Climate Nearing “Point of No Return”

[Hawki]

‘Staggering’ green growth gives hope for 1.5C, says global energy chief

IEA’s Fatih Birol says uptake of solar power and EVs is in line with net zero goal but rich countries must hasten their broader plans

www.theguardian.com

Basically reiterating what I said above.

I know hopium is a thing, but from a scientific standpoint, this is significant. From a social standpoint, it's also significant when you consider the green growth vs. degrowth argument (since the latter is a no-go politically).

 

[Satinavian]

I am less optimistic. Just because in some areas the currently high oil price drives renewables beyond projections doesn't mean much. That has happened before. And then, when the price fell again, renewable installation slowed accordingly. And the price will fall : Not only will the Ukrainian war be over at some point, the world slowly moving to renewables means an oversupply of oil and gas and a lot of coutries who want to make money from it as long as they still have a market.

Furthermore while wind and photovoltaics are doing well, transitioning the transport sector is still way slower than projected with a lot of open questions.

 

[Ag3ma]

Basically reiterating what I said above.

I know hopium is a thing, but from a scientific standpoint, this is significant. From a social standpoint, it's also significant when you consider the green growth vs. degrowth argument (since the latter is a no-go politically).

One of the things that makes me want to bang my head against the table is people whining about the price of the oil, and then fanatically insisting they remain dependent on it when the oil supply is mostly in the hands of foreign states that are neither well-disposed to theirs nor inclined to give up the massive profits available.

I wonder whether they might finally twig that they'd be better off cutting that particular cord.

 

[Gordon_4]

I wonder whether they might finally twig that they'd be better off cutting that particular cord.

The instant that doing so doesn't instantly add at least one hour in both directions to work commute or turn a grocery shopping trip into a cross fit session.

 

[Baffle]

The instant that doing so doesn't instantly add at least one hour in both directions to work commute or turn a grocery shopping trip into a cross fit session.

Doing insane cross-fit pull up flops to save the planet.

 

[Eacaraxe]

I am less optimistic. Just because in some areas the currently high oil price drives renewables beyond projections doesn't mean much. That has happened before. And then, when the price fell again, renewable installation slowed accordingly. And the price will fall : Not only will the Ukrainian war be over at some point, the world slowly moving to renewables means an oversupply of oil and gas and a lot of coutries who want to make money from it as long as they still have a market.

Furthermore while wind and photovoltaics are doing well, transitioning the transport sector is still way slower than projected with a lot of open questions.

The mass transport question is unlikely to be solved without small modular reactors. National/international smart grids are better, but that would take years even on a new deal/WWII-era scale of international mobilization which we don't have. SMR's provide walk-away safe onsite power generation sufficient for personal EV charging, and for commercial fleet fueling/charging. The former for hydrogen fuel cells, the latter for EV's.

The petroleum industry isn't going away, but it's down to whether we burn it as fuel, or process it into chemical products that can't be synthesized yet. Peak oil doesn't just affect transport, which is the other shoe waiting to drop on the public's head.

 

[Hawki]

Transition to clean energy is now ‘unstoppable’, IEA says

Fossil fuel demand could peak by the end of the decade but the world needs to get behind the clean energy transition to keep climate goals in sight.

www.euronews.com

I'm usually sparing with posting here, and by itself this article isn't saying anything I haven't posted before, but there is a little titbit there that caught my attention - that the world is on track for 2.4C warming by century's end.

Now, that's bad, like, really bad, but not too long ago, the projection was 3C, and before that, the projection was 4C, so while the West Antarctic Ice Shelf is nightmare fuel, sometimes I want my pixie dust as well.

 

[Ag3ma]

snip

Mm, and you know what else research has suggested may be unstoppable?

Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change

The authors use a regional ocean model to project ocean-driven ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea. Already committed rapid ocean warming drives increased melt, regardless of emission scenario, suggesting extensive ice loss from West Antarctica.

www.nature.com

Potential 5 metre rise in sea levels from this alone. Enjoy, coastal cities like New York and Shanghai! Admittedly, ETA for the worst of this is probably post-2100.

