Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

[Revnak]

Do you have any evidence to suggest that's how things work there, or anywhere for that matter? I've never heard of it, but I'm not some sort of mail expert.

No, it’s more likely to be something like that than multiple post offices mailing ballots to themselves then filling them out without changing the address tho, which is the alternative
Edit: or, some conspiracy adds a ton of fake ballots to the count, but choose to fake their addresses to units at the post office rather than PO Boxes

 

[Houseman]

No, it’s more likely to be something like that than multiple post offices mailing ballots to themselves then filling them out without changing the address tho, which is the alternative

I think the claim is that the alleged individuals who cast the votes put down that their registered address are at post offices, UPS, and FedEx offices. It don't think it has anything to do with where the ballots were mailed to or from. When you register to vote, your name and address becomes public record. I think this is what is being looked at.

 

[Revnak]

I think the claim is that the alleged individuals who cast the votes put down that their registered address are at post offices, UPS, and FedEx offices. It don't think it has anything to do with where the ballots were mailed to or from. When you register to vote, your name and address becomes public record. I think this is what is being looked at.

Ok, so it’s sinful individuals and is entirely random. Then why care if the numbers remain low? That’s just random noise fraud on the small scale, same as any election.

 

[Houseman]

Ok, so it’s sinful individuals and is entirely random. Then why care if the numbers remain low? That’s just random noise fraud on the small scale, same as any election.

The guy in the tweet said that he found "over a thousand" from just a partial review of the state. A full review would assuredly uncover more. Trump lost the state by about 10,000. Depending on how much is found, if all those fake people voting from invalid addresses were thrown out, it could potentially win Trump the state.

And it might not be individuals, it might be someone or a group of people intentionally fabricating multiple ballots or multiple fake people. It doesn't really matter, though. Only legal votes should matter.

Also, this again seems like a double-standard when it comes to voting:
"You can't require photo ID to vote! That's voter suppression! A small number of poorest people won't be able to vote! Voting is sacred and so important!"
"Eh, it's only a small amount of fraud, who cares?"

 

[Revnak]

The guy in the tweet said that he found "over a thousand" from just a partial review of the state. A full review would assuredly uncover more. Trump lost the state by about 10,000. Depending on how much is found, if all those fake people voting from invalid addresses were thrown out, it could potentially win Trump the state.

Historically there’s never been that significant of a difference between the distribution of fraudulent and normal ballots, and you’ve no evidence those ballots are fraudulent as a whole, just suspicious from your understanding that is quite likely wrong.

And it might not be individuals, it might be someone or a group of people intentionally fabricating multiple ballots or multiple fake people. It doesn't really matter, though. Only legal votes should matter.

Which would be absurd in this case for previously stated reasons. You can’t claim they could be random bad actors then double back to it being a conspiracy.

Also, this again seems like a double-standard when it comes to voting:
"You can't require photo ID to vote! That's voter suppression! A small number of poorest people won't be able to vote! Voting is sacred and so important!"
"Eh, it's only a small amount of fraud, who cares?"

Cry more, then introduce universal national ID with actual security rather than fucking SSN. Then I’ll fucking talk.

 

[Houseman]

Historically there’s never been that significant of a difference between the distribution of fraudulent and normal ballots, and you’ve no evidence those ballots are fraudulent as a whole, just suspicious from your understanding that is quite likely wrong.

True. This election is, however, unprecedented when it comes to the number of absentee/mail-in votes. If fraud is expected to be a stable percentage, that should still lead to a bigger number of total fraudulent votes. Apparently there were over a million this year, compared to 200K last election. 2% of a million would be enough to flip the state.

2% was the number of rejected mail-in ballots in Georgia last election. This year that number was .3%. "Rejected" here does not necessarily mean "because of fraud", however.

It would be also interesting to see the number of rejected ballots in other states vs these swing states.

You can’t claim they could be random bad actors then double back to it being a conspiracy.

Doesn't really matter whether it is or it isn't. Any fraudulent vote should be thrown out, whether it's from a group of people working together or an individual bad actor.

 

[Revnak]

True. This election is, however, unprecedented when it comes to the number of absentee/mail-in votes. If fraud is expected to be a stable percentage, that should still lead to a bigger number of total fraudulent votes. Apparently there were over a million this year, compared to 200K last election. 2% of a million would be enough to flip the state.

2% was the number of rejected mail-in ballots in Georgia last election. This year that number was .3%. "Rejected" here does not necessarily mean "because of fraud", however.

Could be that the increase in mail-in population shifted it away from a type more likely to be rejected, and in general rules were changed to be more permissive in light of the pandemic

Doesn't really matter whether it is or it isn't. Any fraudulent vote should be thrown out, whether it's from a group of people working together or an individual bad actor.

Your conclusion makes no sense if it’s not a conspiracy and your argument makes no sense if it is, so hedge your bets. Genius realpolitik.

