It seems to me, regardless of whether the price increase is justified or not, the incredible backlash against it is evidence that this was one hell of a marketing clusterfuck (man, I love that word). The fact of the matter is that there is no universal answer to whether it is justified; it is directly tied to how much you personally care about all the new features they've been adding since launch. I think this thread alone demonstrates that a significant number of people, who are only interested in playing online, don't care at all and for them Microsoft is suddenly asking them to pay more for exactly the same service. And other people who do enjoy the additional features telling them that the service is getting better is not going to convince anyone. Certainly, Microsoft telling them that is getting better isn't going to mean a damn. What is true for some people is not true for others.
I think it was mentioned in the news thread about the actual price increase announcement, but it seems like a two-tiered system would be really beneficial. A lower price that just provides access to games online and then a higher price that has all the extra features. I doubt that Microsoft will implement that though because they want people to pay for everything and they know that for a lot of people online multiplayer is worth enough to pay for everything.
It still seems like they could have handled the announcement a hell of a lot better though. The best way to impress the idea that Live is worth the extra money would be to announce a new feature alongside the price increase, ideally a new feature that people who just care about multiplayer would also want, such as...
...
...
I have no idea, actually. The ability to punch annoying players through Live, maybe...
Slightly more on topic: I have to agree that this probably won't hurt Microsoft-the loss of revenue from unrenewed subscriptions will be outweighed by the extra money per subscription-and that it definetly won't cause some massive change to the balance of the three consoles. However, I would add the caveat that the statement only holds if you consider publicity to be worth nothing, because, oh boy, has this been worth a ton of bad publicity. Combine this with the direction that Kinect appears to be going in and Microsoft might want to be careful of giving the impression that they're producing a whole load of crap that their core market won't necessarily care about.
Much less on topic: when I saw the title of the thread, I assumed it would be referring to Michael Patcher. I guess the industry grew another analyst.