Are things really that bad?

[Vault101]

so is the industry really artistically bankrupt? are we in for another crash?

Mabye its naive of me to hope otherwise, or even think otherwise, what do I know?

way back in late 2007 David wong (well known writer for cracked.com) predicted there would be another crash, hasnt happened yet thank god, This guy is a good writer but I dont agree with his veiwpoint on videogames

http://www.cracked.com/article_15732_life-after-video-game-crash.html

anyway Thats really beside the point, ok yeah shooters dominate the market, how ever I tend to avoid the "realistic" samey ones, and everyone hates COD and Halo, to be honest I cant think of many semi-recent games featuring space marines, Gears of war and Mass effect are the only ones I can come up with

 

[Justanothergamer300]

Don't think of Xbox 360/PS3 only shooters

What about Team Fortress 2 and Metro 2033

 

[DeadlyYellow]

A man in power armor in space shooting things is essentially no different from a space marine despite calling him a miner.

 

[Dark Knifer]

I don't think there will be another crash considering how much money the industry seems to be making. New ideas seem to be less encouraged, or not invested, in today's industry. The trend for things it seems to be change existing titles and put a different spin on it. Like bulletstrom and brink are doing in FPSs. I don't think the market would crash, just get less interesting.

 

[Shreder55]

What about Starcraft 2 does that count?

Well I agree that a crash is possible I have to disagree I don't think its bankrupt its just that not many developers want to step out of the shell and risk losing money on a good game that doesent sell beacuse people don't understand it or don't like.
Thats why the market is flooded with shooter because they are a safe way to make money.

And gaming is such a bigger market now compared to the 80's that it can't really go financially bankrupt anytime soon.

 

[Judgement101]

This year will be different. SOOOOO MANY GOOD THINGS. Elder Scrolls V, Homefront, Bulletstorm, Portal 2, Crysis 2. SO MUCH WIN!

 

[Vault101]

This year will be different. SOOOOO MANY GOOD THINGS. Elder Scrolls V, Homefront, Bulletstorm, Portal 2, Crysis 2. SO MUCH WIN!

assuming youre not being sarcastic I find youre optimismm very refreshing, thats problem people are so negative It gets annoying

and we still have great developers like Valve and Bioware (dragon age 2!!!!!!!)

 

[Judgement101]

This year will be different. SOOOOO MANY GOOD THINGS. Elder Scrolls V, Homefront, Bulletstorm, Portal 2, Crysis 2. SO MUCH WIN!

assuming youre not being sarcastic I find youre optimismm very refreshing, thats problem people are so negative It gets annoying

and we still have great developers like Valve and Bioware (dragon age 2!!!!!!!)

I'm not being sarcastic, I'm so happy. I can't wait for all the games.

 

[Kelethor]

Thing are never as bad as we think they are. Thats my theory

Also, theres very little we can do as consumers too improve the industry. Buy the games we do like, don't buy the ones we don't. in this manner, we can show the Industry what we want, thus allowing them too make more products for out interest.

 

[MisterShine]

This year will be different. SOOOOO MANY GOOD THINGS. Elder Scrolls V, Homefront, Bulletstorm, Portal 2, Crysis 2. SO MUCH WIN!

assuming youre not being sarcastic I find youre optimismm very refreshing, thats problem people are so negative It gets annoying

and we still have great developers like Valve and Bioware (dragon age 2!!!!!!!)

Plus Journey, El Shaddai, Brink, Rage, Stacked, I Am Alive.. all of them are very good looking new IP's coming in '11.

Things don't look so bleak to me.

 

[Sixcess]

That article is laughable.

Now, I don't want to be the type to say "I told you so." Let me instead just say that a couple of years back I made a prediction about the gaming industry and that my prediction is on the verge of coming true and that I now wish to emphasize the fact that I told you about it beforehand.

So in 2005 or so he said there was going to be another video games crash.
...
In 2007 he said that prediction was on the verge of coming true.
...
It's now 2011 (incidentally also not the end of the current gen cycle, so that's another fail on his part) and there's still no crash.

Anyway, video gaming is perfectly healthy. Black Ops's first 5 days broke sales records across ALL entertainment mediums. That's not the sign of an industry in trouble. If you can't take comfort from the success of big bad Activision then you can look at indies like Amnesia (200K sold, far exceeding the expectations of the developer) and of course Minecraft, among others.

The only threat I can see on the horizon is either a) ever increasing development budgets leading to a price hike that people are less willing to pay, or b) panic caused by one of the big guys taking a shattering loss on a very expensive mega-flop. Either is possible, but the first is a long term risk, and the second isn't likely, unless The Old Republic turns out to be a disaster of APB-like proportions, which it won't be... probably.

 

[JUMBO PALACE]

This year will be different. SOOOOO MANY GOOD THINGS. Elder Scrolls V, Homefront, Bulletstorm, Portal 2, Crysis 2. SO MUCH WIN!

assuming youre not being sarcastic I find youre optimismm very refreshing, thats problem people are so negative It gets annoying

and we still have great developers like Valve and Bioware (dragon age 2!!!!!!!)

I'm not being sarcastic, I'm so happy. I can't wait for all the games.

I couldn't agree more. This year looks AWESOME

 

[migo]

I don't think there'll be a crash, just a massive shift. The freemium model is really changing things. When people can get plenty of games for free on PC, there's very little incentive to go out and pay $60 for a game. iOS gaming is having a similar effect - games can actually be free for iOS, as well as otherwise being cheaper than on other handheld consoles.

What we might end up seeing is Sony allowing devs to make free games for the PS3 so that it becomes a more attractive console for end users (although really they should have done it before removing OtherOS... ooops).

I have a strong feeling Nintendo might get squashed. They look to be making a bunch of mistakes with the 3DS, and the Wii has lost steam (also meaning people might be a little shy to buy into what appears to be just another gimmick).

