Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

[Houseman]

Obama didn't act like Trump, saying stupid inflammatory shit daily. When the POTUS does that, it's news, which journalists will report on.
Unless you want to quantify it with some actual data, this is just your shitty misinformed opinion.

• #4,505

 

[Burnhardt]

More evidence:

You realise Trump, under your terms at least, committed voter fraud himself right?

He initially registered to vote in Florida, which under Florida's election laws requires an in-state address, using the White House as his address. He later changed his address to his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Problem is he can't do this. An agreement he signed back in 1993 in order to allow it to operate as a for-profit resort, prevents it from being used as a private residence or homestead, as no one can stay for more than 'three non-consecutive seven day periods'. He's basically used an address which he can't even legally stay at for more a month in any given year.

Trump tried to vote with wrong address while railing against voter fraud

Records reviewed by the Post found the president had to resubmit his application, despite railing against the vote by mail process

www.theguardian.com

Mar-a-Lago neighbors say Trump can’t live there after White House

President signed 1993 agreement with the town that says he cannot live at the club for more than three nonconsecutive weeks in a year

www.theguardian.com

 

[Agema]

"We have so much evidence! All you have is: [opinion] [opinion] [opinion] [opinion]"

Yes, correct: the standard of evidence available in the two cases is clearly very different indeed.

You're shooting yourself in the foot if resorting to personal attacks against a witness is your go-to.

That witness lacks credibility, as various obviously untrue or utterly unjustified statements she made in the hearing suggest.

 

[Agema]

I'm saying that people on this site, who hate Trump, don't hate Obama for the same crimes.

Piling up false equivalences is not a useful way to argue, not least because it exposes the desperation and emptiness of your position.

 

[Trunkage]

• #4,505

You're going to have to explain to us why this article shows 'Obama saying stupid inflammatory shit daily'

 

[Phoenixmgs]

My primary point with all this began with an accusation about media bias.
Whether or not people on this board hated Obama like they hated Trump is of secondary importance to that. The media didn't make criticism of Obama headline news every day during his presidency, like they're doing with Trump. It's a propaganda effort instead of journalism.

There was plenty to know about Trump well before he got into politics that had nothing to do with media bias.

 

[Agema]

You're going to have to explain to us why this article shows 'Obama saying stupid inflammatory shit daily'

Don't you get it, man? Obama once called Kanye West a "jackass". Therefore there's literally no difference whatsoever between him and the daily mounds of public shit-flinging Trump does every day. We should also start executing people for traffic violations, because they are literally every bit as much lawbreakers as mass murderers.

 

[Thaluikhain]

We should also start executing people for traffic violations, because they are literally every bit as much lawbreakers as mass murderers.

Stats are intentionally hard to come by, but I think they do kill more people for traffic violations than execute mass murderers, though the former aren't official executions.

 

[Cheetodust]

There was plenty to know about Trump well before he got into politics that had nothing to do with media bias.

Here's the thing. I first became aware of Donald Trump in my mid teens as a shitty property tycoon and caricature of corrupt businessmen. So like mid 00's even in ireland, trump was a famous scumbag.

 

[Vicofthevoid]

Here's the thing. I first became aware of Donald Trump in my mid teens as a shitty property tycoon and caricature of corrupt businessmen. So like mid 00's even in ireland, trump was a famous scumbag.

I'm almost 40 and grew up in western New York. New Yorkers have known he was a shitbag for decades, and a lot of us tried to warn people, but were written off as "dumb yankee lib'ruls", I gave up trying to get the willfully blind to see reality years ago.

Coincidentally, before someone tries to copypasta the tweets of stupid into this thread, Brad Raffensperger doesn't have a brother, so the moron in chief is yelling about imaginary people. Also the 'report' that he linked was written by a former professor who works for the administration now named John Lott. For those who are unfamiliar, Lott wrote a bunch of stuff on economics and gun control years back, and is famous because when he got pushback on what he'd written being innacurate, he created sock puppet personas to defend himself (look up Mary Rosh). Can't imagine why John Barron...er....David Dennison...uh, I mean donald trump would be pushing birdcage lining like that as reputable.
Just thought I'd get that in before the misinformation shows up in the thread.

 

[Avnger]

And now the news:

The link goes to this:

Simple tests for the extent of vote fraud with absentee and provisional ballots in the 2020 US presidential election

This study reports three tests measuring vote fraud in the 2020 US presidential election, although they provide inconsistent evidence. To isolate the impact of

papers.ssrn.com

A Simple Test for the Extent of Vote Fraud with Absentee Ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election: Georgia and Pennsylvania Data by John R. Lott of the US Department of Justice

Abstract:


Is the mainstream media covering this?
No?
Didn't think so.

