Poll: Will China Replace the US as the World's Leading Superpower?
- Thread starter Dakinks
- Start date
Oh please, that's your challenge? I killed an entire restaurant with a single baked potato. I didn't even need to use dark magic!the spud said:
Tough to say as a lot can happen in 39 years, though if things keep going the way they are now, then probably China, unless they dun goof at some point.
The USA has just under 3 million members of the armed forces and reserves.Tanksie said:
10,000 tanks. 26,000 APCs and IFVs. (Where are you getting the those tank numbers?)
The strongest air force in the world.
A huge Navy.
A ridiculously huge defense budget.
The USA already has LASER weapons.
A huge under-trained army is no match for a smaller well trained army.
(Also, Brazil has a higher GDP per capita than China, and it is no small nation)
China has 2.2 million members of their formal armed forces. 0.8 million in reserve. The USA has 1.47 million members of their formal armed forces, 1.45 million in the reserve.Tanksie said:
With air superiority we could bomb the PLA to hell, and easily sink the PLAN. When we could have planes bombing China 24/7 it is not 'to small to bother a massive country like china'.
With better training, an all volunteer army, and better equipment the US Army could easily defeat the PLA in a one on one fight.
Our Navy is keeping nautical trade routes safe. (Yes, even China's) And our fleet of carriers and destroyers puts the PLAN's miniscule navy to shame. Even when they patrol the rest of the world.
We are very far from fucked.
(I am getting my numbers from the CIA world fact book, for the most part)
I want to say Brazil. The country is industrializing quite rapidly, has virtually unlimited natural resources, and two-thirds of the country remain to be explored. I don't know if any country can hold claim to be the leading superpower since pretty much everyone is suffering under debt, but you can expect Brazil to reach the same status as other Western nations soon.
we're like, dependent on china arent we? i mean, we get like 99% of everything from them.
im no expert but it seems like we've "sold out" to them...but idk, america looks like the cocky SOB of all the worlds nations (at least thats how were depicted in lots of things), so who knows what'll happen...im not a time machine or God, so i'll stop there.
im no expert but it seems like we've "sold out" to them...but idk, america looks like the cocky SOB of all the worlds nations (at least thats how were depicted in lots of things), so who knows what'll happen...im not a time machine or God, so i'll stop there.
Erm...no, probably not. It's actually a wonder that China hasn't destroyed itself already. Their most beloved leader of the past century caused tens of millions of people to starve to death after making hilariously bad economic choices, declared war on all China's smart people, and caused a plague of locusts.
China's current advantages are largely from a massive population, a recently-tapped reserve of natural resources, and a government that doesn't care about the individuals of the former or the environment surrounding the latter. One of the main reasons they can still manage their population size is because the worst of their leaders have gotten untold millions of them killed before they could reproduce.
And you know what? I don't think China or America will be "the leading superpower" of the world. China can compensate for most of its problems with forced labor, and the US has a healthy balance of population, standard of living, and military power. And it doesn't even matter at that because both are quite invested in the survival of the other. You don't compete with your economic partners.
China's current advantages are largely from a massive population, a recently-tapped reserve of natural resources, and a government that doesn't care about the individuals of the former or the environment surrounding the latter. One of the main reasons they can still manage their population size is because the worst of their leaders have gotten untold millions of them killed before they could reproduce.
And you know what? I don't think China or America will be "the leading superpower" of the world. China can compensate for most of its problems with forced labor, and the US has a healthy balance of population, standard of living, and military power. And it doesn't even matter at that because both are quite invested in the survival of the other. You don't compete with your economic partners.
I wouldn't be surprised if China far surpasses US in GDP by 2050, but we (the US, that is) will still be the world police, for whatever that's worth. China's military is technologically inferior to us by far...they only developed their first aircraft carrier recently, and it was just a refurbished carrier from the old Soviet Union. I think their stealth aircraft tech was ripped from Russia too.
I imagine China getting pretty damn rich in the next ten years, though at a slower pace than the ridiculous 10% GDP YoY growth it's been having recently. Some internal pressure might force the government to raise the living standards of the poor, which might shift the cheap goods production market to SE Asia or maybe India instead. But militarily they won't be more than a regional power, which they already are anyway.
