Atmos Duality said:
Taken from a purely-pragmatic point of view: Exclusives are exactly what EA needs to launch Origin.
What incentive do I have to play on EA's Origin when I can get it somewhere else without their bullshit attached to it? I can practically guarantee that it will be much more intrusive than Steamworks (based on EA's previous attempts at enforcing draconian DRM).
Also, it might not be up to Valve. EA owns the rights for licensing their published games. Unless they're already locked into a contract with Steam (with the appropriate inescapable clauses), they can choose who does and does not get to market their game on a First Sale Basis.
I agree that from a purely economic standpoint that EA should not limit sales to their new system, but at the same time they have just created their own conflict of interest in doing so, at least in comparison to Steam.
They may make an exception for Mass Effect 3, but certainly not for all of their future titles afterwards.
Perhaps a more appropriate comparison could be made to Blizzard's Battlenet 2.0, which sounds functionally similar to Origin.
And Blizzard is wondering why most of South Korea is still sticking with the original Starcraft...
Despite EA's idiotic sales tactics, the only thing that they're concerned about is the bottom line. That's why they launched Origin in the first place- they want a bigger cut of distributor prices than what they were getting for their games on Steam. However, Origin is next to unknown compared to Steam, and limiting hot games to it would hurt sales. And a comparatively smaller cut of the sales is better than no sales at all.
I agree that EA might make an exception to Mass Effect 3's exclusivity, and its odds are better than many people think. EA is running exclusive download disribution rights on The Old Republic as a field test for how effective it can be. This is very risky, as MMO sales and subscription fees literally
keep the game alive. EA has dumped more money into this game than any other of its titles, so it might be killing TOR before it even began with this tactic. Perhaps in order to save such an enormous investment they'll be forced to crawl back to Steam for increased ranges of sales. At least they'll still get the subscription fees. And if it fails, Mass Effect 3 will be up on Steam.
Or I could be wrong about this. Perhaps Origin could take off to a flying start thanks to TOR's exclusivity. If it does, you can bet that Steam won't be seeing Mass Effect 3. And, personally, I won't be too bothered by it. I think that many gamers just love complaining about trivial little things like where they get their games from. My library consists of games from Steam, Gamersgate, Direct2Drive and Gog.com. And I'm sure that plenty of others have diverse sources for their PC libraries. For me it won't be a big deal to add one more distributor to where I get my games.
In the end, it comes down to how well TOR will do on Origin.