Funny events in anti-woke world

The Rogue Wolf

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That said, there is a silver lining
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"They were supposed to cut other people's vital services, not mine!"
 

Agema

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I'm analyzing her testimony
I guess analysing badly and biasedly is still analysing of a sort, yes.

and while be interviewed about the event she suggested it wasn't rape because rape is sexy.
Given the linguistic somersaults you have performed to try to excuse things Trump has said, this sort of misrepresentation sticks out like a sore thumb. Never mind that it also demonstrates your abject hypocrisy for all the times you've pedantically criticised anyone else for not being word perfect.

She's got potential ulterior motives and a record of absurd statements to nuke her own credibility on top of the specific details of the claim that seem less than likely.
I love the way you hyperbolically write "nuke her own credibility", with no sense of context or reflection on the man she is accusing. Whatever her flaws, eccentricities, and inaccuracies, she's still more credible than Donald Trump.

Obviously, her superior credibility was critical to the case itself, with its limited evidential scope. However, you could look more widely at Trump's non-stop, decades-long dishonesty binge of fraud, cheating and lies. You appear on the one hand to be aware of this (even if as a grudging concession), and yet at the same time incapable of practically applying that to any "analysis".
 

tstorm823

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I love the way you hyperbolically write "nuke her own credibility", with no sense of context or reflection on the man she is accusing. Whatever her flaws, eccentricities, and inaccuracies, she's still more credible than Donald Trump.

Obviously, her superior credibility was critical to the case itself, with its limited evidential scope. However, you could look more widely at Trump's non-stop, decades-long dishonesty binge of fraud, cheating and lies. You appear on the one hand to be aware of this (even if as a grudging concession), and yet at the same time incapable of practically applying that to any "analysis".
In this particular instance, and I think you will agree to this, Donald Trump's credibility should be irrelevant. If someone is accused of rape, their public image should not determine the verdict, nobody is so credible as to be incapable of great crimes, nor is anyone so problematic as to be inherently guilty of crimes. Cases do get decided by these things, but they really shouldn't.

The credibility of the accuser, on the other hand, is inherent to the case. If she seems credible, that is important, and it doesn't matter if he seems like a more reliable source, it's still a credible accusation. If she doesn't seem credible, that is a mark against the accusation, and it doesn't matter if he seems like a less reliable source, that's still reason to doubt her.
 

Silvanus

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Yes, I know the drug manufacturer gets money from sources other than US insurers, I never said otherwise. But we're talking about the US system specifically. Money from premiums to insurer, insurer pays PBM, PBM pays drug company, drug company gives back discount/rebate. Sure that $700 they are handing back could be money from some guy in France but it doesn't matter. The PBM could just pay $300 to the drug company and do what they want with the $700, it's effectively the same thing.
No, this isn't how the transaction works. You're imagining an exact transfer of costs, from the member of the public onwards. That's not how insurance functions, and this entirely omits how premiums are determined.

* Insurer sets premium, according to the likely costs to itself + desired margin. If they envisage Drug A will ultimately cost them $400 if required, they set monthly premium at $100, say.

* Hundreds of millions of people pay $100pm.

* The insurer requests the PBM source the drug. Gives them $1000 per prescription, knowing the ultimate cost will be ~$400.

* PBM pays $1000. $800 comes back as rebate.

* $600 is sent onto insurer. PBM pockets $200.

So: the premium is set according to the ultimate projected cost to the insurer. Which doesn't include the rebate pocketed by the PBM, which was never with the insurer or the individual insured.
 

Agema

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In this particular instance, and I think you will agree to this, Donald Trump's credibility should be irrelevant.
Trump's credibility may be irrelevant if there are insuperable problems with the accuser's claim... but there aren't, nor even close.

