Michael Pachter Says Call of Duty is a Failure

[Gigano]

And how much of Call of Duty's popularity stem from the very fact that it's got free multiplayer?

If a subscription was introduced, there are other FPS series consumers could migrate to (Battlefield 3), or it'd open up room for a new one to take the throne. That WoW players were from the start willing to pay $180 a year doesn't in the least guarantee that CoD players are suddenly willing to do the same.

CoD is a successful business model, it just isn't as successful as other business models it can't magically be turned into. Not now, and probably not from the start either.

 

[Hjalmar Fryklund]

I think the first thing Activision buys is Take-Two, because that fits in very nicely.

Good fucking God I hope not. I really hope not.
Take-Two is about the only AAA Publisher who hasn't pissed me off to the point where I stopped buying their products on principle alone. On average, their games feel a bit less generic than normal, and I actually have...FUN playing them.

I shouldn't act too surprised. Every other excellent AAA developer and publisher has gone down the shitter in the last decade, only to be muscled out by douchebags in suits peddling the most generic pigshit year after year.

If that actually happens I would be wondering about the ripple effects it would cause. How competitors would react to the market shares changing and so forth.

Disregarding that though, what are the actual chances of Activision buying Take-Two?

?I think Nintendo becomes completely irrelevant,? Pachter claimed. ?They have their niche, Nintendo's first-party content is great content, and hardcore people will keep buying their consoles, but they're not going to only play with Nintendo consoles.?

*glares angrily at 3DS*
Tell me about it.

Outside of Japan, Big N's systems have first-party titles and close to nothing else (maybe a port of a Capcom game or two, but unless you're addicted to Resident Evil and Street Fighter, that doesn't mean much anymore).
Their whole game market and strategy is shitbiscuits.

Have you given Heroes of Ruin a shake? Or checked out some of the minor titles at the eShop?

Do note, I am not disagreeing with your assessment.

CAPTCHA: that's it

Being text-based, captcha is making it quite difficult to determine whenether it is tossing in the towel or if it just finished something.

 

[Atmos Duality]

If that actually happens I would be wondering about the ripple effects it would cause. How competitors would react to the market shares changing and so forth.

Disregarding that though, what are the actual chances of Activision buying Take-Two?

I don't know, but I do know that Activision is riding high right now, and are in the most stable position.
That normally translates into the first stage of consolidation.

It would not surprise me to see them make a move towards acquiring Take-Two's properties so they can bury them, as they have done with others (like most of Sierra's old properties).

Have you given Heroes of Ruin a shake? Or checked out some of the minor titles at the eShop?

Actually, yeah. I do regularly check out the eShop.
Most of the stuff there is overpriced classics, or iffy, but I do own a couple of titles outside of my Ambassador games.
It's actually quite sad that I use most of the ambassador games far far more often than any actual 3DS title.

As for Heroes of Ruin, I will look into it later.

CAPTCHA: that's it

Being text-based, captcha is making it quite difficult to determine whenether it is tossing in the towel or if it just finished something.

I keep getting ad-spam for some shingles website and Dish, and nothing else.
Sufficed to say, I am never going to do business with either.

 

[The White Hunter]

Um...he didn't say it was the CoD series was a failure. He said they made a mistake in one regard. Why the misleading, sensationalist headline?

Because this is The Escapist and it's Andy, they do this from time to time.

OT: Meh, Activision buying Take 2? Now there is a fucking terrifying thought!

 

[Hjalmar Fryklund]

If that actually happens I would be wondering about the ripple effects it would cause. How competitors would react to the market shares changing and so forth.

Disregarding that though, what are the actual chances of Activision buying Take-Two?

I don't know, but I do know that Activision is riding high right now, and are in the most stable position.
That normally translates into the first stage of consolidation.

It would not surprise me to see them make a move towards acquiring Take-Two's properties so they can bury them, as they have done with others (like most of Sierra's old properties).

Then the question for me becomes: If Activision actually takes a stab at doing so, would the other major players in the western video games market attempt a counter-move in order to try to prevent Activision from potentially gaining too high a market share?

Have you given Heroes of Ruin a shake? Or checked out some of the minor titles at the eShop?

Actually, yeah. I do regularly check out the eShop.
Most of the stuff there is overpriced classics, or iffy, but I do own a couple of titles outside of my Ambassador games.
It's actually quite sad that I use most of the ambassador games far far more often than any actual 3DS title.

