I never used the past as an argument. I do think the 3DS will be successful, but yes, this launch was an absolute bomb. Seriously, launching a system in March, and all the big system sellers aren't coming out until September or later. They didn't even have the EShop on launch until June.
I have been enjoying the games I get on the Eshop (there are some really good games there if you look for them), and I've mostly been using the 3DS for all the DS games I've missed. With the better graphics, better controls and better online service, it's a good system. A great system, even. But between the bad launch and for some reason Nintendo deciding to advertise the worst part of the system (the 3D) instead of all those good things I listed before, it's just been shooting itself in the figurative foot.
And with lots of great games either staying Japan only (Professor Layton vs Phoenix Wright), just not coming out at all (Megaman Legends 3... hmmm, both involve Capcom... I'm seeing a pattern here...) or still months away (Every single first party title from Nintendo), the next few months are going to be rough for Nintendo until said games come out. And it might even be too late.
Also, Jim, this site hates Nintendo, practically by reflex at this point. This kind of video is only going to get you more fans.