Liiizard said:
I think people are really afraid of China's economic hold over us, all the money we owe them, and the way they have this super efficient industrial complex while we basically sold our entire manufacturing base to them. People like to blame an outsider for their problems, so a lot of people are blaming China for the recession. Which is really dumb. I mean, a bunch of American politicians and businessmen were like: "Hey, wanna have our industrial base and keep your people employed so we can get fabulously rich?" You'd have to be a very irresponsible world leader to say no to such an offer. Or to make such an offer, for that matter.
But anyway, there will never be a military confrontation between the US and China. They might buy out our political system and own everything worth owning in this country, but that's all the more reason why they have no desire to bomb us. Sure, there's plenty of nationalistic sentiment among the masses, but the politburo keeps that stuff on a tight leash, feeding it occasionally when they want to scare this neighbor or that.
The leaders of China are all technocrats, engineers, or economists, and they're all very pragmatic and level headed. Which is probably why they're taking over the world while we're sinking into oblivion. That's what happens when emotion and noise determine the direction of the country and the advice of anyone with an education is drowned out by shouts of "elitist!" Personally, I'm fine with them taking over. They'd probably do a better job running things than the incompetent and corrupt politicians and business leaders who sold us out in the first place and put us in this position.
In any case, if a military engagement did happen, it would consist of guys in suits on both sides pushing buttons to launch nukes, then running into their bunkers while the rest of us fried. No invasion, no landing, just a bunch of death and fallout.
Actually, your wrong on a lot of levels. The Chinese are actually a group of racists who believe that the proper state of being is for them to rule the world, both on a practical and spiritual level. If you've ever heard China referred to as "The Middle Kingdom" what that is all about (as it was explained to me) is the belief that China is a nation that exists between Heaven and Earth, with the Chinese being more than human but less than gods. A sort of master race doctrine even if many do not follow it seriously in a religious sense. I've gone into this earlier in this thread to some extent.
This is incidently intristic to why China maintains things like it's national firewall and the "bamboo curtain" in general. Simply put they do not want reasonable ideas of co-existance to interfere with the general dogma of racial/cultural destiny. People in the US have this tendency to assume that people all over the world are basically alike. China is a horribly ignorant country that simply doesn't have widespread access to the information sources and points of view we take for granted. Consider also this is a nation that has some highly advanced cities, but is also suffering from massive overpopulation and a mess where a good portion of their own people still basically live with a middle ages-like tech level. The disease "SARS" for example started in China as a result of people living with their livestock (ie you keep your goats in the same place you sleep and eat your meals). Things like this are part of the motivation for eventual payback for the "Triviliazation of their culture" and "preventing the ascension of the master race". I've seen a few speeches from China brought into the US and translated over the years, some of these guys make the "kill Americans" speeches in The Middle East seem absolutly sane and rational... and we're generally not dealing with a lunatic fringe. Albiet their leadership is smart enough to make sure all their ducks are in a row before trying anything, rather than engaging in wars of terror and such.
China's position in "buying out America" is no differant than the whole "Japanacorp" scare in the 1980s where people feared The Japanese were going to wind up owning everything. In the end it doesn't much matter who runs everything on paper when push comes to shove. Paper is ultimatly meaningless. Merchants and businessmen have felt that the realities of business and trade would prevent pretty much every conflict to ever occur, it never does. At the best it just means when the chips are down you see more blood as property is "retaken" from what is seen to be a foreign power.
Interestingly also, China's economic success is also based on immortal behavior, and what many call a "robber economy" where they knock off products owned by other nations and individuals (patent violations, etc...) and sell them to peoples who couldn't otherwise afford them. On top of this they run national policies where there are limits to how much money non-Chinese businesses can make in China and how much money can leave their economy. Making fair trade rather difficult. This kind of thing has even been covered here on The Escapist when you look at the reasons behind the drama with Blizzard and keeping WoW running (including the need to use a Chinese company as a proxy, they can't just operate everything themselves). Right now we're 2" away from World War III, the whole issue of China's trade policy is before the so called "World Court" which has been hemming and hawing over a ruling. Basically IF it's ruled that China is right, it means war because it will kill ALL intellectual/patent/research rights forcing nations with a lot of investment in these things to basically turn on the global community and fight for their own survival (ie their prosperity is about to get deep sixxed). If it's ruled that China is wrong it means China goes to war because it would basically result in the dismantling of the infrastructure that they have been building up, and they would rather die/go down fighting than just sink back down into the bowels of poverty quietly.
Finally, assuming that MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is still a factor and will remain such is extremely naive. Simply put the "WMD ICBM" technology has been the "doomsday weapon" for over 50 years now. Technology has not remained static. Shortly after it was developed people worked on countermeasures, and even with the ban on things like "Star Wars" research of various systems continued. The US has demonstrated a ridiculous amount of abillity to target and destroy missles with boats, subs, and planes. Enough where some of the things we have showed off just in The Middle East had Russia freaking out about violation of treaties made with the USSR since we had allegedly agreed (like them) not to develop such things to maintain peace.
What's more several years ago there was an article about how China had developed a laser system that could be used to blind US Spy Satellites, limiting the abillity of the US to look into China and see what was going on. A very bad thing on a lot of levels given what else is going on over there. This also incidently means that they could presumably do the same thing with our military sats used for aiming and missle guidance.
If ICBMs are not obselete they are rapidly getting there. As of a few years ago it was said that if the US was to fight the entire globe simultaneously (no allies) we would have roughly a 5% chance of victory. Victory being defined as enough of our nation surviving the war, the aftermath, and in some shape that could still be called a civilization. Not good, until you consider that the chance for the combined forces of the rest of humanity are 0%, as in totally impossible. The US having enough WMD to destroy the planet like 50x over, and pretty much the only nation that has technologies with demonstrated capabilities to stop the incoming warheads of other nations even in vast numbers (though it involves us having our boats, planes, etc... scrambled and pretty much focused on interception, as well as the fact that while we'd have to fight Canada/Mexico/South America/Central America, conventionally we could doubtlessly do it, and most of the nations attacking us would be mostly forced to do so at a range with the oceans forming a substantial barrier especially seeing as they would be contending with what is still the strongest navy on earth). Of course this analysis changes based on things like other nations developing similar technologies, and of course those technologies progressing faster than what can practically be done with an ICBM.
China is building up a massive Navy, and submarine fleet. Their "Yuan" class was allegedly capable of "tagging" the Kitty Hawke (US Carrier), and is roughly on par with our "Sea Wolf" (of which we only have like 4). It's not a threat *YET* but getting there. Right now people are going "well that's pathetic, military forces like that are no threat due to WMD carrying ICBMS!" well sadly that *IS* going to change and everyone bloody knows it, including the Chinese. That's why they are building it, with some things I've read they are even pretty straightforward about it (at least in China). China has no real threats around them that require the sudden arming that they are undergoing... it's an offensive force intended for them to project their massive armies.
The point of another (long) rant is that it's not paranoia, jealousy, or anything else. A lot of people who are left wing or "peace at any price" just do not get it. There are however a LOT of reasons why the whole China Vs. The US scenario comes into play.
Even in the best case scenario if somehow there was some massive conspiricy to frame China and they are all peaceful, and simply making these huge armies as a national arts and crafts projects, consider that the golden rule of free trade is "He who has the biggest guns, trades freely". What this means in this case is that our debts to China are a lot less relevent if we remain militarily more powerful. On the other hand if that changes well we have a problem. Thus if nothing else we have a reason to attack them, even if not a moral one, for our own sake. Even if it makes us less of a group of good guys it STILL results in a war.
