Basically why nothing will change in this country for the foreseeable future.
Politics are cancer.
Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)
- Thread starter Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)
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Basically why nothing will change in this country for the foreseeable future.
Politics are cancer.
No poll has ever said that Trump certain to lose. In 2016 or 2020. All you’re saying is that people misattribute was polls do. Like how people misattribute weather forecasts to certainties
Certain to lose no but I seem to remember in 2016 polls getting to something like a 4% chance of a Trump win.
Fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.
apnews.com
I already had a neighbor who was a person of color die because of Covid-19, she was 47 years old, and worked at a chicken restaurant.
Trump threatens to fire Fauci in rift with disease expert
OPA-LOCKA, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump is suggesting that he will fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after Tuesday’s election, as his rift with the nation’s top infectious disease expert widens while the nation sees its most alarming outbreak of the coronavirus since the spring.
apnews.com
I already had a neighbor who was a person of color die because of Covid-19, she was 47 years old, and worked at a chicken restaurant.
Last time polls gave him 15 to 20% chance to win
This time it’s 10 to 15%
Is you’re definition of ‘certain’ way different from mine?
They legit did a SNL skit about this on the weekend
But, Gregar, he’s the one giving Trump all the bad advice. He killed all those peopleFuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.
Trump threatens to fire Fauci in rift with disease expert
OPA-LOCKA, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump is suggesting that he will fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after Tuesday’s election, as his rift with the nation’s top infectious disease expert widens while the nation sees its most alarming outbreak of the coronavirus since the spring.
I already had a neighbor who was a person of color die because of Covid-19, she was 47 years old, and worked at a chicken restaurant.
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It sounds like the most likely scenario is that Trump will initially seems like he's just about eking a victory a la 2016, he'll declare himself the winner and will push for counting to stop because the last vote counted will heavily skew democrats. This is where things will get messy, it's possible that swing state that have republican in control will stop counting the vote and democrat will have to push for the vote to finish. This will probably end up in front of supreme court and there's very real chance that republican justice will find some crazy rational for why it's totally okay to stop counting vote. From then on I have no idea what happens, I'm just glad I don't live in the US.
Even if the vote clearly show Biden winning, does Trump seems like the kind of person to just say "Yup, I lost"? Do his supporter seems like the kind of people who will just agree with that? Some of them literally believe he's some sort of maverick stopping cabal of pedophile secretly ruling the world (although mysteriously in a way that never make the news).
Even if the vote clearly show Biden winning, does Trump seems like the kind of person to just say "Yup, I lost"? Do his supporter seems like the kind of people who will just agree with that? Some of them literally believe he's some sort of maverick stopping cabal of pedophile secretly ruling the world (although mysteriously in a way that never make the news).
0% according to computer scientists 1 month before the last election.
Less than 1% with 4 days until the election from Princeton
The man who predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2012 has said who will win on Tuesday
The Princeton Election Consortium found Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes across the country and only 270 are needed to win
www.independent.co.uk
In your own link, most people did NOT agree with this one group. A few aggregators agreed with Princeton, a lot with NYT, some were higher with 538. Would you like to have a guess what the aggregate of the aggregators might be?0% according to computer scientists 1 month before the last election.
Less than 1% with 4 days until the election from Princeton
The man who predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2012 has said who will win on Tuesday
The Princeton Election Consortium found Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes across the country and only 270 are needed to win
and again this is the issue with polls.
when people good saying "Oh the polls say Biden is ahead" which ones? There's plenty of different ones at this stage and you know the funniest thing? I'd expect the people hating Trump to be the ones pushing the polls being wrong because the idea of a some what likely win makes people feel more complacent and not needing to actually grit their teeth and vote Biden which impacts turnout.
I'm pretty sure there has been about 10 polls in 2 days. And one was positive for Trump. But it was for Iowa. And Selzar. So VERY interesting.
Even if you aggregate, its hard to keep up
Trump can claim what he likes, but it's pretty much inconceivable any count will be stopped before a "first run" is completed. The USA is not a banana republic.
They might successfully challenge recounts in close races. The other thing they could try to do is knock out some votes by identifying procedural irregularities.
Are we relying on the integrity of the heavily-partisan Supreme Court to make sure of that?
538 put Trump at 30% just before the election in 2016 with a drastic poll swing in the last few weeks in Trumps favor.
Apparently there were a lot fewer state polls in 2016 then there are this year and they stopped a bit earlier as well, whereas there were still polls releasing up through yesterday(Monday the 2nd) this cycle. Pollsters have been trying to correct for their 2016 miss. We'll know soon enough how well they did but 2018 was fairly on the mark with the congressional elections.
Right now it's 10% for Trump to win.......after months of stable polling with very little variation in the aggregate.
Neither is a no-win scenario, but his situation in 2016 was far more in Trumps favor and he barely scraped a victory by a 70K margin across 3 states. That's significantly less then 1% per state. Against Hillary, not in a recession he presided over and not 230K dead into a pandemic he also presided over.