I imagine China getting pretty damn rich in the next ten years, though at a slower pace than the ridiculous 10% GDP YoY growth it's been having recently. Some internal pressure might force the government to raise the living standards of the poor, which might shift the cheap goods production market to SE Asia or maybe India instead. But militarily they won't be more than a regional power, which they already are anyway.
well, we represent a huge consumer base to them. And since they hold a lot of securities in US dollars, they need to make sure our currency doesn't collapse. So the dependence is somewhat mutualGeneral BrEeZy said:
It is unlikely that if the united states becomes less of a superpower, that it will A, fall, and that B, some one will surpass it, it is much more likely we will end up like the 19th century, with a bunch of powerful countries, but none particularly more powerfully than the other. We are already heading that way now.Dakinks said:
If one country was to surpase the US though, it would Definitally not be Brazil Russia, or Germany, those countries have either come and gone, or simply have too many problems weighing them down. If anything it would be India, India used to be a huge superpower, until Westerners came a long and started cutting it up, India started to become poor mainly due to the British controll over the place and exploitation, India is only now recovering and with a huge population, and booming industry and no signs of slowing it will likely hit huge. India has the right historical mentality, cultural Identity, and peacefulness as well as offensiveness to be as possible contender for world power, Unlike China, which has a whole host of cultural and historical problems preventing it from surpassing the US, or at least maintaining that state for very long.
See!! ya learn somethin' new every day! thanks for the heads-up, i'll remember that.dyre said:
No shot only because the US spends so much on national defense, we'll stay at the top. Our spending is in the hundreds for new weapons and everything. Sure China may have a larger army, but that doesn't mean anything if the weapons aren't nearly as well developed. And with the US spending so much for defense we better stay at the top as leading power. Or else I'll be very disappointed.
There exists the possibility that both the US, China and Russia could be super powers - super power isn't an exclusive title - for 40 or so years there were two super powers, the USA and USSR.
Frankly, I think we are headed towards a multipolar world in which the status of "Superpower" won't even mean much. There's no doubt that, barring a major disaster, China is here to stay. But so is the USA. China's economy is rapidly growing, and with careful management it will continue to grow reasonably well - but as an economy gets bigger, growth gets more and more difficult to sustain. China's economic growth doesn't have to stop, but it will slow down in the future.
Personally I think China has already become an economic superpower. In military terms, it's quite strong, but still far behind the US - the Chinese have virtually no blue-sea capable fleet, although they are starting to built Aircraft carriers now, they won't have a fleet that can challenge the US navy for at least 2 decades. By 2050, who knows what the Chinese military is capable of.
China also have problems they are facing: An aging population due to the one-child policy which will cause many problems for their economy later on. They have decided to revise the one child policy into the two-child policy, which will come into effect later next year, but the "damage" has been done - they are facing an upcoming shortage of young people, much like how the US is facing a crisis with its retiring Baby Boomers. China also has a critical problem with its inflation - the Yuan should be worth almost as much as the US dollar, but it isn't due to the Chinese government artificially keeping their currency low. This has a benefit in lowering production costs, but the downside is that inflation is rampant and wages aren't keeping pace with inflation - people in China are starting to get VERY ANGRY with the government over these price increases. The Chinese government can't keep their money low forever, their own people demand an end to the inflation.
There is no doubt that what the Chinese People (and to some extent, the Chinese government) have achieved over the past 20 years has been remarkable. Almost an economic miracle. They've worked damn hard to get to this point and they've made some very smart decisions. And there's nothing that prevents further economic success, and I wish China continued economic success. I think it's a good thing that hundreds of millions of people have better, middle-class-like lives, and I hope China can continue to lift more of its own people out of poverty.
But China is not some invincible Economic Juggernaut that is destined to rule the world. No country is, not even the US (as the 07-08 crisis made clear). People also made the same mistake with Japan - remember all that talk of "Japanese Overlords" in the 80's? I'm not saying China's economy will stagnate like Japan's (at least I sure hope it won't), but that is a very real possibility. They have just as many problems as the US - in particular their pollution and desertification problems are far worse.