As for Heroes of Ruin, I will look into it later.

Personally, I have bought Dillion´s Rolling Western (which had a surprising amount of content) and Hana Samurai (kinda blah). I am planning on checking out two other titles (when I am finished with RE: Revelations and the fourth Layton), one mission-based shooter and one wonky western game (sorry, their names escape me, I'm afraid).

As for the 3DS line-up, yeah, it ain't very impressive at the moment. I am mostly playing regular DS games on it. Not that it bothers me that much, there are a lot strange (and frequently unique) titles to chug through.

CAPTCHA: that's it

Being text-based, captcha is making it quite difficult to determine whenether it is tossing in the towel or if it just finished something.

I keep getting ad-spam for some shingles website and Dish, and nothing else.
Sufficed to say, I am never going to do business with either.

Sounds like something is bugged up. If you find it really annoying I would suggest taking it up with the tech team [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/groups/view/Tech-Team].

 

[Atmos Duality]

Then the question for me becomes: If Activision actually takes a stab at doing so, would the other major players in the western video games market attempt a counter-move in order to try to prevent Activision from potentially gaining too high a market share?

Realistically, the other publishers may attempt to make counter-offers on Take-Two's property, and depending on the intentions of the Take-Two execs, that could get really messy, really fast.
At this stage, I have to include the possibility of an anti-trust suit, since realistically, it'd be down to Zenimax, EA, Ubisoft, and Activision.

And Zenimax isn't THAT big compared to the others.

Personally, I have bought Dillion´s Rolling Western (which had a surprising amount of content) and Hana Samurai (kinda blah). I am planning on checking out two other titles (when I am finished with RE: Revelations and the fourth Layton), one mission-based shooter and one wonky western game (sorry, their names escape me, I'm afraid).

As for the 3DS line-up, yeah, it ain't very impressive at the moment. I am mostly playing regular DS games on it. Not that it bothers me that much, there are a lot strange (and frequently unique) titles to chug through.

I saw Dillion's, saw the price, then kind of waffled on the decision before saying 'no'.
I might nab it to justify my 3DS's existence this Christmas, because the slew of MOAR MARIO sure as hell isn't doing that.

What bugs me, is that Nintendo has a lot of stuff on the Wii's Virtual Console that they could port to the 3DS, yet they aren't. I'm guessing it's for technical reasons, but I could be wrong. (Nintendo still refuses to translate and sell the Mother series on VC, even though fans have been doing translations for FREE for years now.)

At this stage, I expect them to be able to emulate SNES titles, and not just the varieties of Gameboy and NES stuff.
I mean, jeez. We had working SNES emulators on the DREAMCAST a decade ago.

Sounds like something is bugged up. If you find it really annoying I would suggest taking it up with the tech team [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/groups/view/Tech-Team].

Eh. It's Ad-Captchas. I figured it was just the needs of the website outweighing my petty complaints.
Though I will mock the captcha system at every turn when it pulls this crap, because it betrays EXACTLY the reason they claimed to have implemented it in the first place.

 

[Hjalmar Fryklund]

Realistically, the other publishers may attempt to make counter-offers on Take-Two's property, and depending on the intentions of the Take-Two execs, that could get really messy, really fast.
At this stage, I have to include the possibility of an anti-trust suit, since realistically, it'd be down to Zenimax, EA, Ubisoft, and Activision.

And Zenimax isn't THAT big compared to the others.

Probably something along those lines, I suppose. My guess is that if one or several of the big names (besides Activision that is) want to make a deal with Take-Two they will do so individually, but if Activision moves in and buys Take-Two and an anti-trust suit is held (sorry if this isn't the correct verb, real late over here) then I would also guess that the other big guys on the block will pool their resources on the anti-trust suit.

I saw Dillion's, saw the price, then kind of waffled on the decision before saying 'no'.
I might nab it to justify my 3DS's existence this Christmas, because the slew of MOAR MARIO sure as hell isn't doing that.

What bugs me, is that Nintendo has a lot of stuff on the Wii's Virtual Console that they could port to the 3DS, yet they aren't. I'm guessing it's for technical reasons, but I could be wrong. (Nintendo still refuses to translate and sell the Mother series on VC, even though fans have been doing translations for FREE for years now.)

