Next Xbox; If not blu-ray, Then what?

[Ferrious]

Clearly HDVDVBVD!

Though my money is on Red-ray >__>

All hail Sarge!

Seriously though, if they want to continue angling the device as the living-room god it wants to be, then it has to be Blu-Ray. Digital distribution isn't big enough to warrant losing those who think "I'd rather it played games and movies in HD".

 

[philcelery]

The cost of a disk is near $30 to produce

I think you misread something somewhere.

 

[TheFinalFantasyWolf]

I reckon Xbox getting blu-ray would be a cheap copy of PS3.

Yeh, sure, because the Xbox was a cheap copy of the PS2 and the Wii Was a cheap copy of the Xbox simply because they all used the DVD format?

Just because a system uses the same disk format doesn't mean they are cheap copy's of one another.

jeez don't all get offended at once...-_-....just saying that if they are going to market the next Xbox they should have something new to offer....not the same stuff

 

[BloodSquirrel]

In all seriousness Microsoft will probably try to "develop" a new platform or just use BD's it's tough to say. Though I like the idea of them using SDHC cards but I feel the chance for piracy would be huge.

Actually, stopping piracy would be easier if they were using some kind of ROM- they could develop a proprietary card (nothing complicated, just have it use a different pin configuration), patent it, and not let anyone sell blank copies. They could try to do the same with Blu-ray- they don't need to develop a new technology, just modify the existing one enough so that the system won't run standard Blu-ray discs.

Piracy isn't much of an issue on the console side, though. Publishers are MUCH more concerned about used games right now.

 

[Danzaivar]

There is no way Sony will let Microsoft use their technology.

Sony does own the rights to Blu-ray, right?

They're a backer in the consortium behind it. They're also in the same position with DVD's, and Microsoft uses that...

But they won't ever get their hands on Blu-ray, I bet.

Well, until it dies along with all other physical media, lol.

If Sony was going to try block Microsoft from using blu-ray, they would have tried to stop them using DVD's. They didn't.

And think about it, every game Microsoft sells, Sony makes money off the royalties. Why the hell would they stop that?

 

[Buizel91]

I reckon Xbox getting blu-ray would be a cheap copy of PS3.

Yeh, sure, because the Xbox was a cheap copy of the PS2 and the Wii Was a cheap copy of the Xbox simply because they all used the DVD format?

Just because a system uses the same disk format doesn't mean they are cheap copy's of one another.

jeez don't all get offended at once...-_-....just saying that if they are going to market the next Xbox they should have something new to offer....not the same stuff

They don't need anything new to offer though, most consoles from the late 90's to the present used the DVD format, so why can't new consoles use the Blu-Ray format, without being called a cheap copy?

 

[TheFinalFantasyWolf]

I reckon Xbox getting blu-ray would be a cheap copy of PS3.....like how both Playstation and Xbox now have motion controls like the Wii (facepalm).....Something new and original might be nice -_-.....you know, something the competitor DOESN'T have...

Is it so important now to be original that we're going to call copycat at the notion of two consoles using the same disc medium?

I'm not saying that Xbox having Blu-ray would be a "copycat" approach....I'm saying that they better have something else aswell....something new that can attract new or old customors....you know, something that already hasn't been marketed by the PS3...I mean if the new Xbox has nothing big to brag about than the fact that they are now up to date on disc medium with competitors, than THAT would be lame.....my main point was that they better have something else that other console's don't offer.

 

[BloodSquirrel]

The cost of a disk is near $30 to produce,

Better tell that to the studios selling movies on Blu-ray for $20 and less.

Also, if they did use flash, it probably wouldn't be through USB. They'd put an actual card slot (probably a proprietary one) on the console. It would be faster and cheaper than putting the required USB interface on each game they sell.

 

[BrEnNo1023]

Do what PCs do, use the hard-drive (or another type of mass storage device).

I admit it has it flaws like making pirating easer and likely increase the vigorousness of the DRM but it's an another solution to the problem without using Blu-Ray. It is gives better performance and increases the efficiency

Agreed. Using a disc to play games is a tremendous drain on resources in this day and age. With PC gaming and Steam for example being all about the digital download, people can play their games without even needing a CD tray. Services like the PS Store, Steam and MS's own Games on Demand system allow us to buy games and put them straight on the harddrive.

I'm going out on a limb and saying that perhaps the next gen XBoxes might not even have disc trays.

The benefits for consumers are quite substantial when you think about it.......then again, where does that leave businesses like Gamestop, EB Games etc? Perhaps they could start selling games on USB flash drives that console owners can simply plug into their consoles and install to their HDDs without having to download a single megabyte?

