BioWare's Star Wars MMO Won't Make Any Money, Says Free-to-Play Developer
- Thread starter Logan Westbrook
- Start date
So you completely dismiss his argument because he isn't a big budget creator? It's safe to say that he may not have the required perspective, but just an instant dismissal is unjustifiable.Crimsane said:
It makes sense.
Many prospective players of KOTOR are people who like MMO type games.
The majority of those who like MMO games play WoW
WoW requires a subscription
I believe that many people are not willing to subscribe and pay for 2 full-time type games monthly. Many are willing to do so, but you can't ignore that a sizable proportion will not.
My conclusion is: Make it either GuildWars format, or an optional "Lifetime" payment which, instead of paying say £10 a month, you can pay a one-time fee and never need to pay again. This means people who like the game enough to play it, but they're mainly playing WoW, would feel like they have a game they can hop back into at any time, and not worry about money trickling away from them while they aren't even using it.
Let's use some more realistic numbers.fierydemise said:
The game itself will likely cost $60 - of that, roughly $25 goes to the publisher (in this case EA, which is paying for development).
Subscription fee is unknown, but $15/month seems likely.
Operating expenses are generally take up 30% to 50% of subscription fees - so being pessimistic, this eats up $7.50/month of that $15, and assuming the games sells with a free trial month, the operating expenses for the first month come out of the $25/copy mentioned above, leaving $17.50/copy sold.
The most optimistic outcome is recouping development expenses off of initial box sales - if this happens, the game is immediately profitable, and the game is unlikely to fail no matter how badly the launch goes. (This is what happened to Age of Conan - which is why the game is still around and actually growing again.) Assuming a development budget of $100 to $300 million, this requires 5.7 to 17 million copies sold - possible but unlikely at the low end, all but unthinkable at the high end.
Now, provided that does not happen - as mentioned above, operating expenses are generally less than subscription fee revenue, so even if the game is not immediately profitable just from box sales, it is all but guaranteed to generate a profit at some point as long as the player base is large enough to justify operating more than a handful of serves/realms/shards. Completely ignoring box sales, the game reaches profitability after 13.3 to 40 million player-months.
If we assume a fairly bad launch - say 1 million copies sold, 10% retention, thus 100,000 subscribers overall, which is roughly on par with Conan and Warhammer - with a $300 million budget, the game will recoup development expenses around mid-2014, (with a $100 million budget, it would recoup after 11 months) generating $90 million a year in profits from then on. 2 million copies sold with 25% retention recoups development costs after 4 to 15 months, with $225 million a year on profit afterward.
And while 3 years to recoup would be unthinkable for many smaller developers, SWToR is being funded by Electronic Arts. A company with annual revenue of $6 billion can afford to wait three years for a $300 million investment to pay off.
In short, if the total cost of development is $100 million, The Old Republic will be in pretty good shape as long as it doesn't launch as poorly as FFXIV did. If it's closer to $300 million, it'll be fine if it outperforms Warhammer Online and Age of Conan. Mr. Hubertz is smoking crack.
And for those who like to point out that Bioware has never made an MMO before, please note: a) Bioware currently owns Mythic (now Bioware Mythic), the operator of Warhammer Online, and b) SWToR is being developed by Bioware Austin, which has several employees who have been working in the MMO industry for over a decade.
Star Wars has a HUGE fanbase though. Think about it demographic-wise:
- Kids who are very young and only know of the prequel movies.
- Same kids who have only experienced Star Wars through The Clone Wars.
- The gamers who remember the first two KotoR games.
- Fans of Jedi Outcast, old SNES games.
- People who will leave WoW (As a former player it gets old really, really fast) for TOR because they just want to.
- People often leave WoW anyway to try something else new, because WoW has great gameplay value but once you've seen it it's mainly just the addiction driving you to create another char.
- The adults who still remember the serious nature Star Wars once had.
- People will get it because it's Star Wars.
- The fact that it can potentially hold its own against WoW with the fanbase itself will make people want to give a shot.
Blizz destroying it isn't going to be, but it has the people to back it up. I'll admit that my eyes went wide when I saw the preview trailer with the Jedi Temple battle I instantly said "okay, I'll give this game a shot". However, in the end it depends on how the game itself is as a whole. Replay values is one of the main factors behind WoW's success, hence why other MMO's have faltered.
- Kids who are very young and only know of the prequel movies.
- Same kids who have only experienced Star Wars through The Clone Wars.
- The gamers who remember the first two KotoR games.
- Fans of Jedi Outcast, old SNES games.
- People who will leave WoW (As a former player it gets old really, really fast) for TOR because they just want to.
- People often leave WoW anyway to try something else new, because WoW has great gameplay value but once you've seen it it's mainly just the addiction driving you to create another char.