That study has just as much statistical validity as this infamous reddit post:

In the last two seasons, Mahomes has a TD% of 8.68%. However, the league average last year was 4.8%. If you adjust his TD% to 5%, still above LA, he goes from throwing 57 TDs in his last 18 games to only 32.85. I'll be generous and give him 33.

Now, let's adjust his passer rating. It goes from 116.5 to only 104.3 by just adjusting his TD% to normally above average. Later on, I will adjust it further to take yards into account.

Next, we have to account for him passing more than league average. He has 657 pass attempts over 18 games. The LA is 35.5/game, which equals 639, around a 2.7% reduction. Mahomes also has a flukey 9.01 Y/A, which can be adjusted to 8 (still above LA) based on the league average of 7.5.

So we can estimate that over a 16 game season, his adjusted yardage is (6397.5)/1816= 4544 yards.

Now, I will adjust his passer rating again based on these 16 game stats

• 4544 yards
• 639 attempts
• 426 completions (also adjusted)

After this, his passer rating bottoms out at 96.66, which lands him squarely between Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger last year.

His final 16 game adjusted stats:

• 4544 yards / 639 ATT / 426 CMP / 66.7% CMP (same) / 33 TD / 12 INT (same) / 8 Y/A / 96.7 RATE

What does this tell us?

It tells us that Mahomes' perceived success in the league is largely inflated by unsustainable, wildly outlier stats in his 18 games as perceived elite talent. When you adjust for the future by bringing down his outlier stats, he regresses heavily to a slightly above average QB of 2018 Dak tierdom.

"If I take these numbers and make a bunch of assumptions about them, the numbers validate my assumptions!

 

[Vicofthevoid]

That study has just as much statistical credibility as this infamous reddit post:



"If I take these numbers and make a bunch of assumptions about them, the numbers validate my assumptions!

Ah, yeah, that was the 'study' I was referring to in my post, didn't realize it had already contaminated the thread.

 

[Avnger]

Ah, yeah, that was the 'study' I was referring to in my post, didn't realize it had already contaminated the thread.

Houseman seems to take his unpaid, unacknowledged role as assistant to the media intern for Trump pretty seriously.

 

[Houseman]

You realise Trump, under your terms at least, committed voter fraud himself right?

He initially registered to vote in Florida, which under Florida's election laws requires an in-state address, using the White House as his address. He later changed his address to his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Problem is he can't do this. An agreement he signed back in 1993 in order to allow it to operate as a for-profit resort, prevents it from being used as a private residence or homestead, as no one can stay for more than 'three non-consecutive seven day periods'. He's basically used an address which he can't even legally stay at for more a month in any given year.

If it's true that he registered an illegal address, then throw his and every other illegal ballot out.

Count every legal vote and only legal votes. Simple.

If you admit that his illegal vote was counted, then I guess this election isn't as safe and secure as they say, hmm?

Coincidentally, before someone tries to copypasta the tweets of stupid into this thread, Brad Raffensperger doesn't have a brother, so the moron in chief is yelling about imaginary people. Also the 'report' that he linked was written by a former professor who works for the administration now named John Lott. For those who are unfamiliar, Lott wrote a bunch of stuff on economics and gun control years back, and is famous because when he got pushback on what he'd written being innacurate, he created sock puppet personas to defend himself (look up Mary Rosh). Can't imagine why John Barron...er....David Dennison...uh, I mean donald trump would be pushing birdcage lining like that as reputable.
Just thought I'd get that in before the misinformation shows up in the thread.

It's fine, character assassination is par for the course here. People can't argue the merits of the claims themselves, so they have to attack the person instead.

 

[Kwak]

• #4,505

And the Daily Caller's shitty opinion.

 

[Houseman]

Georgia Senators are taking this seriously, why aren't you?

LIVE: Georgia State Senate Holds Meeting on 2020 Election Fraud 12/30/20


At the time of the post they're going over the midnight "ballots under the table" video, but with a new twist, we're focusing on the people clearly running the ballots over and over again.

A Missouri Senator is taking this seriously, why aren't you?

 

[Avnger]

Georgia Senators are taking this seriously, why aren't you?

A Missouri Senator is taking this seriously, why aren't you?

Because the facts don't care about their feelings

 

[Houseman]

Because the facts don't care about their feelings

It is a fact that witnesses are giving testimony, live.

 

[SilentPony]

A Missouri Senator is taking this seriously, why aren't you?

Missourian here. Senator Hawley is considered a state-wide embarrassment. He's every idiot private school douchebag who thinks he's smarter than he actually is. A good rule of thumb is if Hawley thinks something is true, assume the opposite and you're good.

 

[Hades]

Missourian here. Senator Hawley is considered a state-wide embarrassment. He's every idiot private school douchebag who thinks he's smarter than he actually is. A good rule of thumb is if Hawley thinks something is true, assume the opposite and you're good.

And yet Missouri elected him