 

[BrawlMan]

Both respective points are timed stamped.
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[Hawki]

Both respective points are timed stamped.
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I will say in Captain Planet's defence that there's a line you can draw between the villains who outright wanted to harm the planet (e.g. Dr. Blight, Skumm, Zarm), and those who had an "eff the world, got mine" attitude (Hoggish Greedly, Sly Sludge, Looten Plunder, etc.)

But, um, yeah...

 

[Hawki]

And in other news:

Analysis: Global CO2 emissions could peak as soon as 2023, IEA data reveals - Carbon Brief

Global carbon dioxide emissions from energy use and industry could peak as soon as this year, according to Carbon Brief analysis of figures from the IEA.

www.carbonbrief.org

(Skeptical, but I need hopium.)

 

[BrawlMan]

I will say in Captain Planet's defence that there's a line you can draw between the villains who outright wanted to harm the planet (e.g. Dr. Blight, Skumm, Zarm), and those who had an "eff the world, got mine" attitude (Hoggish Greedly, Sly Sludge, Looten Plunder, etc.)

Yep. Due note Sly Sludge was the only villain to go straight in his final appearance and decided to dispose of his waste properly.

 

[Hawki]

https://theconversation.com/carbon-...-current-emissions-levels-new-research-216459

 

[Kwak]

Line go up.

 

[Specter Von Baren]

Chilling moment gunman kills two protesters blocking road in Panama

The killer, who shot two protestors in shocking video, could avoid prison because of his age

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Ag3ma]

Chilling moment gunman kills two protesters blocking road in Panama

The killer, who shot two protestors in shocking video, could avoid prison because of his age

www.telegraph.co.uk

By the Telegraph's standards, what was most "chilling" was probably that the protestors had been able to block the road in the first place.

 

[Schadrach]

transitioning the transport sector is still way slower than projected with a lot of open questions.

Mostly due to practical concerns. Once you can haul 40,000 pounds of cargo a thousand miles and not have to spend any more time or money fueling your vehicle than you would with a diesel truck the transport sector will start switching over. That's...a tall order.

 

[Silvanus]

Cop28 host UAE has world’s biggest climate-busting oil plans, data indicates

State oil company’s huge expansion plans make its CEO’s role as president of UN climate summit ‘ridiculous’, say researchers

www.theguardian.com

So, COP28 will be kicking off, hosted by the UAE. ADNOC, the UAE's state oil company, is the company with the single most harmful expansion plan in the world to the net-zero goal. It was also leaked that the hosts had planned to use COP28 to promote oil deals-- it's unclear if those deals will still receive promotion now the hosts have been pressured into denials.

...but another big polluting industry aiming to have a huge presence is meat & dairy. JBS, the largest food processing company in the world, aims to lobby hard on behalf of meat & dairy. The dairy industry remains one of the biggest polluters, above even aviation.

Big Meat Unveils Battle Plans for COP28

Major meat companies and industry lobby groups are planning a large presence at COP28, equipped with a communications plan to get a pro-meat message heard by policymakers throughout the summit, DeSmog can reveal. Documents seen by DeSmog and the Guardian show that the meat industry is poised to...

www.desmog.com

No wonder people have dwindling faith in the political initiatives to tackle climate change. The UAE hosting COP28 strikes me as a bit like appointing Harold Shipman as Chief Medical Officer.

 

[Silvanus]

An early agreement has been reached to create a losses and damages fund to assist poorer countries with the impacts of climate change. Its largest early contributors will be UAE and Germany at 100m each. Fund in its entirety is meant to be about ~430m.

I'm reminded of the Bullingdon Club (a club for kids at Eton, a very expensive private school here in the UK, which a large number of Tory politicians go to). The club members used to smash people's windows and then leave money with the owners to pay for replacements. I wonder why that came to mind.

 

[Cicada 5]

Most People Globally Support ‘Whatever It Takes’ to Limit Climate Change

But there’s a disconnect between what politicians say and what the public wants.

gizmodo.com