Poll: Will China Replace the US as the World's Leading Superpower?

[James Crook]

China? Supplanting the United States? HA!
I've lived there, and I say to you: not before they make another revolution and kick out their oppressive, suppressive, dictatorial government. Blocking out sites like YouTube, MySpace, Facebook, and even censoring Google, is certainly a very bad move. Shit will hit the fan, I say.

 

[FaithorFire]

What do ya'll think? If not, then which country (if any) will? China, India, Brazil, Germany and Russia have all been speculated to dethrone the US. So what do you think?

The Chinese will definitely grow larger than the US, but in terms of per-capita wealth and technological progress, NO the Chinese will never surpass the US, for one simple reason. Despite their free-market favoring behavior lately, the Chinese government is still Communist. It is still a centrally planned economy, and it is as impossible for a centrally planned economy to totally surpass a free market economy as it for the rules of arithmetic to change.

 

[Condor219]

What do you mean by will replace? America is 20 TRILLION dollars in debt and owe almost 1 trillion to both China and Japan. Pretty sure China has America's nuts in a vise.

Last I checked it was just over $14 trillion [http://www.usdebtclock.org].

And personally, I think we'll be out of debt in 20 years. Hell of a long time, but it'll come.

OT: As an economic superpower? China's already there. As a cultural one? Can't see it happening, for a few reasons.

1. China is linguistically in disarray. It has an astounding 292 languages [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_China] that actively exist in it. Even if Mandarin is spoken in 70 percent of the country, 30% of China is a huge sum of people.

2. Culturally, China isn't as currently rich as the US (feel free to debate me). Their past is beautiful and storied, but that doesn't apply to today. The US has Basketball, Baseball, American Football, Jazz and Country music, etc. that are unique to it, and relevant today. Even looking at our media (music, movies, gaming) we have a much larger arm of control than they do.

Oh, and then there's the whole "The US has a GDP average ten times that of China's", and given the political situation in China, I can't see that changing.

 

[Comieman]

Heh definitely not Russia, considering that the Russian Government cares more about making money from oil and convincing people to immigrate out of Russia.

China, on the other hand, has more than enough manpower, and their economy is strong, with all the money US owes to them.

 

[AngryFrenchCanadian]

NEW RULE: People with 10 posts don't get to make their own thread until they're up to fifty, and the RP section doesn't count.

In other news: No, China isn't going to supplant the U.S.

I like this, can this be a forum rule? And no Polls until 100 posts? It would be so nice...

OT: I think that the US and China will be competing much less subtly come 2050 but I don't think the US will be completely suplanted.

I think in 2066 China will attack Alaska for its oil.

In 2072 the US will fully annex Canada

And on October 23, 2077...nuclear war.

Spoiler

I wonder how many will understand this little referential timeline of mine

I'm standing RIGHT HERE, DUDE!

Shhhh... I'm wondering how many people like mister ten posts here will get the reference. Besides, obviously you would get it. You're FalloutJack!

Come on. Now you're making it too obvious.

 

[Jonabob87]

China. Richest country in the world, and will just keep getting richer if their economy stays the way it is.

But then...it shares a border with Russia, and we all know how insane Russia is. They could invade...

 

[AngryFrenchCanadian]

Not to mention that even though the U.S. is in huge debt, what are the other countries going to do about it? They can't (fortunately or unfortunately depending on who you are) just take the money they are owed by force.

You know, "If someone owes you 100$ you have power over them, but if he owes you one million dollars he has power over you." or something along those lines.

 

[Griffolion]

China's economy relies heavily on coal.

Coal runs out.

When that happens, China's buggered.

America will still be going strong on orphan tears and distilled patriotism.

 

[muhitatsu]

This is a really complicated topic, but there are a few things I wanted to get off my chest.

I don't think the US will be the top superpower come that time because so much of the economy relies on oil manufacture and import. By that time, the oil will be gone. Also, most big American companies tend to be short sighted and inwardly focused, which always spells doom over the long term.

China could potentially fill the spot, if it wasn't for the fact that the government can't actually control business interests through law. Essentially, Chinese economics is less about an entire country's gross domestic product, and more about a few very wealthy businessmen within the country, and almost the entire rest of the country is poor. If the mass Chinese population revolts due to the sheer amount of pollution going into the water and air (like I imagine they will) and goes green totally, than they probably could become the major world power, just based on population size alone.

India has a huge amount of potential, especially due to the size of it's population, but the country's lack of geography is a bit of a hindrance.

Feel free to correct me with facts, but NOT opinions. I learned about this stuff in college, but it may be out of date. I just don't want any Faux and Friends stuff.

 

[AngryFrenchCanadian]

This is a really complicated topic, but there are a few things I wanted to get off my chest.

I don't think the US will be the top superpower come that time because so much of the economy relies on oil manufacture and import. By that time, the oil will be gone. Also, most big American companies tend to be short sighted and inwardly focused, which always spells doom over the long term.

