Basically why nothing will change in this country for the foreseeable future.
Politics are cancer.
No poll has ever said that Trump certain to lose. In 2016 or 2020. All you’re saying is that people misattribute was polls do. Like how people misattribute weather forecasts to certaintiesAs I said different polls say different things and I could probably go through a lot of the "Trump is certain to lose polls" and find faults like say they only bothered to sample in the Portland arts area districts or it was all done via twitter link sharing or some other such stuff.
As I said I doubt it will be a landslide either way and don't take the polls as gospel
Certain to lose no but I seem to remember in 2016 polls getting to something like a 4% chance of a Trump win.No poll has ever said that Trump certain to lose. In 2016 or 2020. All you’re saying is that people misattribute was polls do. Like how people misattribute weather forecasts to certainties
Last time polls gave him 15 to 20% chance to winCertain to lose no but I seem to remember in 2016 polls getting to something like a 4% chance of a Trump win.
But, Gregar, he’s the one giving Trump all the bad advice. He killed all those peopleFuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.
Trump threatens to fire Fauci in rift with disease expert
OPA-LOCKA, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump is suggesting that he will fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after Tuesday’s election, as his rift with the nation’s top infectious disease expert widens while the nation sees its most alarming outbreak of the coronavirus since the spring.apnews.com
I already had a neighbor who was a person of color die because of Covid-19, she was 47 years old, and worked at a chicken restaurant.
View attachment 1374
0% according to computer scientists 1 month before the last election.Last time polls gave him 15 to 20% chance to win
This time it’s 10 to 15%
Is you’re definition of ‘certain’ way different from mine?
They legit did a SNL skit about this on the weekend
In your own link, most people did NOT agree with this one group. A few aggregators agreed with Princeton, a lot with NYT, some were higher with 538. Would you like to have a guess what the aggregate of the aggregators might be?0% according to computer scientists 1 month before the last election.
Less than 1% with 4 days until the election from Princeton
The man who predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2012 has said who will win on Tuesday
The Princeton Election Consortium found Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes across the country and only 270 are needed to winwww.independent.co.uk
and again this is the issue with polls.In your own link, most people did NOT agree with this one group. A few aggregators agreed with Princeton, a lot with NYT, some were higher with 538. Would you like to have a guess what the aggregate of the aggregators might be?
I'm pretty sure there has been about 10 polls in 2 days. And one was positive for Trump. But it was for Iowa. And Selzar. So VERY interesting.and again this is the issue with polls.
when people good saying "Oh the polls say Biden is ahead" which ones? There's plenty of different ones at this stage and you know the funniest thing? I'd expect the people hating Trump to be the ones pushing the polls being wrong because the idea of a some what likely win makes people feel more complacent and not needing to actually grit their teeth and vote Biden which impacts turnout.
Trump can claim what he likes, but it's pretty much inconceivable any count will be stopped before a "first run" is completed. The USA is not a banana republic.It sounds like the most likely scenario is that Trump will initially seems like he's just about eking a victory a la 2016, he'll declare himself the winner and will push for counting to stop because the last vote counted will heavily skew democrats. This is where things will get messy, it's possible that swing state that have republican in control will stop counting the vote and democrat will have to push for the vote to finish.
Are we relying on the integrity of the heavily-partisan Supreme Court to make sure of that?Trump can claim what he likes, but it's pretty much inconceivable any count will be stopped before a "first run" is completed. The USA is not a banana republic.
538 put Trump at 30% just before the election in 2016 with a drastic poll swing in the last few weeks in Trumps favor.Last time polls gave him 15 to 20% chance to win
This time it’s 10 to 15%
Is you’re definition of ‘certain’ way different from mine?
They legit did a SNL skit about this on the weekend
Trump has one thing with Islamic terrorism happening in France right now may push some fear mongers to vote for Trump. It's a minor thing in the grand scheme but it's one thing that could help him.538 put Trump at 30% just before the election in 2016 with a drastic poll swing in the last few weeks in Trumps favor.
Apparently there were a lot fewer state polls in 2016 then there are this year and they stopped a bit earlier as well, whereas there were still polls releasing up through yesterday(Monday the 2nd) this cycle. Pollsters have been trying to correct for their 2016 miss. We'll know soon enough how well they did but 2018 was fairly on the mark with the congressional elections.
Right now it's 10% for Trump to win.......after months of stable polling with very little variation in the aggregate.
Neither is a no-win scenario, but his situation in 2016 was far more in Trumps favor and he barely scraped a victory by a 70K margin across 3 states. That's significantly less then 1% per state. Against Hillary, not in a recession he presided over and not 230K dead into a pandemic he also presided over.
Trump hit a perfect storm in 2016 in his favor. In 2020, the storm is blowing in his face.
You know who has authority to do that? Congress (and the only relevant limit on counting the vote they've set is a deadline for determining the final slate of electors, one week prior to the electoral college vote) and the States. How Trump's election is processed is in no way something Trump has authority over. He does get about a month to lawyer up and challenge as many state elections as he wants, though.*(Presuming Trump doesn't follow through with his despicable threat to stop all counting after 3rd November, regardless of whether ballots were posted on time or not).
It isn't up to the Supreme Court, initially.Are we relying on the integrity of the heavily-partisan Supreme Court to make sure of that?
Every state has its own supreme court, many of those have been packed with republican judge.It isn't up to the Supreme Court, initially.
This is actually a strength of the Electoral College, in this case: the fed does not run the federal election. The states do. Trump has no power to stop states' count of their own votes. He can sue, as Bush did in 2000, over specfic procedural issues; he cannot simply tell states to stop their count.