Thus if the situation should come down a defamation case (which Trump unnecessarily brought on himself) based on the preponderance of evidence, there becomes a very decent chance he would lose it fair and square. Which he did: and that is okay.
 

tstorm823

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Trump's credibility may be irrelevant if there are insuperable problems with the accuser's claim... but there aren't, nor even close.
Two responses: first, in the accusation of rape, Trump's credibility should be irrelevant no matter what. Second, it seems your standards continue to slip, as we've gone from "it's not beyond reasonable doubt, it's just more than 50% chance" to "well, as long as the accusation isn't impossible".
 

Agema

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Two responses: first, in the accusation of rape, Trump's credibility should be irrelevant no matter what.
I have no idea what you think you are arguing here. Let's imagine that it can be objectively demonstrated that sexual intercourse took place between an accuser and accused. The accuser claims rape and the accused consensual sex. Assuming limited or inconclusive other evidence (of assault, other witnesses), it is extremely likely that credibility will be hugely relevant to an outcome.

Second, it seems your standards continue to slip, as we've gone from "it's not beyond reasonable doubt, it's just more than 50% chance" to "well, as long as the accusation isn't impossible".
If there is evidence (most likely objective) that sinks the accusation, credibility of the victim may therefore be moot. For instance, when the accused can prove they were not in the area at that time. This is common sense. You have provided no such evidence, or even close.

Therefore, credibility is necessarily a very big deal. We might note, for instance, that several attacks you have made on Carroll are on that. However, once you are basing arguments on the credibility of the accuser, the credibility of the accused is almost intrinsically up for examination too. At best, one again might argue that an extraordinarily unreliable witness might make the credibility of the accused irrelevant. But you need something vastly stronger than anything you've brought to the table: most importantly, you have presented no meaningful evidence of a pattern of dishonesty.
 

Chimpzy

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Alex Schultz, the company’s chief marketing officer and highest-ranking gay executive, suggested in an internal post that people seeing their queer friends and family members abused on Facebook and Instagram could lead to increased support for LGBTQ rights.
Oh, is that how it works? Injustice anywhere is a great motivator for justice everywhere?
 

tstorm823

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I have no idea what you think you are arguing here. Let's imagine that it can be objectively demonstrated that sexual intercourse took place between an accuser and accused. The accuser claims rape and the accused consensual sex. Assuming limited or inconclusive other evidence (of assault, other witnesses), it is extremely likely that credibility will be hugely relevant to an outcome.
Do you not see how degenerate that system is though? You are advocating for the exact sort of thing that splits judicial results between social classes.
If there is evidence (most likely objective) that sinks the accusation, credibility of the victim may therefore be moot. For instance, when the accused can prove they were not in the area at that time. This is common sense. You have provided no such evidence, or even close.
Again, you're asking for proof of innocence. That is saying "if the accusation isn't literally impossible, it's probably true." This is the importance of things like the empty department and the unlocked door: her tale of the events involves all and only circumstances that not only would allow for the crime to take place, but also preclude any possibility of exonerating evidence. The empty department means there's no chance of a witness to verify, the coincidentally unlocked door means Trump wouldn't need a collaborator, the clothes she preserved wouldn't prove he didn't touch her if his dna isn't there 25 years later (part of why statutes of limitations exist), she can't even say what year the event took place in that he might have an alibi. You want objective evidence to clear him, the accusation (if false) is constructed with a combination of very specific details where they make evidence impossible and very vague details when they would allow for evidence to exist. If you wanted to actively avoid evidence that your accusation is a lie, it's hard to do better than "he committed a crime that left no trace in a place we know he's been at a time we don't remember but we're certain nobody else was around." That's why it's suspicious.
However, once you are basing arguments on the credibility of the accuser, the credibility of the accused is almost intrinsically up for examination too.
It really isn't. The testimony of the accused did not create the court case, and it shouldn't be involved in ending it unless it can be validated by others. Every accused person, innocent or guilty, has a motive to claim innocence. It does not matter how trustworthy that person is, their claim to innocence is unreliable, because a guilty person in their position would be saying the same things as an innocent person. An accuser is not made inherently unreliable by the circumstances, that is why their credibility matters. That is why it is relevant the accusation came out as she's selling her book, which is not only a memoir but is also in keeping with her style, where she writes on what she sees but also inserts herself into the stories as the protagonist.