So Here's what I think will happen by 2050:
1) China and the US will both be economic super powers. The US is in a rough patch now, but it's always been in rough patches - there's nothing to say that the US is on an inevitable decline. Maybe an inevitable decline in terms of relative power, but not actual power. The US still has the most advanced technology and universities and those tech industries won't vanish from the US overnight (although China will probably build companies to rival anything in the US.
2) Given China's reluctance to involve itself in any sort of overseas dispute, the US will be the one to have global roles in military affairs. China could start sending its army around the world to get its way, like the US does, but historically and culturally China has never done that, nor will its people accept that sort of role. Also, China's army is geared towards defence, not aggression (except against Taiwan - they're always prepared for aggression against Taiwan). I suspect China's strength will continue to grow, but for it to be mostly focused inward, not outward.
3) Brazil and Russia and India will become powers in and of themselves, but I find it unlikely that they will manage to match the economy of either the US or China. Russia's recent economic resurgence is mostly dependent on Oil - once they start running out (and they will) I'm not convinced that they have other economic sectors that can pick up the slack. India's economy is facing a lot of problems - there's a lot of instability, pollution and a crippling water shortage. They can't go the China path of economic development, because India is a democracy. They instead have to pursue the "high-tech" approach, which will work but takes a lot longer. Unlike China, the government can't mandate progress - it has to occur naturally, and although India is progressing, the rate of progress is extremely uneven, more so than in China. Some of my lab colleagues are from India - and they tell me there are places in India which are amazingly modern - but right next door, there are places which still look like they're stuck in the 18th century. They seem to really love the Private Sector, but they have nothing but scorn for the government's capability to solve any problem. I suspect that in time India too will become a super power - but it will probably take a little longer in their case. India are also struggling against Maoist rebels and religious strife.
Overall - I envision a multi-polar world. I don't think the US will fade - it will just become one power among many. And I think that's a good thing. China and India are on the rise - I think that's inevitable, and something we should welcome. How can we not welcome the fact that millions of people are living better lives and eating better food and contributing more to the human species? China and India will start churning out scientists, workers and artists and all of them will help solve some of the pressing problems.
Don't be paranoid - China and India have no real desire to supplant the US. China doesn't want to play Global-Supercop - it wants to leave that job to the Americans. Also, China's biggest current and future market is the USA - they don't want to see the US economy sink. India also does trade with the US and sends their kids to US universities.
I think by 2050, the world would have changed and that both the US and China and India will all get along. Wishful thinking on my part? Maybe. But that's what I hope happens.
Frankly, I think we are headed towards a multipolar world in which the status of "Superpower" won't even mean much. There's no doubt that, barring a major disaster, China is here to stay. But so is the USA. China's economy is rapidly growing, and with careful management it will continue to grow reasonably well - but as an economy gets bigger, growth gets more and more difficult to sustain. China's economic growth doesn't have to stop, but it will slow down in the future.
Personally I think China has already become an economic superpower. In military terms, it's quite strong, but still far behind the US - the Chinese have virtually no blue-sea capable fleet, although they are starting to built Aircraft carriers now, they won't have a fleet that can challenge the US navy for at least 2 decades. By 2050, who knows what the Chinese military is capable of.
China also have problems they are facing: An aging population due to the one-child policy which will cause many problems for their economy later on. They have decided to revise the one child policy into the two-child policy, which will come into effect later next year, but the "damage" has been done - they are facing an upcoming shortage of young people, much like how the US is facing a crisis with its retiring Baby Boomers. China also has a critical problem with its inflation - the Yuan should be worth almost as much as the US dollar, but it isn't due to the Chinese government artificially keeping their currency low. This has a benefit in lowering production costs, but the downside is that inflation is rampant and wages aren't keeping pace with inflation - people in China are starting to get VERY ANGRY with the government over these price increases. The Chinese government can't keep their money low forever, their own people demand an end to the inflation.
There is no doubt that what the Chinese People (and to some extent, the Chinese government) have achieved over the past 20 years has been remarkable. Almost an economic miracle. They've worked damn hard to get to this point and they've made some very smart decisions. And there's nothing that prevents further economic success, and I wish China continued economic success. I think it's a good thing that hundreds of millions of people have better, middle-class-like lives, and I hope China can continue to lift more of its own people out of poverty.