 

[Houseman]

Could be that the increase in mail-in population shifted it away from a type more likely to be rejected, and in general rules were changed to be more permissive in light of the pandemic

Could be. We'll see. That guy on twitter said he was going to reveal all the info on Monday.

Personally, I want Trump to win again because I think it would be funny.

Your conclusion makes no sense if it’s not a conspiracy and your argument makes no sense if it is, so hedge your bets. Genius realpolitik.

Okay, it's a conspiracy. People worked together to create fake people living at take addresses and forged signatures. Either that or there was electronic meddling with the machines. Or both.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Jesus Christ, why do you people insist on feeding the right-wing troll squad. Dwarven and Iron never do more than post alt-right conspiracy bullshit and refuse to concede when it's pointed out how many ways its wrong, Houseman does the same while also mistaking strawmanning and nitpicking for debate (while also having the mother of all hangups that he isn't allowed to bring up an event from this site's history to have a flame war over, and he doesn't get tired of bringing it up), and Tstorm just calls anybody who doesn't match his beliefs a liar without actually stating what in particular their lying about or posting proof of his claims.

What is wrong with all of you that you can spend 100 PAGES engaging with this bullshit. They aren't hiding it, they're proud that they're only here to waste the time of everybody involved and cause as much frustration as possible.

Oh right those "Alt-right" conspiracies actually reported by a number of news sites I linked to reality is the conspiracy guys clearly.

Yeh no, didn't we have this suggestion many pages back of actually discussing things and not just trying to use smears to win arguments by telling people to ignore the "Monsters" in the corner or whatever? Because seems to me people aren't very willing to engage with actual points.

Hell Iron posted a link showing a site where any Trump donors info is visible.

There's things like this

Trump administration ‘blacklist’ pushed by ex-Obama spokesman is panned

A former spokesman for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has been touting an apparent attempt to blacklist allies and staffers of President Trump and his administration, drawing criticism …

nypost.com

Luckily Biden is apparently refusing to play this game.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Did she say that?

No, it's the action people have been happily taking on twitter or trying to take though.

Where the hell are you getting all of this from? None of it's in the original statement, and none of it has been expressed by anybody here. It's pure fever dream.



OK, this line has been repeated so many times now.

Every election in history will have some minor incidence of fraud. Every election official/ expert knows this and it's so obvious as to not be worth repeating.

But we're currently in a discussion about whether there was widespread, significant fraud of the level necessary to flip a state, or an entire election.

Every statement has to be seen in that context. When an official says "there is no fraud", or "there's been zero fraud", there is the implicit addition: "...of any relevant or significant scale". Because... that's what they were asked about.

That should be obvious, honestly, because a couple dozen fraudulent ballots, having no impact on the outcome, is not relevant to the discussion we're having. It's a bit like how someone might say there's been "no violence" at a peaceful protest, because it's not relevant to mention that some twat hit his mate outside the kebab shop at the same time.

Guess you've not been paying attention to the pushes on twitter and attempts to create lists of Trump voters lol.

Also the statements being pushed was there "Wasn't Any fraud at all". That is a LIE. Fraud is still fraud and again pushing a claim that denies reality then trying to stretch the meaning of terms to claim it's fine is disingenuous at best. You can happily say there likely wasn't widespread organised fraud but not pretend there was 0 fraud at all.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

No, it's the action people have been happily taking on twitter or trying to take though.

Oh, so you're bullshitting your fantasy persecution complex.

 

[Revnak]

Could be. We'll see. That guy on twitter said he was going to reveal all the info on Monday.

I trust it will be as meaningless as these early accusations

Personally, I want Trump to win again because I think it would be funny.

Lol ebic meme.

Okay, it's a conspiracy. People worked together to create fake people living at take addresses and forged signatures. Either that or there was electronic meddling with the machines. Or both.

Then why choose a post office rather than random addresses or PO Boxes?

 

[Revnak]

Also the statements being pushed was there "Wasn't Any fraud at all". That is a LIE. Fraud is still fraud and again pushing a claim that denies reality then trying to stretch the meaning of terms to claim it's fine is disingenuous at best. You can happily say there likely wasn't widespread organised fraud but not pretend there was 0 fraud at all.

The Tory obsession with being technically correct under some specific and arbitrary set of standards is a beautiful thing.

 

[SilentPony]

It certainly doesn't help that lawyers are standing up at press conferences and saying that they have evidence and are bringing it in front of judges.

