
Sure. Even so, that's a much bigger market. You have Dead space trying for, what was it, 3, 5 million sales? At some point, 500 million devices have had CCS installed.
Xeorm said:
That still doesn't make any sort of sense. You're looking at almost 10 years of profit at that level in order to make back your investment.
That's not how that works.
The ROI calculation is a lot more complicated than just, income vs. cost. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to sell either. Because in ten years, they'll make more than they would gain by selling.
There are a lot of armchair investors in here, and they are mistaken if they think that this number is excessive.
Now, Candy Crush is a popular game, but all that we've seen says that the number will deteriorate quick. That's the nature of mobile gaming.
Suprise! That's why I said in my post that I wonder what they're planning to do with it. Do try to keep up, going over what I already said is rather tedious.
I suspect we're going to see a bunch of variants of CCS, like Angry Birds, like Bejewelled. And like Bejewelled, we can expect that this thing is going to be around for a while. 500 million users isn't going to stick that way, and the amount who are actually using the monetization is going to be much less, of course it's going to decay.
No, you buy developers like this because you're not only looking for the profit, but because you can do something with those resources together that you couldn't do something singularly.
If we were having a conversation in person, you would see my eyes rolling. This is IN WHAT YOU QUOTED.
What King has is a profitable brand, and profitable IP. That's what Activision interested in. That's what publishers are always interested in.
Activision has money, business expertise (supposedly)
This undermines every word you say.
and a few other positives.
Distribution, marketting expertise, larger QA departments, come on.
You're also likely mistaking how this works for King. This is not a deal for cooperation. This is a takeover, a larger organism consuming a smaller one.
This is most likely a "sell-out" move for King, making bank on their brand. Really, this is likely the ideal endgame for King, making their stocks worth a lot, providing a large income, and selling the company for a hefty profit. That is a much less risky game than game development.
They think they can use that to make something better.
No, they don't.
They think that using what King has (Which is IP. That's what Activision cares about. Anyone could make a Candy Crush knockoff. They're after branding).
They think that King will make them money, and that they can exploit King to make more money. They don't have to make it better. They have to make it more.
At least, assuming that this is an educated decision that will turn out well.
Trust me, this decision is almost certainly more educated than my post or yours, or most of the opinions in this thread.
I know us core gamers tend to think of ourselves as being the most knowledgeable about games, but as I said, we are a very small fish, with a very overinflated sense of our own importance.
More than likely though, this is a guy in a suit making a decision that the mobile game market is something they want to get into, and so they're going to buy a big boy in the market, and use that to setup their own division.
Perhaps. I doubt it though. No matter what, Activision is going to take over King's revenue stream, and they're probably going to do what Activision does best-pump out variations and knockoffs until the market is dead. Like you said, this is a short lived market. It won't be around forever. Activision knows this better than anyone. Look at Guitar Hero, look at Call of Duty.
This decision really only makes sense if you ignore the cost/benefit side, and look at it as someone making a stupid decision ignoring the costs.
No, what this is, is people thinking that they're doing a cost benefit analysis because they know multiplication, and again assuming plain stupidity at the hands of the suits. Activision, and other companies, don't place all their eggs in one basket. Everything is a risk, and diversification spreads risk. Looking at it as one payment, with the income for ROI is not how it works.
For how stupid Activision, EA et al are said to be, they haven't managed to go under for quite a long time, even though we've been calling them all the evil under the sun for more than a decade. They know well enough how to make money, what risks they can take. Yes, some of the decisions they make are less good, or wrongheaded. I don't see how anyone has presented a case that this is one of them, apart from demonstrating that folks here would run an even worse Activision than Activision does.