At this stage, I expect them to be able to emulate SNES titles, and not just the varieties of Gameboy and NES stuff.
I mean, jeez. We had working SNES emulators on the DREAMCAST a decade ago.

It might have something to do with the Wii U launch. Their management is likely to be busy with licensing deals with developers in order for them to get a decent line-up for their new console.

Regarding SNES games on the 3DS, oh yes, that would be real sweet. To say the least, it would be a good market to tap into; I could even see a good deal of new 3DSs sold because of it (and if I could get the older installments of the Mana series on the 3DS, I would be a very happy seal).

Honestly, I kinda surprised (and not in a good way) that I haven't even thought about this before.

 

[dancinginfernal]

Spoiler: BREAKING NEWS

MICHAEL PACHTER STATES THE OBVIOUS ABOUT THE VIDEO GAME INDUSTRY:
More at 11!

Seriously, all this guy ever spouts are things that people have already predicted will happen through use of their own common fucking sense.

 

[Atmos Duality]

Probably something along those lines, I suppose. My guess is that if one or several of the big names (besides Activision that is) want to make a deal with Take-Two they will do so individually, but if Activision moves in and buys Take-Two and an anti-trust suit is held (sorry if this isn't the correct verb, real late over here) then I would also guess that the other big guys on the block will pool their resources on the anti-trust suit.

The thing about the anti-trust suit, is that it has to be filed in part with the United States (just as it was done in Microsoft vs United States), so they're really going to have to petition if it comes to that.

Whether or not it's quite up to anti-trust levels...well, it's getting there.

Of course in the ISP market, Comcast has had anti-trust levels of market share for years now, and nobody has done shit.
So maybe it won't come to that.

It might have something to do with the Wii U launch. Their management is likely to be busy with licensing deals with developers in order for them to get a decent line-up for their new console.

I want to believe that, but reality suggests it's more than the WiiU launch. I keep seeing non-Mario titles being pushed back, and back, and back. Kid Icarus: Uprising was delayed twice, for a total of 5 months.

Fire Emblem: Awakening has been out in Japan since April of this year, and will be out in Europe and US a solid year after that.

Konami's new Castlevania game has been pushed back again recently, to March of 2013.

It's an avoidance pattern, and so far, only Capcom has been bucking the trend.

Regarding SNES games on the 3DS, oh yes, that would be real sweet. To say the least, it would be a good market to tap into; I could even see a good deal of new 3DSs sold because of it (and if I could get the older installments of the Mana series on the 3DS, I would be very happy seal).

Honestly, I kinda surprised (and not in a good way) that I haven't even thought about this before.

I don't know what is holding them back.
The 3DS has raw performance specs on par with a Pentium 2, and ZSNES was running on those just fine back in 2000.
Keep in mind, that Pentium 2 was also running solely with MMX support; processors have evolved a LOT since then.
A. LOT.

Maybe the emulator environment has to be bootstrapped to the regular 3DS environment, and the load is just too much.
Though that would imply some fairly serious design flaws in what is supposedly a modern handheld.

 

[Hiroshi Mishima]

The guy seems to fail at basic understanding of how gamers, and I suppose games themselves, seem to work. If the next Call of Duty game suddenly featured Subscription-based service, a lot of players would either go back to a previous title which didn't have this, or play exclusively local multiplayer. Well, that or just take it back/not buy it.

His mentality by using World of Warcraft shows he hasn't thought this out. WoW does not release a new version of the game every year or two. It has expansions, but that adds onto the core game. The only way Call of Duty and other multiplayer titles could make this work is if they never released another game, but with the industry and greedy and copy-paste happy as it is, that's very unlikely to happen either.

Making a new game every so often is how these types of games make their money.

 

[bigfatcarp93]

Okay, he may be completely wrong, but am I the only one who's excited by the prospect of there being ONE businessman who has at least a basic comprehension of how video games as a business model work?

P.S. can someone kindly tell me how to do a strikethrough?

 

[Badassassin]

Yes! How DARE a market analyst point out a flaw in another company's marketing!

Guys seriously, it's his job to make money off of gamers. Yes, they made a billion dollars, but just because he pointed out they could have made more doesn't make him an evil Scrooge McDuck. Now, "failure" might be a bit of a stretch.

 

[Hjalmar Fryklund]

The thing about the anti-trust suit, is that it has to be filed in part with the United States (just as it was done in Microsoft vs United States), so they're really going to have to petition if it comes to that.