But China is not some invincible Economic Juggernaut that is destined to rule the world. No country is, not even the US (as the 07-08 crisis made clear). People also made the same mistake with Japan - remember all that talk of "Japanese Overlords" in the 80's? I'm not saying China's economy will stagnate like Japan's (at least I sure hope it won't), but that is a very real possibility. They have just as many problems as the US - in particular their pollution and desertification problems are far worse.
So Here's what I think will happen by 2050:
1) China and the US will both be economic super powers. The US is in a rough patch now, but it's always been in rough patches - there's nothing to say that the US is on an inevitable decline. Maybe an inevitable decline in terms of relative power, but not actual power. The US still has the most advanced technology and universities and those tech industries won't vanish from the US overnight (although China will probably build companies to rival anything in the US.
2) Given China's reluctance to involve itself in any sort of overseas dispute, the US will be the one to have global roles in military affairs. China could start sending its army around the world to get its way, like the US does, but historically and culturally China has never done that, nor will its people accept that sort of role. Also, China's army is geared towards defence, not aggression (except against Taiwan - they're always prepared for aggression against Taiwan). I suspect China's strength will continue to grow, but for it to be mostly focused inward, not outward.
3) Brazil and Russia and India will become powers in and of themselves, but I find it unlikely that they will manage to match the economy of either the US or China. Russia's recent economic resurgence is mostly dependent on Oil - once they start running out (and they will) I'm not convinced that they have other economic sectors that can pick up the slack. India's economy is facing a lot of problems - there's a lot of instability, pollution and a crippling water shortage. They can't go the China path of economic development, because India is a democracy. They instead have to pursue the "high-tech" approach, which will work but takes a lot longer. Unlike China, the government can't mandate progress - it has to occur naturally, and although India is progressing, the rate of progress is extremely uneven, more so than in China. Some of my lab colleagues are from India - and they tell me there are places in India which are amazingly modern - but right next door, there are places which still look like they're stuck in the 18th century. They seem to really love the Private Sector, but they have nothing but scorn for the government's capability to solve any problem. I suspect that in time India too will become a super power - but it will probably take a little longer in their case. India are also struggling against Maoist rebels and religious strife.
Overall - I envision a multi-polar world. I don't think the US will fade - it will just become one power among many. And I think that's a good thing. China and India are on the rise - I think that's inevitable, and something we should welcome. How can we not welcome the fact that millions of people are living better lives and eating better food and contributing more to the human species? China and India will start churning out scientists, workers and artists and all of them will help solve some of the pressing problems.
Don't be paranoid - China and India have no real desire to supplant the US. China doesn't want to play Global-Supercop - it wants to leave that job to the Americans. Also, China's biggest current and future market is the USA - they don't want to see the US economy sink. India also does trade with the US and sends their kids to US universities.
I think by 2050, the world would have changed and that both the US and China and India will all get along. Wishful thinking on my part? Maybe. But that's what I hope happens.
One Hit Noob said:
wow, really?Tanksie said:
"also usa lasers are used for shooting mortar rounds, chinas has this as well but they are expanding to moree star warsy stuff."
I wasn't aware lasers shot mortar rounds, as the definition of a laser is
"a device that produces a nearly parallel, nearly monochromatic, and coherent beam of light by exciting atoms to a higher energy level and causing them to radiate their energy in phase." Light can also be switched out with UV light, and some other parts of the spectrum
Clearly they don't shoot out mortar rounds, or maybe you meant that the shot the rounds themselves? well, that wouldn't make any sense, the US army uses these lasers to shoot down MISSILES and military VEHICLES. Also what do you mean "star warsy stuff" like laser pistols? you do realize first, the amount of heat that would create, it would burn through the person holding the weapon with out the proper coolant, and even then the thing would be unwieldy due to its size, and besides every country and their dog is developing more portable infantry size lasers, China isn't the only one.
The smallest one in US hands that can be shown publicly is about 10-20 feet long, if it is going to be carried around by itself, and not in a vehicle.