Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

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Iron

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is anyone else scared about Nevada. It's small but we need every electoral college but we get.
Nevada can flip, covid lockdowns destroyed Las Vegas.

holy shit if Biden gets WI then it's thanks to JoJo taking 1.5% of the vote
 
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Dreiko

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Can this please be one of the lessons learned? You will not culture war Republicans out of being Republicans.
Is that perhaps due to a lot of 2016 republicans quitting the party, so out of those remaining more would be inclined to vote for trump but it's actually out of a smaller group of voters?

I mean, I imagine if you're still a republican in 2020 you're likely fine with trump or you woulda quit the party whereas in 2016 people hadn't had the chance to get out of the party or weren't expecting what they got and saw him for being someone else.
 

Agema

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Is that perhaps due to a lot of 2016 republicans quitting the party, so out of those remaining more would be inclined to vote for trump but it's actually out of a smaller group of voters?
Very possibly. The number of registered Republicans is now much lower than the number of registered Democrats, in large part because a lot of conservatives (who still tend to vote Republican) have switched their official registration to independent.
 

dreng3

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Very possibly. The number of registered Republicans is now much lower than the number of registered Democrats, in large part because a lot of conservatives (who still tend to vote Republican) have switched their official registration to independent.
And despite that it is still such a close race. This was supposed to be an upset, with one of the largest numbers of participating voters it seems to have entirely dismissed then notion that the only thing getting Trump elected was some sort of cult of personality. Regarding 2016 the theory was that low turnout on the democrat side, combined with the more fanatical members of the republican voter-base got Trump elected.
But now we see that he can muster a number of supporters large enough to make it a close race even with the increased participation.
 

Dreiko

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And despite that it is still such a close race. This was supposed to be an upset, with one of the largest numbers of participating voters it seems to have entirely dismissed then notion that the only thing getting Trump elected was some sort of cult of personality. Regarding 2016 the theory was that low turnout on the democrat side, combined with the more fanatical members of the republican voter-base got Trump elected.
But now we see that he can muster a number of supporters large enough to make it a close race even with the increased participation.
I think what is getting him elected is actually whatever the reverse of a cult of personality is, basically a cult of disliking the mainstream democrats enough where you'd even vote for Trump.

I feel it too but I control my lizard brain and vote for policies and not feelings and I'm a life-long leftie with a socialist upbringing so someone more ideologically centrist would be many times more tempted than even that.
 

Iron

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I think what is getting him elected is actually whatever the reverse of a cult of personality is, basically a cult of disliking the mainstream democrats enough where you'd even vote for Trump.

I feel it too but I control my lizard brain and vote for policies and not feelings and I'm a life-long leftie with a socialist upbringing so someone more ideologically centrist would be many times more tempted than even that.
On both sides. An effect of the polarization of current American politics since 2012 is that people vote against the other side and not for their candidates. I blame wall-street.
 

Dreiko

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On both sides. An effect of the polarization of current American politics since 2012 is that people vote against the other side and not for their candidates. I blame wall-street.
No man, I'm on the left side and I dislike the establishment democrats on a personality and character level way more than the republicans out of whom I have no expectations to begin with. It's the whole "you were supposed to unite the force Anakin, not tear it apart!" thing over and over again.

I still voted for em though cause on a policy level I agree with them way more. Doesn't make me stop disliking them one bit. It's simplistic to say that this is about tribalism and it doesn't really fit.
 

dreng3

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On both sides. An effect of the polarization of current American politics since 2012 is that people vote against the other side and not for their candidates. I blame wall-street.
I honestly think that democrats tend to be more introspective when it comes to both policy and candidates. But of course the proof isn't overwhelming. Democrats do tend to attract more academics, whom I suspect contemplates policy more but that might be bias. And Republicans still elected to vote for Trump following the access hollywood tape instead of either voting third party, abstaining, or going for Hillary, which seems to indicate a completely uncritical approach to the candidate.
 

gorfias

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My daughter had dinner with us last night and said she could not imagine Mitch McConnell winning as "everyone" hates him.
He won. Early on, his opponent was actually winning. Nope.
Oy.
1604489571431.png

I honestly think that democrats tend to be more introspective when it comes to both policy and candidates. But of course the proof isn't overwhelming. Democrats do tend to attract more academics, whom I suspect contemplates policy more but that might be bias. And Republicans still elected to vote for Trump following the access hollywood tape instead of either voting third party, abstaining, or going for Hillary, which seems to indicate a completely uncritical approach to the candidate.
I begged people in another forum to post positive things about their candidate. I posted things like Trump's Platinum plan to aid struggling black communities. How his Covid response, though I think an over reach and should have been more like Sweden's, was terrific. The hospital ships. The respirators. Etc. No one took the bait on posting positive things about Biden. I do not recall a single pro-Biden thing posted. It was all vicious, almost violent insults about Trump and worse, his supporters. Being POTUS and our national leader, putting our own nation's needs ahead of the whims of a globalist elite cabal that has taken over our legacy MSM was inherently monstrous. And so is anyone who would Make America Great Again.