I was saying to Silvanus the other day, lies tend to generate more questions, the truth tends to fall into place, and I think there's a way that all the pieces fall into place, starting with her book. The book is "What Do We Need Men For? A Modest Proposal", in which Carroll travels the USA asking women for their stories about how terrible men are, so that she can ultimately suggest forcing all men into reeducation camps. She was a very successful advice columnist, she really built her career on other women's horror stories about men. And maybe that's what happened here...

Seriously, truly, if you've looked into this woman, watched her speak about this, considered the details of the accusation, it's just so obviously a lie. Do your song and dance denying it, but the lady is both unhinged and an unconvincing liar. It almost unreasonable to even imagine she's telling the truth after watching her talk about it, every mannerism should be sounding alarms in your brain. But what if it's a lie, but only in some ways? I imagined ways it might be half lie, like maybe that she encountered Trump, told her friends about it, made up the sex part, and then they said it was rape and it snowballed from there, but that doesn't explain why she can't put a date on it. She claims to still have the dress and witnesses who she told at the time, but nobody can remember if it was 1995 or 1996, that reeks. So in that sense, it makes more sense if the entire thing is a lie, but that just makes her evil, and leaves me unconvinced her friends would perjure themselves to support her.

But what if it's a true story, in essence, but it's someone else's? That fits perfectly. Imagine its someone else's story. Trump went to a woman's fashion store, started talking with a women there (probably a beautiful, young woman, rather than not his type, to use his words against him), asked for help picking out a present for his wife, convinced her to try things on for him, and got the staff to look the other way as you suggested he might. He tries to have sex with her, she pushes him away and leaves, and she tells her story privately in E Jean Carroll's circle, but ultimately wants to keep it private and not come forward. One of the points of suspicion around this is that Carroll came forward in 2019, but her story almost perfectly matches one told in an episode of Law and Order SVU from 2012, a show that is made by NBC where Carroll once had her own tv show. Dick Wolf, executive producer of Law and Order, was once asked where they get their ideas from, and he said they just read the New York Post, but that incident in Bergdorf Goodman doesn't match anything in the New York Post from the 2012 time frame, it matches Carroll's claims about Trump published in 2019.

Well, what if that clique of writers, including Carroll, have known the story for years and wanted to tell it, but they were protecting the anonymity of the real victim? All those puzzle pieces fall into place really cleanly. She looks like a liar cause she is one. But the lie is that its her story, which she is saying is her story because otherwise we'd all be looking for the real person who doesn't want the attention. She has to tell the story in an unproveable way because otherwise people might prove she's lying, which would again lead to a hunt for the real victim, so she (and her friends) can lie with conviction, as their motive is to protect an innocent and go after a predator. The crime would match Trump's known behavior, he's never with women actually his age, including all of his wives, both his comments and the credible accusations about him are pretty uniformly with conventionally beautiful women he already had close access to, targeting a famous writer in a public setting is not his M.O. The lie would match E Jean Carroll's writing style, she has a history of gonzo narratives, she likes to insert herself as the protagonist into nonfiction stories, and she does like to feel she's helping people with her writing.

It took a while, but I think I finally cracked this one. That's what I think the truth behind it all is.
 

XsjadoBlayde

~ just another dread messenger ~
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Is kinda weird how nobody wants to bring up Tulsi Gabbard's lifelong connection to Miami cult science of Identity, seems like the sort of uniquely unsettling curiosity ppl would want to know more about, like even a little - she ain't cut ties, distanced or denounced them, quite the opposite - what's going on? Is there a don't ask don't tell law in America for abusive cults too then?


Also seeing as the leader Chris butler continues actively removing his online presence lately, it is my civic duty to keep these photos circulating one way or another
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Witness the majesty of the billy goat neck beard travesty
 
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Agema

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Do you not see how degenerate that system is though? You are advocating for the exact sort of thing that splits judicial results between social classes.
You say this, but you don't have an answer to it, because you do it to. As you say later: "Seriously, truly, if you've looked into this woman, watched her speak about this, considered the details of the accusation, it's just so obviously a lie. Do your song and dance denying it, but the lady is both unhinged and an unconvincing liar."