Whether or not it's quite up to anti-trust levels...well, it's getting there.

Of course in the ISP market, Comcast has had anti-trust levels of market share for years now, and nobody has done shit.
So maybe it won't come to that.

Perhaps so, but what are the differences in competition between the two markets then? Because I am pretty sure that partly accounts for the inaction against Comcast.

I want to believe that, but reality suggests it's more than the WiiU launch. I keep seeing non-Mario titles being pushed back, and back, and back. Kid Icarus: Uprising was delayed twice, for a total of 5 months.

Fire Emblem: Awakening has been out in Japan since April of this year, and will be out in Europe and US a solid year after that.

Konami's new Castlevania game has been pushed back again recently, to March of 2013.

It's an avoidance pattern, and so far, only Capcom has been bucking the trend.

Sorry, I should have said that the Wii U launch is one of several factors involved. I didn't mean to imply that it was the sole operative one.

Regarding the avoidance pattern, it could either be some bad management or possibly that their comparative advantage has become smaller (I should probably get out my books on trade theory for this). Or both.

I don't know what is holding them back.
The 3DS has raw performance specs on par with a Pentium 2, and ZSNES was running on those just fine back in 2000.
Keep in mind, that Pentium 2 was also running solely with MMX support; processors have evolved a LOT since then.
A. LOT.

Maybe the emulator environment has to be bootstrapped to the regular 3DS environment, and the load is just too much.
Though that would imply some fairly serious design flaws in what is supposedly a modern handheld.

That raises the question: If it is bootstrapped, why didn't they put the SNES emulator in rather than just the NES?

The only answer I can think of is that shoving in the SNES emulator together with the GB/GBC emulator was too much for the space available, which led to them going for second best option (NES + GB + GBC).

I am not very aware of what those design flaws you mention would be though. You mind giving me the general gist of things?

 

[blackrave]

It is a really sad time we are living in
It isn't enough to make profit, It isn't enough to make a good profit
You need to suck up all of people's money like some sort of greedy vacuum cleaner
Only then you will be considered successful
Seriously people who supports such approach need to be gathered up in one place and euthanized
For everybody's sake...

P.S. And engrave on their mass grave "You can't take your money to the grave"

 

[Atmos Duality]

Perhaps so, but what are the differences in competition between the two markets then? Because I am pretty sure that partly accounts for the inaction against Comcast.

The ISP market in the United States is a corrupt mess.

Comcast has been shuffling its assets around for years dodging warnings from the FCC, but so far that's all I've seen from the FCC: all bluster and no action. They probably have friends in high places, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

As for gaming, for the longest time, the US political system was unwilling to take the gaming industry seriously (apart from a lot of ignorant reactionary organizations and "save the childrens" saber-rattling prudes like Jack Thompson).

Gaming is now culturally mainstream, but they aren't nearly as old or embedded in the political system as the other media fat-cats (film, music, TV and radio). Based on the "symbiotic" relationship I've seen between the government and that lot (especially media giants like Viacom), I'm not holding my breath on an anti-trust suit.

Sorry, I should have said that the Wii U launch is one of several factors involved. I didn't mean to imply that it was the sole operative one.

Regarding the avoidance pattern, it could either be some bad management or possibly that their comparative advantage has become smaller (I should probably get out my books on trade theory for this). Or both.

This point I actually have a theory about: The Strong Yen.
Currency exchange losses crushed Nintendo in 2010-2011, resulting in their first ever posted loss.

Nintendo, and much of the Japanese gaming industry, has resorted to an extreme fallback on their domestic market for revenue. Squeenix, Konami, Capcom, Namco...all used to be very prominent players in the global gaming market. Now, only a handful of their very biggest games get ported out in a timely manner, if at all.

A few have attempted outsourcing to lower the costs and exploit tax benefits (Square-Enix especially) but for the most part, Japan is not a dominant player in the global gaming business; they're pretty niche now actually.

Others have told me that Japan is also facing a cultural identity crisis within their own domestic media markets as well, but not living in Japan, I do not know the degree or significance of that crisis, or if it's a major factor here.
Just something to think about.

That raises the question: If it is bootstrapped, why didn't they put the SNES emulator in rather than just the NES?