- The adults who still remember the serious nature Star Wars once had.
- People will get it because it's Star Wars.
- The fact that it can potentially hold its own against WoW with the fanbase itself will make people want to give a shot.
Blizz destroying it isn't going to be, but it has the people to back it up. I'll admit that my eyes went wide when I saw the preview trailer with the Jedi Temple battle I instantly said "okay, I'll give this game a shot". However, in the end it depends on how the game itself is as a whole. Replay values is one of the main factors behind WoW's success, hence why other MMO's have faltered.
It's a stupid comment for several reasons.
1. It is Star Wars. The franchise alone will bring loads of players.
2. We're talking about a game with the financial backing of both EA and LucasArts.
3. Bioware hasn't announced the payment method for the game yet.
Number 3 is really the most important. Bioware has avoided making the announcement for quite a while now, which if anything indicates that they are researching alternative methods of payment. So for this person to claim it will fail based on how he assumes it is going to operate is just ignorant.
1. It is Star Wars. The franchise alone will bring loads of players.
2. We're talking about a game with the financial backing of both EA and LucasArts.
3. Bioware hasn't announced the payment method for the game yet.
Number 3 is really the most important. Bioware has avoided making the announcement for quite a while now, which if anything indicates that they are researching alternative methods of payment. So for this person to claim it will fail based on how he assumes it is going to operate is just ignorant.
Basing this on?RvLeshrac said:
I know they alot of players do that but "most" would mean the majority and I really doubt that 6 million people quit playing every few months.
Say that to WoW - subscription based and still going strong.
However, I too, depict a bad end for BioWare's MMO. Not because I don't have confidence in BioWare to create a good game, but because I don't think it will take off or be good ENOUGH.
MMO's are a mistake - anyone going up against WoW for now, is destined to be slaughtered. It isn't that WoW is invincible forever, it's just that it's invincible NOW.
However, I too, depict a bad end for BioWare's MMO. Not because I don't have confidence in BioWare to create a good game, but because I don't think it will take off or be good ENOUGH.
MMO's are a mistake - anyone going up against WoW for now, is destined to be slaughtered. It isn't that WoW is invincible forever, it's just that it's invincible NOW.
You do realize that both Starwars and Bioware has legions of fans who have been waiting in anticipation for this release
Besides they are going to market this as both a starwars and a bioware game sure one or two add will say this is a WoW killer (which I highly doubt), overall I think the game may keeps it's popularity if it's as good as they say it is (which is good)
Besides they are going to market this as both a starwars and a bioware game sure one or two add will say this is a WoW killer (which I highly doubt), overall I think the game may keeps it's popularity if it's as good as they say it is (which is good)
Actually Blizzard don't count their inactive subscribers... Which is why the 12 million took a dive to 10 million during the "Icecrown Bore - Downtime". So...it is really a big blob of an elephant tied more by social obligation to a point than actual gameplay reasons.RvLeshrac said:
But hey I like WoW it's like a reliable yet not too fattening meal you order on the menu when nothing else looks appealing to me.
Truth be told, SW:TOR is most likely going to be another grindfest with gimmicks, and if you've gone through that in WoW, you won't want to do it again.
Star Wars is going to do well.
How well, and how long it will do well, time will tell.
Of the comments posted here I would like to address
1) "It won't make its money back"
If the game can average 250,000 subscribers, paying the (assumed)$15 monthly that's close to $4 mill in monthly revenue. This is money that, to my knowledge, all goes directly to the company. Some mentioned the $60 price on the game client and how Bioware only sees a smal piece of that, what about the online sales direct from them? Regardless, after inital dev costs (100-300 mill if leaks are to be believed), plus advertising, plus monthly maintenance, dev staff etc. I'd say after the huge outlay of cash, they'll be in the black soon enough, unless the game blows. Heck a friend of mine who's a moderate Star Wars fan, but not an MMO fan is planning on playing, so that's a good sign right there.
2)"VS WoW"
As some have said, who cares! Yes WoW is a huge juggernaught. Yes it has 10 - 12 million players....guess what, any number of those people can play other MMOs. I myself currently play City Of Heroes (don't judge me), I know a number of gamers I play with who do, or have played WoW as well (At a time when both were subscription based, CoH has gone F2P now also). As has been said, it isn't an Either/or case, many people can afford a few extra bucks if they feel the game is worth it. I'm looking foreward to SW:TOR, and believe many will think its worth it. Some won't, of course, but that's how things work. I don't think TOR will ever be as huge as WoW is, or will "Beat WoW into submission" and, I don't see that it has to either. If your game is good enough, and your pricing is appropriate, there is plenty of the gamer pie for several MMOs to exist. Sure a few WoWers might play TOR and decide to dump WoW, some might try TOR and decide to dump it and stay with WoW, the point is, I doubt Blizzard is worried.