If you're happy to throw around your own judgements on credibility, what are you trying to achieve by criticising other people for it?

Again, you're asking for proof of innocence. That is saying "if the accusation isn't literally impossible, it's probably true."
Obviously untrue.

For instance, my initial statement was that if you have two contradictory statements in the absence of any other information, the chance that either is right is 50%. This, we might note, would fail the balance of the evidence ("51%").

The empty department means there's no chance of a witness to verify, the coincidentally unlocked door...
...without which a crime more likely would not have occurred.

Certain circumstances exist that facilitate crimes, particularly opportunistic ones. Crimes are therefore concentrated into the points when and where those circumstances exist. Pointing out that those circumstances are less common than otherwise in order to claim that a crime did not occur is therefore hugely problematic.

The testimony of the accused did not create the court case, and it shouldn't be involved in ending it unless it can be validated by others.
This was a defamation case. It was actually about whether Donald Trump could adequately justify the heap of pejoratives he directed at Carroll as being fair speech.

Quick answer, no.

And along the way, almost as a byproduct, he therefore became an adjudicated rapist. This is fine.

Seriously, truly, if you've looked into this woman, watched her speak about this, considered the details of the accusation, it's just so obviously a lie. Do your song and dance denying it, but the lady is both unhinged and an unconvincing liar.
I'm not much interested in your prejudices, although I certainly understand why you say they may be divisive.

It took a while, but I think I finally cracked this one. That's what I think the truth behind it all is.
Yeah, whatever makes you happy. If it's true, I'm still fine with the court case outcome.
 

Phoenixmgs

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No, this isn't how the transaction works. You're imagining an exact transfer of costs, from the member of the public onwards. That's not how insurance functions, and this entirely omits how premiums are determined.

* Insurer sets premium, according to the likely costs to itself + desired margin. If they envisage Drug A will ultimately cost them $400 if required, they set monthly premium at $100, say.

* Hundreds of millions of people pay $100pm.

* The insurer requests the PBM source the drug. Gives them $1000 per prescription, knowing the ultimate cost will be ~$400.

* PBM pays $1000. $800 comes back as rebate.

* $600 is sent onto insurer. PBM pockets $200.

So: the premium is set according to the ultimate projected cost to the insurer. Which doesn't include the rebate pocketed by the PBM, which was never with the insurer or the individual insured.
It does include the rebate pocketed by the PBM because the insurer paid that.
 

crimson5pheonix

It took 6 months to read my title.
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Is kinda weird how nobody wants to bring up Tulsi Gabbard's lifelong connection to Miami cult science of Identity, seems like the sort of uniquely unsettling curiosity ppl would want to know more about, like even a little - she ain't cut ties, distanced or denounced them, quite the opposite - what's going on? Is there a don't ask don't tell law in America for abusive cults too then?


Also seeing as the leader Chris butler continues actively removing his online presence lately, it is my civic duty to keep these photos circulating one way or another
View attachment 12612
View attachment 12613
Witness the majesty of the billy goat neck beard travesty
There's a common theme around the world of not delving into a politician's cult connections. It's literally the basis for the Shinzo Abe assassination because somehow he and half the government being tied to the Moonies was news, and I bet most people don't know Trump helped the Moonies out too.
 
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XsjadoBlayde

~ just another dread messenger ~
Apr 29, 2020
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There's a common theme around the world of not delving into a politician's cult connections. It's literally the basis for the Shinzo Abe assassination because somehow he and half the government being tied to the Moonies was news, and I bet most people don't know Trump helped the Moonies out too.
Fun fact about the moonies: they've neoliberal support as well as trump, cause, umm, kinda sorta founded by


Freedom of information act not quite the freedoms talking heads had in mind, but certainly the one we need lol. (Wait, just spotted hiring submission page, brb!)