Do you play the Lotto?

[Dirty Apple]

My shop at work is all in a tizzy right now because the lottery is up over 70 million. There are reports of line-ups at local convenience stores, and people spending record amounts on tickets.

I just don't get it. I know the old argument that lottos are just poor people taxes and that doesn't bother me. What gets me is the earnest hope that some of these players exhibit when purchasing their "chance". I once tried to explain to someone that the odds of winning a major lottery are so infintesimal that the likelyhood of my winning WITHOUT a ticket are about as good as his with one. Or, I once tried to use a metaphor: I told him to hide somewhere in the city and I'd randomly shoot a rifle into the air. My chances of hitting him with the errant bullet are about the same as winning.

I like to believe that, in general, people are inherently rational, and when presented with a near zero percent chance of winning they'd walk away. So, is it the eternal nature of humanity's affinity for hope, or are people just gullible?

 

[Marter]

I don't, as I'm not old enough. I wouldn't play anyway, as I've always had terrible luck.

My father does every now and then, and my mother's parents play it every week.

 

[Pandalisk]

People just like to hope, i find it almost admirable.

My parents play the Lotto, but its more "For the sake of it" rather than trying to actually win, they get one every two weeks.

 

[The Eggplant]

Very occasionally. It's an amusing diversion and can be a bit of an adrenaline rush, but given that my personality is prone to addiction to begin with, I don't dare do so regularly. (See also: why I don't game much, why I don't do drugs, why I've ended up working out two-three times a day...)

 

[LavaLampBamboo]

Every now and again. Someone's got to win it I suppose.

 

[FretfulGnome]

They're in a tizzy over 70 million? What state do you live in? And your logic is a little flawed in the fact that you can still win money even if you don't win the jackpot.

 

[Marmooset]

I find the odds are roughly the same of someone winning who likes me enough to support me even if I don't play - and that way, I'm up a buck!

 

[Carbonic Penguin]

Because a ticket costs so little, and the rewards are so big, people don't really care about the odds, after all, there's a chance. Of course, the money spent builds up, but hey, whatever floats your boat.

 

[The Maddest March Hare]

Only on very rare occasions. Won a tenner. Woop de doo. But hey, the chances of winning even that much are pretty slim, so I guess I should be happy that I even got that far.

 

[SturmDolch]

I've bought maybe... 5 tickets in my life? But I don't think I will ever again. It's exciting to think of winning, but the chances are so small. Maybe if I had a job.

 

[DeadlyYellow]

Wrong. A man who participates in a contest always has a higher chance of winning over someone who does not.

Can't win if you don't play. As for myself, I just stick to the scratch-offs.

 

[Dirty Apple]

They're in a tizzy over 70 million? What state do you live in? And your logic is a little flawed in the fact that you can still win money even if you don't win the jackpot.

I'm in Canada's western provinces which have a rough population of 7 million between the 4 of them. Smaller population means smaller pot sizes at least when comparing to some of the American lotteries. Also, canadian lottery winners don't pay any taxes on their winnings.

As to your second point about flawed logic, no one I know plays the lottery for secondary prizes and even if they were they wouldn't amount to the sum of money one can spend on a lifetime of tickets.

 

[child of lileth]

When I was little, I'd do it. I'd just use those machines that give you the scratch off ones. But I don't these days. I just don't have the money to put into something so random. One person I know was saying, "By the time you actually win, you probably don't even break even with how much you put into it." I think that's pretty true.

 

[Dirty Apple]

Wrong. A man who participates in a contest always has a higher chance of winning over someone who does not.

You're right of course, but I'm talking in a practical sense. If I could use the Dumb and Dumber example, if a girl tells you the chances of dating her are 1 in a 1000000, do you still believe that it's a possibility? I guess what I'm saying is that people confuse probability with possibility.

 

[DeadlyYellow]

You're right of course, but I'm talking in a practical sense. If I could use the Dumb and Dumber example, if a girl tells you the chances of dating her are 1 in a 1000000, do you still believe that it's a possibility? I guess what I'm saying is that people confuse probability with possibility.

Except that is an idiom showing complete disinterest in someone and not an actual source of probability.

 

[Dirty Apple]

Except that is an idiom showing complete disinterest in someone and not an actual source of probability.

Ok, I like where this is going. I know that quantum physics tells us that there is a possibility of atoms synchronizing allowing me to walk through a solid object, albeit an astronomically low one. So, if someone was trapped in a room should they continue to try and walk through the door in the hopes that they beat the odds. I know this is a reductio ad absurdum argument, but it bears true on what I'm trying to say about everyday practicality and ridiculously low probabilities.

 

[DeadlyYellow]

Ok, I like where this is going. I know that quantum physics tells us that there is a possibility of atoms synchronizing allowing me to walk through a solid object, albeit an astronomically low one. So, if someone was trapped in a room should they continue to try and walk through the door in the hopes that they beat the odds. I know this is a reductio ad absurdum argument, but it bears true on what I'm trying to say about everyday practicality and ridiculously low probabilities.

I'd say that realistically, you'd have a better chance at winning the lottery.

 

[Billion Backs]

No. It's just gambling.

I might buy a ticket some time, just for the sake of it, but the way some people get obsessed over it and start relying on something against astronomical odds is jut stupid.

It's incredibly improbable, but if you win, you win. But if you try to depend on it and sink thousands of dollars into it, it's not worth it. It's just random luck.

 

[Nalgas D. Lemur]

I'd say that realistically, you'd have a better chance at winning the lottery.

I'd say that realistically you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning while getting eaten by a shark than either of those.

I have better things to waste the little bit of money I do have on. I spent far too much time learning the math involved in probability/statistics back in the day to pretend that it's realistic to think I or anyone I know is remotely likely to win any significant amount.

 

[Dirty Apple]

I'd say that realistically you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning while getting eaten by a shark than either of those.

I have better things to waste the little bit of money I do have on. I spent far too much time learning the math involved in probability/statistics back in the day to pretend that it's realistic to think I or anyone I know is remotely likely to win any significant amount.

I'm glad someone with a stats background chimed in. Welcome aboard. I'm equally glad that you see the topic the same way I do. Also, do you know if there's a term used to describe the threshold that has to be crossed where the probability becomes so low that it might as well be impossible?