Trump hit a perfect storm in 2016 in his favor. In 2020, the storm is blowing in his face.
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Since no one else to say anything about it,
Voter suppression is being talked about a bit particularly with mail delays and the argument going on in Texas right now where the Republicans wanted to throw away 10,000 votes (luckily they failed, with the all Republican Texas Supreme Court rejecting the demand twice). How much do you guys think this is can affect the election?
edit forgot the link
Voter suppression is being talked about a bit particularly with mail delays and the argument going on in Texas right now where the Republicans wanted to throw away 10,000 votes (luckily they failed, with the all Republican Texas Supreme Court rejecting the demand twice). How much do you guys think this is can affect the election?
edit forgot the link
Trump has one thing with Islamic terrorism happening in France right now may push some fear mongers to vote for Trump. It's a minor thing in the grand scheme but it's one thing that could help him.
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You know who has authority to do that? Congress (and the only relevant limit on counting the vote they've set is a deadline for determining the final slate of electors, one week prior to the electoral college vote) and the States. How Trump's election is processed is in no way something Trump has authority over. He does get about a month to lawyer up and challenge as many state elections as he wants, though.
As opposed to the people linking polls, instead I'm going to link prediction markets:
PredictIt
www.predictit.org
PredictIt is predicting a 290/248 split in favor of Biden, but with several states in in 50-70 range which should be seen as fairly uncertain. Overall Biden winning sits at $0.65 and Trump winning at $0.43.
Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?
The aggregate of 754 Metaculus community forecasters was 1% on Feb 14, 2024.
www.metaculus.com
Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?
The aggregate of 2185 Metaculus community forecasters was 15% on Feb 14, 2024.
www.metaculus.com
Metaculus has Trump being President the day after inauguration running at 14%, but also has one of Trump winning the election at 7% (though that question presumes timely results, which may be unlikely).
It isn't up to the Supreme Court, initially.
This is actually a strength of the Electoral College, in this case: the fed does not run the federal election. The states do. Trump has no power to stop states' count of their own votes. He can sue, as Bush did in 2000, over specfic procedural issues; he cannot simply tell states to stop their count.
Every state has its own supreme court, many of those have been packed with republican judge.
So far I'm going to assume Trump will get a second term. Too much can go wrong and the deck is inherently stacked against Biden.
-Trump can lose the election, but win the presidency due to the electoral college overruling the American electorate if Trump wins with incredibly slim margins in some random states
- The Republican voter suppression can deliver Trump these very tight margins in the swing states
-The armed Trump cultists employing voter intimidation can deliver Trump these very tight margins in the swing state
-If Trump loses both the popular and the electoral vote he and the court he stacked in his favor can suspend the election and just declare Trump the victor due to ''fraud''
-If Trump fails with the courts but drags out the vote then it may be the House which decides the president, but despite the Democrats having a majority there this vote would be done by states, not by the number of seats which means the Republicans have a majority there too.
Despite his strong position in the polls Biden only has a very narrow set of conditions for him to become president. Every single thing that can go right must go right for Biden to be president. He must win the election, he must win the election and win specifically in the right locations, he must win by such strong margins Trump can't suspend democracy due to ''fraud'', the Republican packed court must place country over party and the vote must not be taken by the house where the Republicans have a majority only by a technicality.
Trump in contrast has far more options to snatch a victory and fortunately for such an unpopular president pretty much all of those options place a lesser importance on the will of the people. He can win by the skin of his teeth in the electoral collage which will then overrule the American people, he can win through the courts he stacked in his favor or the house where an archaic rule cancels out the Democrat majority.
Have fun America.
-Trump can lose the election, but win the presidency due to the electoral college overruling the American electorate if Trump wins with incredibly slim margins in some random states
- The Republican voter suppression can deliver Trump these very tight margins in the swing states
-The armed Trump cultists employing voter intimidation can deliver Trump these very tight margins in the swing state
-If Trump loses both the popular and the electoral vote he and the court he stacked in his favor can suspend the election and just declare Trump the victor due to ''fraud''
-If Trump fails with the courts but drags out the vote then it may be the House which decides the president, but despite the Democrats having a majority there this vote would be done by states, not by the number of seats which means the Republicans have a majority there too.
Despite his strong position in the polls Biden only has a very narrow set of conditions for him to become president. Every single thing that can go right must go right for Biden to be president. He must win the election, he must win the election and win specifically in the right locations, he must win by such strong margins Trump can't suspend democracy due to ''fraud'', the Republican packed court must place country over party and the vote must not be taken by the house where the Republicans have a majority only by a technicality.
Trump in contrast has far more options to snatch a victory and fortunately for such an unpopular president pretty much all of those options place a lesser importance on the will of the people. He can win by the skin of his teeth in the electoral collage which will then overrule the American people, he can win through the courts he stacked in his favor or the house where an archaic rule cancels out the Democrat majority.
Have fun America.
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