CriticKitten said:
mfeff said:
Better go back and check those figures you gave to the marketing people then, because your math is off here.
Man o man... third response to this post... will the madness ever stop! Nah, just teasing... having of addressed all sorts of various aspects of this, I will try to hit just the hot topics you bring up.
-The first one... these are not my numbers.
The target pool for the example is specified by the OP as being fixed, and I took a pretty big liberty at that, making a further assumption that as the price decreases one's product dips into a different pool of purchasers. Many an economics or stats class will run these types of simulations and cover this topic. For brevity sake I will say, upper, middle, lower class pools, each with there own independent pools of purchasers.
I should of been more clear on that. Although I skirt around it in other post. Get the cost low enough, people that where NEVER interested may purchase the widget. It's cost, just cost... cost into different pools of different interest with tons of overlap. Like working a topology problem.
You incorrectly assumed that the person who bought the game as $60 will then buy the game again at $40 and $30. Which won't happen because no one buys themselves three copies of the same game.
It's not the same person, see above as to why.
The correct math would be 60 * 50 = $3000, then 40 * 50 = $2000, then 30 * 100 = $3000, for a total of $8000.
Correct and I didn't really feel bothered to point that out, as the OP assumed a fixed population with the only mitigating factor as to "sell through" being a cost barrier. Still in yet... 8k is more than 3k, is more than 4k, is more than 6k. Even considering
that the premise shows some promise which is why it is done in the work-a-day-world, but the application is suspect. Thing is do we want to go into a cost optimization lesson on the escapist forums? Eh? Shrug... I stand by the notion that the premise of a cost gate is faulty and simply does not go deep enough.
Though you point out the flaws nicely.
1) Will the player who refused to buy at $60 still want the game three months down the line when it drops in price, or will another game have come along that replaced his desire to buy that full-price title? For example, Torchlight 2 will end up replacing several people's desire for Diablo 3 by sheer virtue of the price barrier, and the former isn't even released yet. But since they offered pre-purchase before the release of D3 (deliberately, as a marketing move), suddenly the notion of getting a similar game in the future for only $20 is going to appeal to more people than getting a $60 game right now.
Great use of an example!
Maybe... but in the case of Acti-Blizzard stuff they are very slow to reduce the price schedule as there products seem to be utilizing synergism around creation the Blizzard network and gating there customers to their service plan. Torchlight cannot offer that. Starcraft II is sitting around 44-60 bucks a copy today. It dropped around 6, 2010... so at a year after launch, it's still "high". Also the D3 buy got someone a year of WoW. Which simply reinforces what I just said. Torchlight is certainly a similar product but it is not the "authentic" Diablo clone, nor could it ever really be. I cannot say that people won't purchase both, especially if TL2 goes on the cheap. Can't expect D3 to drop in price anytime soon.
2) Will the game actually drop to $40 in three months, or will it take longer? Most publishers try to juice their title for quite a long time before dropping from the $60 mark. Skyrim was released in November of last year, and to this date (a full six months later), it's still being sold for $60 unless you've snapped it up during a Steam sale....which sort of helps emphasize the point Jim is making, that the price barrier is too high.
Skyrim does something interesting, in that it allows for the leveraging of the player base to create new material for the title. Again, looking at Day Z for Arma II has generated more sales and that was done, for free, and Bohemia Interactive enjoys the proceeds. Skyrim simply built it into it's design. Again if the product has no direct apparent competition in the marketplace, and nothing foreseeable on the horizon, why drop the price? In Skyrim's case I would suspect that it will be offered from time to time as a sale item, and those numbers calculated to see what the new pool of interest at the price gate actually is.
The simple fact of the matter is that even if the publishers were making good games all the time (and generally they aren't), they're pricing themselves too high. And thanks to new distribution methods like Steam, the indie game market has been making a killing off of the increasing greed of mainstream publishers and will continue to do so.
The indie game market exist pretty much because of Steam. Rock paper shotgun ran an article discussing indie games and how even mentioning one on their site could change the fortunes of a developer. So there is truth in advertising after all.
As far as pricing them high, it is based on an extrapolation not an interpolation. I discussed this further up. Prices have also gone up, not down. They will continue to go up, especially considering Day 1 DLC, other odds and ends... a game could be nearly a hundred dollars. As far as the "cost gate",
that is the gate. A decision to buy all the extra crap or not. To think about dropping a price one needs data that suggest that, not speculation.
Maybe the speculation is right? Let's support it with data. That's all I am saying.
Also as a pro-tip from a math person, you don't need a first order differential equation to perform typical optimization (that is, optimization involving min/max). That would be over-thinking it. Most optimization can be performed with simple algebra and a basic algorithm that can be calculated entirely by hand. Not that it matters for this situation, because you don't need to do much of any math to realize that the publishers have set themselves up for failure by overpricing the product. Sales are down, it's a bad economy, they should be able to put the figurative two and two together. Right now, they're basically saying 2 + 2 = fish.
Great, thanks for clearing that up. What is a math person by the way? Minor in math? Major in math? Help me out here. I personally prefer ODE to this "simple algorithm", I guess your talking about some form of a series, summation... Taylor?
I think the jury is still out as to what publishers have and have not set themselves up for. As I stated, the price has gone up, and will continue to go up. They will be cost gated because it is cost gated NOW, right now, TODAY. Additional content will be sold continually to support the initial purchase.
This solves market over-saturation, maintains a used game scheme, and supports the digital distribution models. What is there to change?
The big factor today appears to be "retention" and getting away from churn.
The used game demonstrates the cost optimization as it is not subject to the publishers contractual arrangement as to the fixed nature of the initial price. The vendor has no contract with such terms with the consumer. The cost changes and product dissemination's work very much like how a brokerage house values a stock.
So it is already here. It has been here for some time.
As far as what the "problems" are... they are a plenty. Cost gating may be one of them... but as to what extent the real impact is... shrug... not my problem. I simply doubt that it is much of one, and to that end seriously question any argument based on fixed populations and assumptions as to what the audience really is. That goes on all sides of it though, publisher, vendor, developer, and audience.
Need more facts to make informed decisions. If it was as simple as reducing the price to cash in on more $$$ it would of already been done. So that is clearly not the plan. The plan is the one in plain sight.