In what reality should I say, "Wow. Trump had a private locker room talk and said naughty things... I better help the left sell our economy out to China in ways such as crazy new policies meant to retard our economy so that I never have Grand kids!"? In what reality would someone find that tape beyond the pale, but you just elected "Grand Pa Bad Touch?" A man supporters admit they believe, digitally raped Tara Reid?

It looks like the House will stay blue. If Biden wins, at least I will not have to continue to defend a badly flawed man (Trump).
I fear I will have to write, "I told you so" about Biden. I hope not. I hope he is better than I think he will be for the country.
 
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Dreiko

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I honestly think that democrats tend to be more introspective when it comes to both policy and candidates. But of course the proof isn't overwhelming. Democrats do tend to attract more academics, whom I suspect contemplates policy more but that might be bias. And Republicans still elected to vote for Trump following the access hollywood tape instead of either voting third party, abstaining, or going for Hillary, which seems to indicate a completely uncritical approach to the candidate.
Nah it's not that it's uncritical, it's that people genuinely didn't mind them. You assume everyone was offended but just, what, didn't analyze it and base a conclusion out of that feeling and just ignored it and voted for him despite feeling deeply offended?

No, people legit thought it was a no big deal. Guy talk. Boasting. Silliness.

It kinda was, too.
 

Agema

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My daughter had dinner with us last night and said she could not imagine Mitch McConnell winning as "everyone" hates him.
He won. Early on, his opponent was actually winning. Nope.
Well, the thing about "everyone" hating someone is that not everyone gets to vote, and a lot of people who can vote aren't voting for the specific individual but the party.

But she's right in the sense that McConnell is intensely hateable.
 

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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Well, the thing about "everyone" hating someone is that not everyone gets to vote, and a lot of people who can vote aren't voting for the specific individual but the party.

But she's right in the sense that McConnell is intensely hateable.
The thing is he's in one of those places where they would rather vote for Hitler then the opposing party. No matter how hateful he is his position is secure.
 

Agema

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Biden is now just ~1% behind Trump in Michigan, and it looks like the more pro-Democratic areas are the ones still counting whereas a lot of the pro-Republican areas are finished and declared. Looks like it is going to flip blue.
 

tstorm823

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I am, and it looks rather like Trump unless the remaining districts swing HUGELY Democratic.
Well, in case you haven't figured it out, bad things happen in Philadelphia. Those "totally not polling places" I was complaining about the other day are most of what's left to count. In pretending they were mail-in ballots to skirt election law in the state, they decided to leave them all sealed until election day, so they've got hundreds of thousands of specifically Philadelphia votes to count that were gathered in a questionably legal way. I will be relieved if Biden flips Michigan and it doesn't matter anyway, cause I don't like the idea of the entire election coming down to that pissing contest, cause if the missing votes follow existing geographic trends we're looking at a dead heat.
 
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Seanchaidh

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Well, the thing about "everyone" hating someone is that not everyone gets to vote, and a lot of people who can vote aren't voting for the specific individual but the party.

But she's right in the sense that McConnell is intensely hateable.
His opponent ran on having been a fighter pilot and not much else. American politics is intensely insulting to everyone's intelligence.
 
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Agema

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Well, in case you haven't figured it out, bad things happen in Philadelphia.
Maybe, but I prefer to not be so negative. At base, I think we should assume that they are "genuine" votes, however odd the procedure of their collection may seem. Innocent until proven guilty, and all.

I think my assessment was more misunderstanding what the figures I was looking at showed. There was a % votes counted and a results percentage: however, the thing is, I don't think the results percentage reflected all the votes counted, so there were a lot more votes to be added to the results than I thought.

In my initial assessment, there was almost no way the cities could provide enough votes to overturn Trump's lead. But possibly they really can. There's a story that suggests the Dems handed in ~1.5M postal ballots and the Republicans 550k. If it's postal ballots causing the hold-up, this suggests Trump's 700k lead might be overturned (and then some) by a 1M Biden lead from the postal ballots.

I will be relieved if Biden flips Michigan and it doesn't matter anyway, cause I don't like the idea of the entire election coming down to that pissing contest, cause if the missing votes follow existing geographic trends we're looking at a dead heat.
I agree. I think the USA would heavily benefit from a clear result, and not a load of controversy and courtroom shitshow to pile more fuel on the mutual antagonism.
 

tstorm823

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Maybe, but I prefer to not be so negative. At base, I think we should assume that they are "genuine" votes, however odd the procedure of their collection may seem. Innocent until proven guilty, and all.
I do think they are perfectly acceptable votes that should absolutely be counted regardless of the result, but I'm still going to resent a place with a recent history of election fraud deciding to write their own rules basically just to piss off the Trump campaign. They could have just as well said "sure, you can observe the election process early because we're taking extraordinary measures around the pandemic. We'll start counting and be totally transparent about the process" and everything would be excellent.
 
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