3) "Sure Star wars is a popular Franchise, but so is Star Trek and they ain't making big MMO dollars"
To any who say this, I ask you, "Have you played STO(Star Trek Online)?".
Short answer, a bad MMO can't be saved by a franchise.
I have. I prebought, joined the beta and was enamored by the "$295 for lifetime subscribership, if you buy now, and we throw in this in game junk also 'cause you're gulible", so $355 later (60 for the game) I was a lifetime subscriber to a game that was very cool....for the first month.
Honestly it had some quality content for missions/quests, just not many of them(Some cool missions, but when you roll a new toon, you get pretty much all the same missions from start to finish, at the same levels). I've played the game about 3 times in the last year...had I been a monthly subscriber, I'd have long since dumped it. They've also had the "pay real cash for credits to Buy additional game content" almost since the get go. Now to be fair, as said I pretty much stopped playing a few months in, going back for a day or two on the odd occasion, so there may be a lot more content I have not seen. But the point is that they wowed me at the start, and then I got bored, and if others feel that way (And were paying per month) they might not end up giving it a second chance! And let's face it, once you decide a game sucks, you aren't likely to shell out $15 to try it out to see if "it sucks less enough to be worth it".
Heck it was the bad taste left in my mouth from STO that lead me to avoid trying DCUO when it came out.
So if SW:TOR can have a quality game with decent and varied content (and my understanding is that there is a different mission arc from lvl 1 - 10 for all 8 classes)then they may have a
shot out the gate.
Just my opinions based on my incredible expertise as a guy who thinks he knows everything!
How well, and how long it will do well, time will tell.
Of the comments posted here I would like to address
1) "It won't make its money back"
If the game can average 250,000 subscribers, paying the (assumed)$15 monthly that's close to $4 mill in monthly revenue. This is money that, to my knowledge, all goes directly to the company. Some mentioned the $60 price on the game client and how Bioware only sees a smal piece of that, what about the online sales direct from them? Regardless, after inital dev costs (100-300 mill if leaks are to be believed), plus advertising, plus monthly maintenance, dev staff etc. I'd say after the huge outlay of cash, they'll be in the black soon enough, unless the game blows. Heck a friend of mine who's a moderate Star Wars fan, but not an MMO fan is planning on playing, so that's a good sign right there.
2)"VS WoW"
As some have said, who cares! Yes WoW is a huge juggernaught. Yes it has 10 - 12 million players....guess what, any number of those people can play other MMOs. I myself currently play City Of Heroes (don't judge me), I know a number of gamers I play with who do, or have played WoW as well (At a time when both were subscription based, CoH has gone F2P now also). As has been said, it isn't an Either/or case, many people can afford a few extra bucks if they feel the game is worth it. I'm looking foreward to SW:TOR, and believe many will think its worth it. Some won't, of course, but that's how things work. I don't think TOR will ever be as huge as WoW is, or will "Beat WoW into submission" and, I don't see that it has to either. If your game is good enough, and your pricing is appropriate, there is plenty of the gamer pie for several MMOs to exist. Sure a few WoWers might play TOR and decide to dump WoW, some might try TOR and decide to dump it and stay with WoW, the point is, I doubt Blizzard is worried.
3) "Sure Star wars is a popular Franchise, but so is Star Trek and they ain't making big MMO dollars"
To any who say this, I ask you, "Have you played STO(Star Trek Online)?".
Short answer, a bad MMO can't be saved by a franchise.
I have. I prebought, joined the beta and was enamored by the "$295 for lifetime subscribership, if you buy now, and we throw in this in game junk also 'cause you're gulible", so $355 later (60 for the game) I was a lifetime subscriber to a game that was very cool....for the first month.
Honestly it had some quality content for missions/quests, just not many of them(Some cool missions, but when you roll a new toon, you get pretty much all the same missions from start to finish, at the same levels). I've played the game about 3 times in the last year...had I been a monthly subscriber, I'd have long since dumped it. They've also had the "pay real cash for credits to Buy additional game content" almost since the get go. Now to be fair, as said I pretty much stopped playing a few months in, going back for a day or two on the odd occasion, so there may be a lot more content I have not seen. But the point is that they wowed me at the start, and then I got bored, and if others feel that way (And were paying per month) they might not end up giving it a second chance! And let's face it, once you decide a game sucks, you aren't likely to shell out $15 to try it out to see if "it sucks less enough to be worth it".
Heck it was the bad taste left in my mouth from STO that lead me to avoid trying DCUO when it came out.
So if SW:TOR can have a quality game with decent and varied content (and my understanding is that there is a different mission arc from lvl 1 - 10 for all 8 classes)then they may have a
shot out the gate.
Just my opinions based on my incredible expertise as a guy who thinks he knows everything!