The only answer I can think of is that shoving in the SNES emulator together with the GB/GBC emulator was too much for the space available, which led to them going for second best option (NES + GB + GBC).

The GB/GBC emulator is easy enough to account for: The Game Boy Advance!

In addition to the GB/GBC compatibility (the GBC and GB were scarcely different at the firmware level), I recall a number of classic NES being ported to the GBA.

Even Metroid: Zero Mission included a fully playable version of the original NES Metroid on it.
So we know that one way or another, the GBA could emulate all of those.

The GBA also has several SNES classics, remade/converted for the GBA.
A Link to the Past, Super Mario 2, 3, and Yoshi's Island. Even Square-Enix remixed several Final Fantasy titles for the GBA and DS.
They aren't direct ports: For example, the audio quality in LttP is distinctly limited, with worse sampling, and many surrogate/replacement sound effects. Signs clearly point to some sort of conversion process.

Since my Zero Mission version of the NES Metroid works on my DS, the NES emulation was probably handled by an emulator packed on top of the original ROM.

Knowing this, I think we can safely guess that the 3DS's current emulation environment (NES + GB/GBC + GBA) all traces back directly to the GBA. (hmm, now I have to wonder if they strapped the guts of a GBA to the 3DS, or if it's handled via software. It's possible it's not bootstrapped at all.)

So...an SNES emulator on the 3DS has no choice but to be purely-software.
The question: Can the 3DS handle it?

The Wii's Virtual Console has a functional SNES emulator, and plays those games extremely close to their original fidelity (quirks and all). From what I can tell, the emulator environment consumes very little overhead.

Of course, that's relative to the Wii, which has considerably more resources than the 3DS.
However we've had SNES emulators on other consoles already (Dreamcast, and the original PSP), plus a whole gaggle of amateur/independent fans writing their own emulators for PC for ~15 years now.

We know that Nintendo is experienced with emulation, so that leaves me to believe that either the cost of developing an SNES emulator for the 3DS outweighed the benefits, that they think the 3DS cannot handle the load, or they just didn't care to begin with.

I am not very aware of what those design flaws you mention would be though. You mind giving me the general gist of things?

Limited dedicated memory for applications, (it does seem to take a while to load/unload applications from my 3DS, even NES games), possibly expressed as limited Nvram for whatever OS image the 3DS is running.

Who knows? Maybe their anti-piracy/anti-jailbreaking system is consuming a lot of overhead.

I'd need more than the listed technical specs to tell you, because while we know the 3DS's hardware, we have no idea how it's actually being utilized.

EDIT: (ripped from another forum, someone dumped the system info, and this is what it spat out)

Nintendo 1048 0H (Custom): CPU, GPU, VRAM & DSP all on one chip
ARM11 MPCore 2x 268MHz & 2x VFP Co-Processor
PICA 200 at 268MHz
128MB FCRAM
6MB VRAM
133/4MHz DSP(sound processor)


If an underclocked PSP (222 Mhz) running a Windows CE environment with ZSNES could hack it just fine, then I think a single 266Mhz processor could too. Might be tricky depending on how the processing environment is set up, but based on the hardware specs I've found, it's well within the 3DS's reach.

 

[mjc0961]

Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 just rang up $1 billion in sales [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/120936-Black-Ops-II-Reaches-1-Billion-Milestone-Faster-Than-MW3] in 15 days, you might be thinking, so... a failure? "Activision did a bad thing with Call of Duty from a profit perspective. They trained gamers that you can buy a game and play it all year, ten hours a week, forever, and you never have to pay again. You just wait for the next Call of Duty," Pachter told the audience.

"I promise you there are plenty of people, numbering in the millions, who play one game, which is Call of Duty, and they never stop. That's just like the people who play World of Warcraft and never stop, yet the World of Warcraft guys are paying $180 a year, and the Call of Duty guys are paying $60. So who's got a better model?" he continued. "This multiplayer thing being free was a mistake. I don't think anybody ever envisioned it would be this big. It's a mistake because it keeps those people from buying and playing other games."

So basically, Call of Duty is a failure because it only made a billion dollars when it could have made more if Activision was even greedier.

Only failure here is, as usual, Michael Pachter. The dumb sod doesn't even seem to realize that CoD gets $15 map pack DLC that lots of people also buy... Oops, so much for "You never have to pay again, you just wait for the next Call of Duty" you dumb fuck!