China could potentially fill the spot, if it wasn't for the fact that the government can't actually control business interests through law. Essentially, Chinese economics is less about an entire country's gross domestic product, and more about a few very wealthy businessmen within the country, and almost the entire rest of the country is poor. If the mass Chinese population revolts due to the sheer amount of pollution going into the water and air (like I imagine they will) and goes green totally, than they probably could become the major world power, just based on population size alone.

India has a huge amount of potential, especially due to the size of it's population, but the country's lack of geography is a bit of a hindrance.

Feel free to correct me with facts, but NOT opinions. I learned about this stuff in college, but it may be out of date. I just don't want any Faux and Friends stuff.

Well, China's not gonna go green anytime soon, especially if it revolts. They lack the infrastructure and ethics to innovate, unlike the US. Innovation is what keeps a country afloat when the manufacturing industry goes out the window. Just look at Japan. Their debt is also astronomical (not to mention the recent disaster), but still, they'll be fine long-term because they can innovate.

China. Richest country in the world, and will just keep getting richer if their economy stays the way it is.

But then...it shares a border with Russia, and we all know how insane Russia is. They could invade...

Correction: second richest country (even though most of the population is still very poor) by a very good margin.

 

[Jakub324]

I'd say it could be any of those accept Germany. They're terrified of people thinking their Nazis again, and they're part of the EU, so they're crippled in that way.

Sorry, this website has made me a grammar nazi. Except.

You're right.

 

[Nexus4]

Brazil
Why?
Football...

 

[Demongeneral109]

I think its ineveitable the way its going currently with the US being in such massive debt and most of that debt is owned by China and at any point in time they can say "Pay up *****" and the US will basically be screwed. so unless the US pulls a big U-turn and gets out of debt in amazing fashion the power may shift to china.

Thats not really true, America and China are too closely connected economically right now for China to have an advantage against us. I would bet that China is just as worried about America's debt Crisis as Americans themselves right now.

 

[wilsontheterrible]

Something explodes and you didn't see anything coming on the radar before hand, then something is up there. At least until they invent the "stealth missile." As for Satellites and cruise missiles, you say that like China doesn't have any of its own. Missiles vs. Ships, Missiles win every time. Fire enough missiles at those ships (and China never builds anything for its military unless it's building "enough") and those ships are going to get busted up pretty badly. Besides, I don't know what shelling you're imagining. Today's naval firepower is focused on three things. Launching missiles, defending the carrier, and using the carrier's planes. If china can throw enough AAA at them, two of those aren't really going to happen.

When that something explodes its a pretty safe assumption that the plane that dropped it is already a few dozen miles away.

You keep assuming Chinese tech is even on par with that of the U.S. We've had missile interecept programs for our carrier groups since the early 90's that could take out their old hardware and it's been overhauled several times since then.

China has man power in spades but in terms of logistics, raw firepower, and the ability to get that firepower on target the U.S is decades ahead. No matter who started it China would be on the defensive from day one and between the two of them only the U.S has been battle tested.

China can defend itself but for only so long. In such a conflict I doubt the U.S wold give them the opportunity to use their vast army so we're looking at a long distance air and ordnance campaign and the U.S has more and better of both. Par for the course China wouldn't be stupid enough to try a land invasion either, the vast majority or all of their ships would be destroyed by the halfway mark and if they made it onto U.S soil they wouldn't get more than a few steps in.

 

[AngryFrenchCanadian]

A war will never happen.

 

[Torrasque]

wtf is India and Brazil doing on there?
EU has my vote. That is if they can sort out their shit and not break up...

 

[Kitteh]

I'm going to be honest. If China ever becomes more economically dominant than us, we'll probably invade them. I'm not saying I want an invasion, it's just the likely course of events. Americans like being on top.

*clears throat* In bed.

 

[Suijen]

The question is asking if China will fill the role that the US does in the world, a sort of global hegemon. China, in a historical sense and from what I gleam for the current leadership, does want a bigger say in the world, but has also been loathe to seek the same sort of global leadership that the US and the former USSR sought. In the end, the government and the people themselves are internally focused, and the Chinese government's expansion overseas is still tied to its interior development. China wouldn't be in Africa/Asia/Latin America and the United States if they didn't see them as pertinent to China's economic development.

I do not believe the China collapse theories, because these theories have all floundered. I remember when Gordon Chang boldly proclaimed the death of the Chinese financial system in 2006, and that has not flunked. As dumb as many CCP officials are, they've managed to stay two steps ahead of the game. Guess what China's predicted growth rate is for the next year (not the Chinese government's prediction, but Goldman Sach's).

The China collapse theory based on social unrest is more realistic, but the CCP also stays one step ahead of the game. For every idiotic blunder they do, there's a Zhu Rongji or a Wen Jiabao or a Bo Xilai to restore faith in a CCP leader. They have problems with corruption and inflation, but they have and still continue to be able to control it. Don't make the mistake of confusing China with North Africa.