BloatedGuppy said:
chikusho said:
He takes risks to reap rewards, I guess? He acts with a goal in mind, and for him to be able to achieve that goal risks are necessary.
Well, yes. As long as we're guessing, I imagine he could be doing just about anything. Maybe he's a secret Targaryen, or The Night's King! Based on what you've seen actually take place, what are his motives? What does he stand to gain?
Don't be silly, my response was rhetorical. Littlefinger has an end goal in mind. Exactly what that is has only been hinted at (the Iron Throne), so whatever actions he takes we have to assume that it's towards achieving that goal. He's taken plenty of risks so far, and secretly giving Sansa to Roose is far less crazy than what has come before.
chikusho said:
He knows Stannis is coming to take the north and then King's landing.
Stannis has <5000 men. Stannis is trying to defend the realm against the long night. He's not going to "take King's Landing" with a force less than fraction of the size of the one he already failed to take it with.
Stannis is trying to defend the realm against the long night by become the king of Westeros. If there's any character with clear motivations, it's Stannis. What of it?
chikusho said:
By giving Sansa to Roose he gains an ally in Roose
An ally that the show establishes has no army to speak of and no power outside of that granted them by the Throne, with which the Sansa deal severs their relationship.
An ally is better than no ally. If everything goes according to Littlefingers plan, the Lannisters won't hold the throne for much longer, and by that time the severed relationship is meaningless.
chikusho said:
Also, there's nothing public about Littlefinger handing her over to Roose. Rembember, she isn't Sansa, she's Alayne, his niece, until handed over to Roose. There's noone to say how she got there.
He was walking around openly. Varys employed spies in every court in the Seven Kingdoms, that Qyburn would've inherited upon becoming spymaster. Even if there wasn't someone there in a professional capacity, the smallfolk talk. He was seen escorting her through the Riverlands as well.
Varys isn't in Kings landing anymore. Also, how do you "inherit" a secret network? Only Varys knew the identities of his spies, and his spies are probably still working for him.
Yes, he was seen escorting his niece Aleyne through the Riverlands.
chikusho said:
Finally, it's better to maybe have a friend in the Boltons than not.
Why is that better? What is the benefit of having a politically toxic friend with depleted/non-existant military strength? Particularly when you're trading the preeminent power in the realm for it?
Probably a hell of a lot of benefits, or just enough benefit for it to be worthwhile. There are plenty of resources in the north, and you need the north in order to maintain the seven kingdoms. Him giving Sansa to Roose can grant him control and influence in the area no matter which way the fight with Stannis goes. If Littlefinger wants to be King, he's going to need a warden in the North, and letting Roose work on getting the Northerners to bend the knee is a hell of a lot more convenient than conquering it later on.
chikusho said:
His authority in the north stems from the crown, and the crown is in shambles.
How is the crown in shambles? At the end of the war the Lannisters still have some 20-30K fighting men available, the Tyrells over 50K. Which is to say nothing of the Riverlands and Stormlands, all of which are under the control of Kings Landing. So the Crown is "in shambles", and somehow Roose Bolton makes an appealing alternative? How?
The crown is in shambles because they have just gone through two kings, a couple wars and lost the only person who was capable enough to steer the ship. That is, Tywin, who was also responsible for creating and maintaining the alliances after the war of the five kings. Tommen is just a boy controlled by Cersey. Cersei is in power now, and she's using all of her focus on petty vengeance. Also, the crowns main ally is conspiring against them. It doesn't matter how many soldiers they have if they aren't utilized correctly. I think Davos put it best:
https://youtu.be/fJihLGtcHwA?t=298
I mean, if way over in Braavos everyone knows that Tywin is really in charge, it's safe to assume that everyone in Westeros knows it as well.
chikusho said:
So to put it short, his authority is dwindling. Especially if he's privy to the fact that the Tyrells are also working against the crown, even though that's not explicitly stated.
The Tyrells ARE the crown.
And the Tyrells don't care about Sansa.
chikusho said:
And even if he doesn't gain an army, he needs proper authority and respect to not face resistance from the north in those preparations. Hell, possibly even more so. It's a lot easier to gather supplies and prepare for winter when people are working for you rather than when you have to force them to do so by the tip of a sword. With a Stark commanding them, he will probably face less resistance.
So he gets proper authority and respect from the smallfolk (something he has never failed to accomplish on his own) and in turn becomes a rebel faction in open defiance of the governing body of the Seven Kingdoms. And this is a good political move for him?
Roose wants to rule the north. Getting a legitimate claim on the north is a very good political move for him. Northerners don't respect the crown, but they do respect the Stark name. Since he knows that Kings Landing is in shambles, knows that Tyrion has been convicted for the murder, and probably knows that the Lannisters will not be in power much longer, whomever takes control after Cersei will probably want stability in the North when winter comes. And thus they will not go to war over a Stark girl wich the Warden of the North has under control.
chikusho said:
Quite the contrary. When every act, statement and motivation is explicitly spelled out, the show quickly becomes a bore.
Sorry, are those the two choices? Either everything is explicitly spelled out and detailed, or you have to make wild guesses about why anything is happening?
Or you make educated guesses based on the information that the show provides you with, which I'm doing right know. Your reaction to Sansa going to Bolton was that it was crazy and shitty writing (which really sounds quite frustrating). My reaction was that it was really clever; another feather in the hat of our devious friend Petyr Baelish.