I noticed the Alienware M11x gaming laptop has no optical drive. Steam is therefore essential for this little ultraportable powerhouse (i know, you can buy USB cd drives, but I mean if you choose not to use discs). I guess i find these brainstorms quite interesting. Who knows, right? They might stick with HD DVDs, or they might buy into the Blu Ray design instead.

 

[TheFinalFantasyWolf]

I reckon Xbox getting blu-ray would be a cheap copy of PS3.

Yeh, sure, because the Xbox was a cheap copy of the PS2 and the Wii Was a cheap copy of the Xbox simply because they all used the DVD format?

Just because a system uses the same disk format doesn't mean they are cheap copy's of one another.

jeez don't all get offended at once...-_-....just saying that if they are going to market the next Xbox they should have something new to offer....not the same stuff

They don't need anything new to offer though, most consoles from the late 90's to the present used the DVD format, so why can't new consoles use the Blu-Ray format, without being called a cheap copy?

I'm not saying that Xbox having Blu-ray would be a "copycat" approach....I'm not banning the notion.....I'm saying that they better have something else aswell....something new that can attract new or old customors....you know, something that already hasn't been marketed by the PS3...I mean if the new Xbox has nothing big to brag about than the fact that they are now up to date on disc medium with competitors, than THAT would be lame.....my main point was that they better have something else that other console's don't offer.

sorry didn't wanna repeat myself but had to

 

[Dys]

The cost of a disk is near $30 to produce

I think you misread something somewhere.

A quick google search confirms that not only did I misread, but even my more liberal guesses were vastly over estimating the cost of producing a blu ray disc[footnote]Though it must be said the source of cost isn't especially official looking[/footnote] (presumably these costs are for producing them without accounting for hardware, I don't see how one could accurately calculate the cost of an unknown amount of discs including the startup costs). I can't immediately find any source suggesting the cost of producing a USB keychain, though interestingly it apparently costs something like $8000 per year, per title to have the rights to distribute media on a blu ray disc (again, I have no indication of whether or not there is a similar cost for flash drives).

At any rate, I still maintain that, even if the cost if producing a single disc is comparable, that it is still expensive and there are no shortage of alternatives that would make more sense.

The cost of a disk is near $30 to produce,

Better tell that to the studios selling movies on Blu-ray for $20 and less.

Also, if they did use flash, it probably wouldn't be through USB. They'd put an actual card slot (probably a proprietary one) on the console. It would be faster and cheaper than putting the required USB interface on each game they sell.

Yeah my random stabs at production costs were way off, I've seen a source claiming that the discs cost as little as 2c each to manufacture (which naturally means that the only costs are writing to the discs and maintaining the write drives).

I'm not sure that developing and using a proprietary drive would be cheaper than USB, though it very well could be. Even cartridge flash memory (which is quite probably what you were thinking of when you said card slot) would be a workable, cheap alternative.

 

[TheTim]

maybe they'll do Grn-Ray >_0

 

[BloodSquirrel]

A quick google search confirms that not only did I misread, but even my more liberal guesses were vastly over estimating the cost of producing a blu ray disc (presumably these costs are for producing them without accounting for hardware, I don't see how one could accurately calculate the cost of an unknown amount of discs including the startup costs). I can't immediately find any source suggesting the cost of producing a USB keychain, though interestingly it apparently costs something like $8000 per year, per title to have the rights to distribute media on a blu ray disc (again, I have no indication of whether or not there is a similar cost for flash drives).

At any rate, I still maintain that, even if the cost if producing a single disc is comparable, that it is still expensive and there are no shortage of alternatives that would make more sense.

Startup costs aren't going to be an issue- each individual studio doesn't have it's own Blu-ray printing operation, they contract it out to somebody who produces Blu-rays 24/7.

 

[Dys]

A quick google search confirms that not only did I misread, but even my more liberal guesses were vastly over estimating the cost of producing a blu ray disc (presumably these costs are for producing them without accounting for hardware, I don't see how one could accurately calculate the cost of an unknown amount of discs including the startup costs). I can't immediately find any source suggesting the cost of producing a USB keychain, though interestingly it apparently costs something like $8000 per year, per title to have the rights to distribute media on a blu ray disc (again, I have no indication of whether or not there is a similar cost for flash drives).

At any rate, I still maintain that, even if the cost if producing a single disc is comparable, that it is still expensive and there are no shortage of alternatives that would make more sense.

Startup costs aren't going to be an issue- each individual studio doesn't have it's own Blu-ray printing operation, they contract it out to somebody who produces Blu-rays 24/7.

And such an operation would, presumably, be more costly than a 24/7 flash memory producing studio. Plus licensing fees.

