mike1921 said:
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Except the 50 people who bought it at 60 won't buy it again at $40 and neither will buy it again at $30, and also does the calculation take into account people who would've otherwise bought it at launch end up never buying it because they lost interest or the idea of buying the game just left their mind over time
That's using your noodle. It always helps to know or at least have a reasonable guess as to what the target population is going to be. So like any ODE looking into previous trends, making a call on the median k(arry) value... is all a part of the fun. Stuff you mentioned such as a reduction to the pool, interest levels, so on and so forth entail a multivariate dimension to the problem.
Addressing it is normally the offset by including some gimmick or collectible, data is collected using reservation information, advertisements, optional DLC, running specials or deals helps rekindle interest. Of course, people vote the wallet, so price dumps always spark an interest. Once the price gets low enough traditionally even a crap thing will sell like gangbusters. So... there we are. The trick is figuring the schedule on it.
This is pretty critical especially if one only has the one thing to sell. Like anything though, it is an extrapolation... which is fancy word of educated guess, which is a fancy way of saying a guess. As time rolls on the new data will have the changes in the trends and the price will be structured accordingly, closer to interpolation.
Folks that are slow with the math get an all expense paid trip to bankruptcy. So, market forces do what they do... sort the wheat from the chaff. Then again there are always those pesky "black swans" such as Day Z for Arma II mod. Now Arma is selling again, but it has nothing to do with Bohemia Interactive being innovative or courting its audience. It has EVERYTHING to do with a fan kicking out a freebie...
As far as Team Bodi... whatever they were called, I read/heard bad management and a lack of a skeletal rigger which crippled the production of L.A. Noire. The first one is not here or there, the second was clearly a lack of a professional for the position.
Shit like that is hard for marketing people to get their itty biddy little heads around. A) A typical business management degree rarely ever goes past Calculus 1 (if that), and multivariate Calculus isn't introduced till Calc II. B) Typically they are very poorly educated as to what it is they are actually selling... ahh the list is endless. If I had to call it one way or the other it is a pretty piss poor approach to management of transmedia. It will be interesting to watch going forward how much a negative audience reaction lingers and contaminates other products.
Bottom line... it's whatever the market will bare. Right now it seems to hold 60 clams to 80 clams per unit. To go any further with a discussion really would need to "see" the numbers... but real information is rarely offered up. If it gets into a free fall it could be a boon for the independent who can offer a product for a lot less money... Corporate recession always opens up some profit avenues for a smaller more nimble business model.
Thing is, larger publishers are already keenly aware of the situation and are quickly, methodically positioning themselves to act as distributors. So the peanut gallery is going to be just that.
If ya don't like it, don't buy it. As far as games go, there are thousands available for next to nothing... sure it's not the hot new thing... but they still exist. So luxury item... eh, I dunno about that. Outside of some crappy plastic toy and an art book, they are not even collectible much anymore. It's like the fake economy... a bubble... now will it burst?