Analyst Says Subscription MMOs Are Dead

[Quiotu]

The problem isn't that TOR isn't making money. The problem is that it's not making enough money, because EA/BW are greedy, egotistical, short sighted idiots who went into this with insanely unrealistic expectations.

What irritates me the most is that TOR has been so expensive and high profile that if it is percieved as a 'failure' it could scare investors away from worthwhile future MMO projects - all because that pack of morons had no idea of what they were pissing away their two hundred million bucks on. Thanks, EA. Thanks, Bioware. Now please, never go near the MMO market again.

Part of me agrees with you, and part of me sees the other side. Bioware and EA overhyped the MMO to be sure; I'm not sure if they've ever quoted as calling TOR a WoW-killer, but it was insinuated. But they kinda had to, if the dev costs are as large as people think it is. There's no hard data I think, but I'm pretty sure TOR is the second most expensive MMO out there next to WoW, cumulatively.

Personally I think all this does is set a standard... make an MMO as expensive as you want, but no amount of money will topple WoW. Doing so is futile, so simply make it as good as you like, garner your own fanbase instead of trying to steal it from WoW, and see if you do it well enough.

Judging from Bioware's recent tactics, I think TOR's still doing well and will profit... it's just not gonna be the golden goose EA wanted it to be. If people like me are still playing TOR, I'd consider them loyal customers, and Bioware seems more inclined to cater to them first before trying to expand the base further.

Continuing to expand the game while offering free prologues and potentially lowering the price of the software itself will get more people to at least try it. Long as they don't start pissing off who's still around, I see it working long term.

 

[kajinking]

I think that the problem here is that the IP just doesn't matter all that much in the long run when it comes to MMOs when you don't have lasting value. I mean if you decided to make a My Little Pony MMO and gave it boring game mechanics and little to no lasting value fun-wise you couldn't honestly expect it to go toe to toe with WOW for long. Sure the bronies would be all over it in a heartbeat and it'd have great inital players but eventually without any actual fun to be had people would move on and the game would die.

 

[Ympulse]

I like that he said that there are only 6-7 million people willing to pay a subscription for an MMO, considering that 10 million are paying for WoW I think his numbers might be off.

That number is a bit stale, friend. Recent numbers have unique and non-chinafarm subs at closer to 5 mil.

 

[Sixcess]

Personally I think all this does is set a standard... make an MMO as expensive as you want, but no amount of money will topple WoW. Doing so is futile, so simply make it as good as you like, garner your own fanbase instead of trying to steal it from WoW, and see if you do it well enough.

I agree entirely. EVE Online continues to thrive on a sub - partly due to the PLEX system but partly due to holding onto a loyal fanbase by offering something different. Similarly, City of Heroes held its own against Champions and DC Universe - both of which, though much newer games, went to F2P models before City, because City had 6 or 7 years of loyal fans and had never tried to compete with WoW in genre or gameplay/endgame/raiding experience.

I don't hate TOR. I've played it and I'll probably play it again eventually - it's an okay game. I just hate how EA/BW have so spectacularly squandered their opportunity, and hope they're now working to a realistic long term plan that doesn't rely on them retaining sub numbers that any sane observer of the MMO genre would have told them they were never ever going to get.

And going back to the article, I see Pachter thought TOR would "make it big." The industry will be a healthier place if the money men stop listening to idiots like him.

 

[Bostur]

I agree with everyone here. It's amazing how clever people are, or more likely how simple it is when observed with a hands-on perspective as opposed to an analyst's perspective.

I just wanted to add that I think another fallacy is assuming that a mainstream MMO is viable in the first place. MMOs are generally very niche, 'core' experiences and I often wonder what makes business people think that average Joes and Janes would want to play MMOs. WoW was a notorious exception that succeeded in being very broad. But I don't think that was a deliberate attempt, that just happened. As soon as Blizzard started broadening WoW deliberately they started bleeding subscribers.

But his assumption is based on a typical EA perspective that 'viable' means millions of subscribers. With that in mind the conclusion does make some sense, because he is assuming something that can copy WoW's success. And that probably wont happen.

"I thought Star Wars: The Old Republic would make it big, but it didn't," Pachter said. "It looks like subscription MMOs are as big as they're going to get - there are only 6-7 million people willing to spend $15 a month. If Star Wars couldn't do it, made by Bioware, then no one can do it."

That is most likely correct, except for the part about BioWare ;-) But I think some developers would think of a 500K subscription base as a huge success.

 

[nodlimax]

This newspost tells me again, that the managers of big publishers have no idea how to create great games.

As some said already, it's not the sub - it's the game itself that's lacking. Show me one Subcription based MMO that did it right in the last 5 years. We got WoW which started great and grew steadily until the release of WotLK. At that point they threw everything that held the community together overboard and went for that casual stuff (they started already in BC with this). Of course that attracted many new customers, but it destroyed the community over time.

And the result can be seen now. WoW is shrinking. To hold the numbers steady Blizzard had to throw a lot of stuff out during the first quarter of 2012. Let's see how it went in the second quarter (without that much free stuff for wow while they concentrated on D3). We'll see the numbers in a few weeks.

There is one more MMO that grew steadily over the last few years and that's EVE online, but the targeted audience is very limited. It's not my kind of game. I tried it and think it's boring.

To actually get more people into Subbased MMOs new and fresh ideas are required. They need to do new stuff and in addition they need to concentrate on the communities. They need to force people to communicate and to play together. In the beginning of WoW I got in contact with people by actually talking to them. I got into guilds by playing together with people in dungeons several times. They saw what I could do and I could see their skill as well and after talking ingame and in TS we got together into guilds.