Also:


Should I make my own topic and just keep posting "election fraud" "news"?

i wouldn't bother, because they're not real cases. Of the 36 cases filed by Trump, the Trump for President Inc, or the Trump campaign i think the current count is 24 have been dismissed, denied or withdrawn due to lack of evidence. Lawyers can truly bark and howl all they want at press conferences about evidence, but when in a court room facing perjury charges and disbarment they lawyers crumple like paper tiger. Even Rudy "Melting Face" Giuliani had to admit before judge, in court, that his case of fraud in Pennsylvania wasn't a fraud case, and he withdrew something like 20 pages of falsified evidence to avoid punishment. The saving grace of the Trump cultists is they're actually fuck ups who are really really bad at their jobs. Trump doesn't appeal to the competent, or at the very least certainly doesn't hire them.

 

[Agema]

Truth be told, I'm seeing arguments all over the place. Examples;

Maybe, but the basic facts are what they are.

The most basic fact is that manufacturing jobs improved under Trump to approximately mid-2019. That is definitely good (assuming more jobs in manufacturing are good, which we'll take as an a priori for convenience). But we can also apply other context: how good was job creation compared to other situations, what was the job total like compared to the past, and what was the hope for job creation?

So the baseline is a positive for Trump, as one can opine the obvious plus that manufacturing jobs increased 2017 to 2019 under his presidency. But what about context? Manufacturing jobs were still well below the pre-crash 2008 levels, and much further below 2000. That's a negative. Net job creation was similar to the preceding years under Obama 2014-2016. That's neither good nor bad, really. And finally, what did Trump say was going to happen with manufacturing? It's not like he gave a precise figure, but the implication of restoring manufacturing jobs that had gone most reasonably means manufacturing employment something like 2008, 2000, etc. In which case he either failed or had not yet achieved his aim, depending on how kind you want to be - but a negative either way. Although even then, it might have local variability. Ohio might restore manufacturing employment to 2008 levels and think Trump met his word, but Pennsylvania didn't and thinks he's a liar.

So the same basic facts can be spun in all sorts of ways, and all of them are reasonably true and in that underlying sense consistent (despite the superficial headline differences) because it all depends on how they have framed the argument. But it's the reader's job to be skeptical of the argument, and as long as they have access to the basic facts, they can make their own minds up.

The problem I have with a lot of alternative media is that it is on average far worse at conveying the facts, either through error or omission. In denying access to facts, they deny the reader the ability to criticise the opinion.

 

[Agema]

Out of a selection apparently 500 strong they found a few doubles and one triple? That’s... absurdly mathematically possible that’s honestly not weird.

A lot of people have trouble understanding random distribution if they are not taught it. It's quite counterintuitive.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Lots of people’s only mailing address is going to be a PO box or an apartment upstairs from a shop in a commercially zoned area, none of that is conclusive

Look assuming the claim is true and they have found such evidence.

PO Boxes, UPS and FED-ex addresses are not normally registered voting addresses. You might be able to ask for things to be sent there but I'd say they'd be different to what you'd register as your residence address. You'd also likely still have you address as your address and some system there to get post because generally PO boxes, UPS boxes and Fed Ex boxes actually cost money so most residences should have their own way of dealing with mail even if it's above a shop or something.

Now to give you a better argument:

We don't know is states allow a separate residence and correspondence address which could be why people registered PO boxes as their address.
People are sometimes dumb and so put down the PO box address for both residential address and correspondence address if such options were there.
People worried about claims of issues with post or who have had issues with the post in the past had said boxes set up to make it less likely things went missing.

It's still worth looking into but plenty of ways it could be nothing.

 

[SilentPony]

If you guys want to read about how hysterically incompetent the Trump lawsuits are, give Judge Brann's dismissal a read, its fantastic:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/politics/pennsylvania-trump-lawsuit-dismissal/index.html

Basically without evidence, and sighting anonymous hearsay of hearsay Trump's people tried to dismiss millions of votes because they were for Biden, and not Trump. And maybe they thought it would work? Personally I think this whole song and dance is for getting more money from the cultists who don't really understand the legal system.

 

[Revnak]

Look assuming the claim is true and they have found such evidence.

PO Boxes, UPS and FED-ex addresses are not normally registered voting addresses. You might be able to ask for things to be sent there but I'd say they'd be different to what you'd register as your residence address. You'd also likely still have you address as your address and some system there to get post because generally PO boxes, UPS boxes and Fed Ex boxes actually cost money so most residences should have their own way of dealing with mail even if it's above a shop or something.

Lots of people don’t have legal home addresses but do have mailing addresses. For example, me, at many times when living with family.

Now to give you a better argument:

We don't know is states allow a separate residence and correspondence address which could be why people registered PO boxes as their address.
People are sometimes dumb and so put down the PO box address for both residential address and correspondence address if such options were there.
People worried about claims of issues with post or who have had issues with the post in the past had said boxes set up to make it less likely things went missing.

It's still worth looking into but plenty of ways it could be nothing.

All this is true and is more reason not to throw the ballots out without thorough investigation that there isn’t time for by the rules of US elections.

 

[Revnak]

A lot of people have trouble understanding random distribution if they are not taught it. It's quite counterintuitive.

Can confirm, am math man