Simonism451 said:
It's hilarious because much of what you say is basically what he's saying, i.e. that AAA game-development has become so bloated in costs that everything has to be an immense hit just to get even, which in turn leads to publishers wanting to avoid risks by churning out the same stuff (or forcing the devs to put in new stuff at the last second, just because it's "in" right now) and instead trying to get an edge by having shinier normal mapping and ray-occlusion and a bigger marketing budget. If you had used some of the time you spent writing those ten paragraphs to actually read what the guy is saying, then you maybe would have saved enough time to make yourself a cup of tea, watch a funny video and all-together come across as less of a twat.
You might need to re-read what I said then, as long as it might be.
He's talking about the industry as it is now, and working from the perspective that the current costs involved in developing these games are justified. He's argueing largely that while big games have their place, the industry needs to move away from AAA-level game development since it's so difficult to break even or make a profit.
In response what I pointed out was that AAA game development doesn't need to be that expensive, it's only where it is because of bloat. With increased professionalism and better organization you could make these games with half the manpower. The primary cost of making a game being the human resources, office space and computers are cheap when your dealing with budgets this size, the big cost comes from the huge number of people on the project, most of whom aren't likely to be working or doing anything of value for the majority of time they are being paid, especially seeing as many of them are going to be on staff for very specialized jobs.
The guy writing this is the head of Avalanche Studios, I can't speak for his particular company, but if it's like most I've seen "virtual tours" of and looked at the production credits of after a finished game, he could for example probably do the same job more cost effectively by cutting half of his team and demanding professional levels of conduct and productivity from the rest. That might not make it a "fun, creative workplace" like a lot of people going into gaming might want, but it also means a AAA level game wouldn't be the burden it is now.
On the other hand I was also more or less calling him a liar, because he's going off on how all these games are losing money or barely breaking even, and how companies are relying on the occasional success to pick up the slack for the rest. Looking at what's claimed by the industry almost yearly I find that hard to believe. We're talking a multi billion dollar industry, which is seeing constant growth, and countries wanting to encourage domestic video game development and associated companies because of what a profitable industry it is, and yet allegedly people are losing money hand over fist. As I explained what I think it is, is that "losses" are being defined as simply not making as much money as you think you should be. You'll notice most "bad news" involves companies saying "well, we made 25% less profits than we did during our peak earning period last year", or "our product fell far short of it's projections". That's touted as being a loss, but in reality it's making millions upon millions of dollars. Some company only makes 75 million in profit (profit being computed after expenses) instead of 100 million in profit like the previous year... cry me a bloody river. Some bean counter tells you that you should get 100 million off of a new product, and you only make 20 million, that's still 20 million in your pocket after expenses, you didn't LOSE anything, yet it's presented as some great catastrophe. Simply put if this guy was telling the complete truth and the gaming industry was in that bad a shape we'd likely have already seen the video game crash people have been forecasting. It doesn't happen because while some companies go under (like in any business) enough people are making enough money to keep it going, and the industry as a whole is pretty bloody healthy.
At any rate his bottom line seems to be a pitch for shovelware, albeit a phrased more diplomatically. He seems to be argueing that while big games have their place, the industry should instead focus on smaller, less ambitious, games produced in higher numbers, so less is riding on any one product. In short what your already seeing, as many companies move away from AAA game development and have turned to funding things in App-space or faux-indie productions. The idea being that you never know when some piece of shovelware will be the next "Candy Crush Saga" or "Angry Birds" games which can make as much as a big time AAA title for a fraction of the investment. You produce a thousand of those babies for the cost of one "Just Cause" and your odds of success go up.
You might disagree, but that's how I read what he's saying, and responded accordingly. I say keep working on high quality games, but streamline the development teams and manage them more professionally. 40 specialist graphics designers is a pointless excess, and tends to create messes like you see with games like "The Old Republic" with all the clipping issues. You get 10 people, carefully manage them, and have them work together and your going to get better results for a fraction of the price. Granted this means we won't see virtual tours where Coder Joe has all of his D&D stuff stacked up on his desk with the definite implication he runs a game in-office, and it might be a less fun place
to work, but it does mean a "AAA" quality game won't be costing as much to make.