It is my guess also that we will see a new console in 2012. To me it's really obvious. They have been thinking about a new console as soon as they launched the Wii. They need all that development and research time, so that by the time they have it all figured out, the Wii will have made all the sales that Nintendo was intending to make, and be ready for when the sales slow down and eventually halt. Also, No one is allowed to say anything about it so when Fils-Aimes denies anything, that's just him doing his job. you have to take "no"'s like that with a grain of salt.
Also, despite the fact that the Wii was launched around the same time as the 360 and ps3, i never considered it next-gen. simply because next-gen really refers to video quality and the Wii is still in the stone age only supporting 480p. So they NEED a new console out that will actually properly compete, at least to a much more decent degree than the Wii is now. HD is now a standard and Nintendo can't stick their head in the sand any longer, pretending that it doesn't matter.
I also think they need to invent a new (Successfully Appealing) Nintendo Hero, and have it's debut with the new HD console. If they did that, they would have a smash hit and it will sell like hot cakes on crack.
Anyway, That's what makes sense to me at least.