 

[Mister Benoit]

There are currently 32GB SDHC cards out there which beats a 25GB single layer BD. Dual layer obviously holds 50Gb, but with flash memory becoming much more accessible, I don't see why the Xbox won't have Flash memory with Digital Distribution, plus a CD/DVD drive for the movie goers.

EDIT: Also found this info:
The Secure Digital Extended Capacity (SDXC) format was unveiled at CES 2009 (January 7?10, 2009). The maximum capacity defined for SDXC cards is 2 TB (2048 GB). The SDcard association selected Microsoft's proprietary exFAT file system in the official SDXC specification.

Proprietary Microsoft memory the size of an SD card that can hold 2TB? This HAS to be the way of physical distribution for Xbox. If not, then I don't know what they are thinking.

That's really really awesome regardless of what comes out of it.

The future is bright indeed.

 

[Echo136]

Its likely they'll either go BluRay which still has a lot of life in it (LA Noire can fit on one disk) or try to start up another format war, which they might hilariously lose again.

 

[Ozzythecat]

In all seriousness Microsoft will probably try to "develop" a new platform or just use BD's it's tough to say. Though I like the idea of them using SDHC cards but I feel the chance for piracy would be huge.

Actually, stopping piracy would be easier if they were using some kind of ROM- they could develop a proprietary card (nothing complicated, just have it use a different pin configuration), patent it, and not let anyone sell blank copies. They could try to do the same with Blu-ray- they don't need to develop a new technology, just modify the existing one enough so that the system won't run standard Blu-ray discs.

That's why I put develop in quotations, they wouldn't be starting from scratch but technically they'd be developing something I did it purely for semantics.

I'm also aware that making custom carts to thwart pirates isn't that difficult. However it still makes piracy quite the viable option, Nintendo has tried to stop the sale of flash carts but you can find quite a few Chinese online merchants with tons of them for sale.

 

[Conza]

If not Blu-ray? Seriously? They'd be shooting themselves not only in the foot, but in the chest, arm, leg and head if they didn't chose Blu-ray *reads OP*

I'm going to assume the next xbox won't have blu-ray..it probably won't...They're even trying to squeeze out a last drop of life with
the incoming May firmware update that gives a 15 percent-ish boost to disc space for their games.

If not blu, What are they planning on doing? Maybe trying to make their own new format just for the new console? Staying with DVDs even? Thoughts?

Firstly, why would you make that assumption?

Secondly that's impossible, unless you're describing some sort of new format for save files on the hard drive, physically increasing the size of a compact disc is not possible by any means, let alone a mere firmware update, the only way to increase game space on a disc, is to do some sort of dual layering (eg. 4.7GB single layer DVD = 9.4GB dual layer DVD), which only fixes future discs, or to upgrade formats to Blu-Ray, which would be far too expensive - even if they released an external Blu-ray drive (like thier HD DVD from my understanding), people would be loathed to buy a new add-on just to be able to read certain types of games.

Multiple disks are a far more simpler alternative stop gap, untill their next console - which must use Blu-ray discs.

Their own new format? Their software developers, not manufacturers. The big power companies in Japan have been driving new formats for decades, Sony invented the Compact Disc in the 70s, DVDs emerged in the late 90s thanks goes mostly to Toshiba, Sony also invented Blu-ray discs.

Options that exists in an alternate realities, and for the consoles, after these ones include these

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein-coated_disc

Those two discs, now they are cool, they make Blu-ray look like a 5 1/2 inch floppy drive by comparison.

 

[Ozzythecat]

There are currently 32GB SDHC cards out there which beats a 25GB single layer BD. Dual layer obviously holds 50Gb, but with flash memory becoming much more accessible, I don't see why the Xbox won't have Flash memory with Digital Distribution, plus a CD/DVD drive for the movie goers.

EDIT: Also found this info:
The Secure Digital Extended Capacity (SDXC) format was unveiled at CES 2009 (January 7?10, 2009). The maximum capacity defined for SDXC cards is 2 TB (2048 GB). The SDcard association selected Microsoft's proprietary exFAT file system in the official SDXC specification.

Proprietary Microsoft memory the size of an SD card that can hold 2TB? This HAS to be the way of physical distribution for Xbox. If not, then I don't know what they are thinking.

How much would a 2 TB SD Card cost? O_O

I feel it would be really unstable too... God knows my 32 GB card likes to just lose files here and there... Though that might be my device not sure.

 

[BrEnNo1023]

Digital distribution

This, all games will be downloaded in HD quality and stored on a large HDD

Yes. Because everybody has a high speed internet connection.

You are aware that around 40% of consoles are not hooked up to the internet, right?

Hm, well that's actually quite a big hurdle to overcome. There goes my theory of digital distrib too :S