xPixelatedx said:
AzrealMaximillion said:
But you can't possibly know this well in advance that games won't profit on the PS4/Next Box. That and to be frank, the PS4 does have a pretty promising series of launch titles
Many games aren't making (a good enough) profit now.
It would be worth the time and effort to keep up with the news of whats happening now because it's really interesting seeing all this unfold. Studios are closing, talented people are being let go...
and this is all from games that are getting good reviews that were also released on consoles with HUGE user bases! It's very predictable what will happen the first year of the ps4;
it will do poorly. Just like the PS3 and the wiiU, the initial sales will be great but then you won't be able to pay people to take them off store shelves.
That assumes that all studios close due to the same factors, which simply isn't the case. THQ and Red Octane didn't close for the same reasons. We can easily state that THQ failed due to at least 2 major factor. The massive failure and expended funds of the Warhammer MMO and the Draw Something fiasco. That's THQ. The same can't be said for other video game companies. So I just can't accept the argument that because studios are closing with huge user bases, no one will profit on the PS4/NextBox. It's a very thin argument that gets defeated when you take even a peripheral glance at it. Just looking at how the week Yen is helping the Japanese gaming market is a big help for the PS4's feature.
That and to be frank, the PS4 does have a pretty promising series of launch titles
I know this based on personal opinion, but I haven't seen a single appealing thing come from the PS4 yet, and I am saying that as a Sony fan to. At least Nintendo "attempted" to lure in some Nintendo fans with a Mario game for the wiiU's launch. A lot of people didn't like the Sony conference, and one of the reasons why is it didn't look like there would be a strong library of games to distract from the social media nonsense they were trying to sell us.[/quote]
That's seems to be your personal opinion, which isn't concrete enough to say that the PS4's launch will be as bad as the Wii U. Hell, on these forums with the way MS is handling the NextBox and the way Nintendo is handling the WiiU many people here are most excited for the PS4 because it seems like the console with the smallest need for PR/damage control. We know the launch games for the PS4. A lot of people are particularly excited for The Last of Us and Project Destiny, which is more than anyone can say for the Wii U currently. A lot of people may not have liked Sony's conference, but a lot of people also did. This is more of a wait and see game now. You're using your opinion as too much of a factor when there are plenty of mitigating factors that go against it. You may not be excited to see what Bungie is going to do on a Sony console, or what Naughty Dog will do with The Last of Us, but the press and general reception has been pretty optimistic for those 2 games alone, and we haven't even hit E3 yet.
I said this earlier in the thread. Nintendo's Wii U is mirroring the Sega Saturn. Good console, but due to previous business practices, the 3rd party is licking their wounds. If history repeats itself we'll see a major publisher publicly say they won't make games for the Wii U. Just like EA did to Sega.
A lot of that didn't make any sense, particularly the EA part. EA wasn't the entity it is today in the era of the Saturn,
no one cared about them in the grand scope of the industry.[/quote] Lolwut?First off Sega is one of the reasons EA got as big as it is now in the console realm thanks to the sports game that sold more on the Genesis than on the SNES. Secondly, you must not have a clue as to how bad the Saturn life cycle truly was. It was horrible for a few reasons.
1.They originally announced that it was to be available on September 2nd 1995. Then at E3 of that years (May 11) they came out and said that release date was a "ruse" and said that the console would be available immediately.
2. This was a major cock up because
they didn't tell any 3rd party developers this at all. That means that every 3rd party developer was still making their games for the original September 2nd release and there was not a damn thing Sega could do in the process. The Saturn came out with 6 games and nothing else until 4 months later.
3.The console was sold exclusively at only 4 stores, Toys R Us, EB, Baggages(which went bankrupt in 1996 and wasn't that big in the 90s), and Software Etc(which got eaten up by GameStop soon after). This pissed off Wal-Mart and KB Toys. KB Toys was so pissed they decided not to carry the Satrun when they were eventually given the option.
4.It only sold 9 million in the 3 years it was out. 2.1 of which was in North America. Yeah, it bombed hard in NA due to the factors about and the price being $399. An extra hoof to the balls came from Sony when they, at the same E3, announced a $299 price point. The Sautrn was great in Japan but a failure literally everywhere else. This resulted in a 268 million dollar loss and 30% of Sega's workforce being laid off.
5. They announced the Dreamcast only 3 years later. Now this pissed a lot of developer off because that means that they would have to quickly learn a new console's coding while still making PS1 and N64 games. That means lost money. EA was particularly pissed because Sega bought Visual Concepts(which would then be sold to Take Two 6 years later as 2K Games), to replace EA's exclusivity in Sega's sports game market. When EA essentially said, "we're not making games for the Dreamcast", a lot of other publishers followed suit. They figured if EA as big as they are can't make money with Sega, not too many people can.
It should also be noted the Saturn didn't do too bad when it first launched, it was in the middle of that gen that it started to loose momentum (which is BAD).
Wrong again. The Saturn sold only 80,000 units in its first 4 months on shelves. The PS1 sold 100,000 in its first weekend. The Saturn only did moderately well in Japan.
The WiiU is currently mirroring the PS3 and 3DS; two consoles that had horrible starts and picked up immensely once there were reasons to buy them.
That's a couple of misconceptions and I'll tell you how. If you look at the PS3's launch sales and factor in that the 360 came out a year earlier, the 2 sold neck and neck in terms of units over time. And that's not even factoring in the 360s sold again and again due to RROD. There weren't any major spike for either console, and the PS3 gradually came to overtake the 360, so the launch of the PS3 wasn't as bad as people make it out to be. And to be frank, the 3DS saw a sales spike because of the 33% price drop that came out 6 months after release. People seems to want to forget that about the 3DS, but that's really was saved that console.
When the good (and lets face it, first party) games start rolling out and no one is still buying wiiUs, then Nintendo will be in trouble.
This I can agree on. Everyone seems to think that first party games will save the WiiU. Problem is, Nintendo hasn't been presented with having to deal with having to work to get customers for almost 8 years. I don't think a new Mario or Zelda game will save the Wii U. Look at every other franchise Nintendo has. The only one that have been given any respect are Mario and Zelda and Skyward Sword was more divisive than people give credit. Metroid still has a bit of a bad taste in people's mouths thanks to Other M, and the Wario, DK, Kirby, Yoshi, and many other Nintendo franchises have just been 2D sidescroller that could have been done on handhelds.
I do however see them being 3rd this gen if they don't at least bother to advertise to the casual people like before.
I disagree that marketing to casual would help. Casual gamers are not repeat customers. Zynga and many other failing Facebook developers will tell you that. Hell, a lot of the casual games on the Wii failed (Cold Stone Creamery's Scoop It Up anyone? How about draw something). Casual gamers tend to be good with what they have and won't spend 300+ dollars for an upgrade to play the same game with a few new features.
That's what has me saying that Nintendo is mirroring Sega here. They treated the 3rd party devs that wanted to make core games like dirt and marketed only themselves, just like Sega did. And them cancelling their E3, while good for Nintendo due to it being cheaper, probably isn't the best for developers. Do they now have to present with Nintendo AND E3, or do they choose? If they choose, can they demo their games on the Wii U at E3? We'll have to see, but its not looking good right now for the Wii U.
We'll have to see if the PS4 and NextBox succeed, but your point on why they'll fail fall more into opinion rather than any analytically inclined points.