 

[Azaraxzealot]

in todays industry we only seem to have 2 choices in our games
various breeds of shooters or arty 2d (or 2.5d) platformers

it sucks for now, but 2011 looks promising (RELAUNCH OF APB!)

 

[oplinger]

Well, the ENTIRE INDUSTRY has never really been artistically bankrupt. Just a few large corporations.

However if we had another "crash" it really would not be a crash. We'd see more independent development rather than giant AAA titles. Considering 2 key facts

1. The entire internet.
2. The gaming community is rather large. Unlike before.

...We're fine.

 

[Midnight Crossroads]

At least it'll give me time to finish up my backlog and find new hobbies.

 

[Vault101]

That article is laughable.

Now, I don't want to be the type to say "I told you so." Let me instead just say that a couple of years back I made a prediction about the gaming industry and that my prediction is on the verge of coming true and that I now wish to emphasize the fact that I told you about it beforehand.

So in 2005 or so he said there was going to be another video games crash.
...
In 2007 he said that prediction was on the verge of coming true.
...
It's now 2011 (incidentally also not the end of the current gen cycle, so that's another fail on his part) and there's still no crash.

Anyway, video gaming is perfectly healthy. Black Ops's first 5 days broke sales records across ALL entertainment mediums. That's not the sign of an industry in trouble. If you can't take comfort from the success of big bad Activision then you can look at indies like Amnesia (200K sold, far exceeding the expectations of the developer) and of course Minecraft, among others.

The only threat I can see on the horizon is either a) ever increasing development budgets leading to a price hike that people are less willing to pay, or b) panic caused by one of the big guys taking a shattering loss on a very expensive mega-flop. Either is possible, but the first is a long term risk, and the second isn't likely, unless The Old Republic turns out to be a disaster of APB-like proportions, which it won't be... probably.

Yeah I found it annoying because it was like "ohhh its david wong! what he says is gospel truth!" dont get me wrong this guy writes great stuff but his veiws on videogames are a little skewed, he only focuses on the samey popular shooters to back up his points (ageis ago I did a thread on another article he did after this one "why its still not cool to admit youre a gamer" pionting out that gaming hadnt matured....while somewhat true if somone liek me who dosent fit the demographic (Female) can still find games to enjoy then things arnt that bad

anyway I hope if the old republic bombs it wont sink my favorite developer, but I dont see that happening not so sure about star wars but people have faith in Bioware

 

[BRex21]

There is plenty of fairly original stuff coming out, I found Mass Effect to be "something new" even though its a play on the fairly common Space Marine V Giant alien evil genre. Hell a lot of sequels are on my preorder list, largely for story, not novelty.
Also the X-box thing was anticipated long before this guy reported it. It was part of Microsoft's pricing plan. They take a hit on the consoles to make up the money in game sales, If that sounds like a losing proposition clearly you have never heard of a company called xerox who became an industry leader with the same strategy.
I really cant stand this guys either misrepresenting or misunderstanding economics. I bet more people own one of those $2000.00 HDTVs than realize it, mostly because what was a $2000 TV in 2000, was probably a $1000 tv in 2005 is probably a $500 tv now. My TV cost $350 and its pretty sweet.
Also, he says games should be more like sitcoms, that we just keep watching. Who watches the same show they were watching back when the Atari was out, hell, back when the PS2 was in, I bet its pretty rare. I also bet a lot of you have Purchased a new TV in that time.
Anyway this has become yet another of my long winded rants so i will conclude with this. No one who owns a poorly maintained 85 Trans Am should be lecturing industries on economic practice

 

[Wolfenbarg]

I don't know if there can be a crash quite as bad as the one in the 80's since gaming is such a huge form of entertainment, but I think gaming is in for a huge correction. This generation started with some very bad habits. They launched consoles and sold units at a loss, only making a profit off of the number of games sold due to the licensing fee. Developers in a race for the most photo-realistic graphics set a bad standard of developing games with budgets so high that risk had to be pinned down to the lowest common denominator. Those were the trends that started this generation off, so they have carried on into the present. While it does continue to get cheaper to produce games, the budgets are still too high for a highly competitive market to allow everyone to recoup their costs.

I'm not an expert and haven't worked for the industry like some of the people who have made these speculations, but I think that a few things are going to stick because of this. One of them being that this generation will be a LONG one. We'll eventually get to the point that the PC regains the considerable lead that it used to have over the consoles by such a degree that people complain. However Microsoft and Sony will probably kick stones around and shrug their shoulders while trying to put out a less risky add-on every few years. Another thing which I am a bit more hopeful for is that we'll see an equivalent to the low budget masterpieces of cinema. Games made for considerably less than AAA studios typically manage, but just as good or even better.

I kind of hope that Extra Credits makes an episode about this. It's something I've been wondering as well, and I'm hearing about it more often.

 

[Sixcess]

anyway I hope if the old republic bombs it wont sink my favorite developer, but I dont see that happening not so sure about star wars but people have faith in Bioware

I wouldn't worry about Bioware. If the worst case scenario does occur - and it is an absolute worst case scenario - it won't harm their rep for single player RPGs.

I probably worry about TOR failing more than I should, not because of the game itself - I'm relatively indifferent to it - but because of the potential effect it could have on the rest of the genre. It's such a big title that if it doesn't do well investors are going to become very wary of financing future AAA MMOs, though I think people are starting to put less faith in that particular golden goose anyway, now that it's blindingly apparent that noone's going to seriously challenge WoW.

Indeed WoW is actually one case where the dominance of a single title could harm the broader market. With so many titles going F2P the MMO side of gaming will probably see the biggest shake ups over the next few years. Huge start up investment + questionable returns is not a good combination.