WonkyWarmaiden said:
Empire.
And third, there is a huge difference between the Empire and the Stormcloaks attitude towards the war, the Empire seemed to be scrambling to keep Tamriel as unified as they could so the Thalmor couldn't just sweep through with another war but the Stormcloaks really only ever cared about Skyrim.
Except, the Stormcloak quests don't really bear this out. The Stormcloaks, and Ulric in particular are aware that the Thalmor are the real enemy, but they can't be opposed while Skyrim's stuck under the weak, Thalmor-appeasing Empire. At the end of the civil war Ulirc says something like (paraphrasing) 'we've won, good, now we can prep properly for the real war, because the Thalmor are coming'.
As for The Empire. It died when it failed to crush the Thalmor when they first rose. Half the old Empire is gone even if Skyrim stays in. It's broken already, pure and simple, and would require another Tiber Septim to put it back together (which would be an
awesome TES VI). It doesn't really matter who rules in Skyrim if both sides are serious about rumbling with the Thalmor, as I'd expect a free Skyrim would still stand with Cyordil against the Elves. However, I did not get that impression from the Empire I saw in the game (and granted, I haven't played the Empire Civil War quests), they were very 'peace in our time' when it came to the Thalmor.