Have you actually seen what you have to do these days to get into a guild? I have to do stuff I usually do only to get a job. I can't even get in contact with most of the guild leaders before writing at least 1-2 pages about how good i am and what I can do for the guild. This elite stuff is also responsible for the downfall of the MMOs. You don't go into guilds because you like the people. You get in there to accomplish stuff and if there are noobs, then you quit and go somewhere else....oh and don't forget to take as much stuff as possible from guild banks. If people accuse you of stealing you can simply transfer to another server and change your name.....

This paid services need to vanish as well....

 

[Lunar Templar]

some F2P have done ok with it, Champions Online being probably the only one that I can see using a cash shop in an appropriate manner.

>.> .... haven't looked around much then i take?

though, last i looked the game wasn't under PWE's banner yet, so maybe its improved.


OT:
well duh it didn't work, you aren't gonna get many people to migrate from MMO to MMO, just not gonna happen

 

[Dr. Mongo]

Sure, those crazy Canadian doctors hadn't made an MMO yet, but they had the story-telling chops, and millions of EA bucks to make it as successful as WoW without making it a clone.

Is this upposed to be a joke? If TOR is anything, it is a clone of WoW. And a bad one, too.

 

[ElPatron]

Analyst said something was going to die, more news at 11.

I like how humble EA has been recently.

 

[Valis88]

it's hard being a fan of TOR.

it's really, really, really hard now a days.

Everyone hates the game, and wants it to fail.

I feel like it's being taken from me...

 

[Charli]

No one has made a leap in the basis of what is now; 'The essence of WoW.'
The standard quest, group, raid, arena, universe.

And until it is possible, nothing will make much of a dent until somewhere, somehow, a giant leap in how to craft an MMO is made. But so far most of the experiments have failed, but don't give up on it. Keeping it too much like WoW is both dangerous and too safe. Shareholders think an MMO TOO radically different is too risky, but then at the same time they want it to push the boundaries and be it's own thing in order to be that next step, but it never goes far enough.

The devs of these things are a little trapped between expectation and creative forward thinking.


Aaand not much is going to change without some risk taking. So I see this as the 'process'.

One day the MMO giant will fall. And a new king will arise with fresh and interesting ideas that bring all the subscriptions to the yard.

 

[MetallicaRulez0]

I like that he said that there are only 6-7 million people willing to pay a subscription for an MMO, considering that 10 million are paying for WoW I think his numbers might be off.

Only 3-5 million of that 10 million number are subscriptions. A large portion of their "subscriber" number that they throw around is actually people in Asia paying per minute in internet cafes and such. That inflates their subscriber number by a TON.

it's hard being a fan of TOR.

it's really, really, really hard now a days.

Everyone hates the game, and wants it to fail.

I feel like it's being taken from me...

I'd love for TOR to succeed, but the game simply isn't good enough nor different enough to really compete against WoW. It has less content, more same-y classes and homogenization, and lacks the feel of a real "game world". There's far too many instanced areas and loading screens. The story aspect of the game was awesome on your first character, but after my 4th time I was ready to choke a ***** every time I had to enter into a conversation. Especially in flashpoints. Who's brilliant idea was it to allow a single individual to slow down 3 others who want to skip conversations? Ugh. PRESS SPACE BAR PLEASE.

 

[ThreeToedSloth]

Well its official....BW is moving forward with forced transfers/mergers.

 

[ThreeToedSloth]

Cough....* <---Hair ball!

 

[direkiller]

I like that he said that there are only 6-7 million people willing to pay a subscription for an MMO, considering that 10 million are paying for WoW I think his numbers might be off.

stupidly off

Runescape 10million
WoW 10.2
6mill for KOTOR
EvE 400,000
I don't know the overlap but yea he is kinda wrong.

 

[Tmc_Sherpa]

*cough* EVE *cough*
CCP seems to be doing alright and they have, what, a couple hundred thousand subscribers? I started playing way back in the day (before they revamped the new player experience a couple times. It was brutal) because the trial was free and the client was free. If I hated it I was out zero dollars. I know the first month is covered by the purchase but that's not the same as free.


EA or whoever, you're screwed, don't even try. Stick to your franchises and make your shareholders happy. After all they are the only important people in the industry right? Not the folks who buy your games? I mean screw those guys, they only make more work and whine about your products.


Small time developers here is the trick. Start with something small and cheap, get a good community going. Let the players figure out what's broken and fix it ie listen to them. Blizzard did all the dumb things new MMO get the stick over, they've just had the time (and money) to fix it so let it grow naturally. Don't start out with 50 servers or a kabillion dollar IP and FFS DO NOT MAKE A WOW CLONE. Who knows, you could be the next Notch. Oh and stay private and independent. I don't care how many zeros EA/Activision put on the end of a check, the second your bosses bosses boss is more important than the people playing your game you've already lost.

Sherpa

TL/DR
A small market share that makes money is better than huge initial market share that eventually tanks

 

[Bertinan]

People were calling flop on this from the get go. It's just a bad game. And, even worse than being bad, it's BORING.

That, and Bioware had to deal with Lucas Arts. It's a recipe for disaster.

 

[snfonseka]

It astounds me that this guy's ramblings are still considered news. His understanding of the video game industry is consistently inadequate, and pretty much all he has is a fancy "analyst" title and a bigger paycheck. The fact is, the typical Escapist reader has a higher ratio of good predictions to bad than he does.

P.S. Thanks

You have mentioned exactly the things in my mind. This guy is totally worthless when it comes to "gaming".

 

[BrotherRool]

They aren't doing bad on the games front. Last year was one of the best years for games ever. Still trying to catch up