Poll: Will China Replace the US as the World's Leading Superpower?

[Suijen]

The question is asking if China will fill the role that the US does in the world, a sort of global hegemon. China, in a historical sense and from what I gleam for the current leadership, does want a bigger say in the world, but has also been loathe to seek the same sort of global leadership that the US and the former USSR sought. In the end, the government and the people themselves are internally focused, and the Chinese government's expansion overseas is still tied to its interior development. China wouldn't be in Africa/Asia/Latin America and the United States if they didn't see them as pertinent to China's economic development.

I do not believe the China collapse theories, because these theories have all floundered. I remember when Gordon Chang boldly proclaimed the death of the Chinese financial system in 2006, and that has not flunked. As dumb as many CCP officials are, they've managed to stay two steps ahead of the game. Guess what China's predicted growth rate is for the next year (not the Chinese government's prediction, but Goldman Sach's).

The China collapse theory based on social unrest is more realistic, but the CCP also stays one step ahead of the game. For every idiotic blunder they do, there's a Zhu Rongji or a Wen Jiabao or a Bo Xilai to restore faith in a CCP leader. They have problems with corruption and inflation, but they have and still continue to be able to control it. Don't make the mistake of confusing China with North Africa.

 

[Zykon TheLich]

Who knows,

 

[richd213]

the only reason we dont own north Korea is because we didnt want to piss off china trust me if we didnt give a shit i give it 5 years before we could beat china into surrendering.what doesnt seem to get through to people is china doesnt have very many solders what they have are alot of conscripts which in a war with any western country would be almost useless.

But the USA did piss off china by crossing the Yalu River. Then the Chinese conscript army came into korea and beat them back to the 38th Parallel. SO much for conscripts being naff, eh?

Despite that I highly doubt that the US would be able to initiate a war with China after it loses economic superiority as the bloated military budget would (should) be one of the first things to be cut.

 

[Suijen]

They pissed off China by blocking off the Taiwan Straits first. Then they pissed off China again by crossing the 38th parallel.

 

[Sandernista]

Why brazil? yeh it trades alot but its economy isn't worth the house i live in.
ps china is already the world superpower.

USA has less money and about 1/4 of the military power.

Brazil's economy is growing extremely rapidly.

Chinese citizens are extremely poor, and have a hugely lower standard of living.

The USA has more military power than most of the world combined.

You are wrong in so many ways.

yes brazils economy is growing, but rapid growth leads to early rescission so often.

ok heres a taste of how wrong you are about the military part.

the us has 5000 main battle tanks. thats a few alright.
but...

china has 8000 and 11000 light tanks, yes 19000 and they are no push overs they upgrade soviet t-54s with explosive reactive armor and anti tank missiles.

also the peoples liberation army has 3 million members.

also they are trying to make laser weapons. yes fuckin LASERS.

how does foot taste?

The USA has just under 3 million members of the armed forces and reserves.

10,000 tanks. 26,000 APCs and IFVs. (Where are you getting the those tank numbers?)

The strongest air force in the world.

A huge Navy.

A ridiculously huge defense budget.

The USA already has LASER weapons.

A huge under-trained army is no match for a smaller well trained army.

(Also, Brazil has a higher GDP per capita than China, and it is no small nation)

Wikipedia is not exactly a good source...

also i didnt mention chinas reserves, so your comparison is inaccurate.

also usa lasers are used for shooting mortar rounds, chinas has this as well but they are expanding to moree star warsy stuff.

ALSO the pla's 4 month training system is excellent.

the usas regular army contains 1/2 a million soldiers. where are you getting YOUR numbers?

also the us has 6000 main battle tanks. this is confirmed.


so even with you better air force (which is to small to bother a massive country like china) and larger navy(which is scattered across the globe because the usa cant keep there fucking selves to them selves) YOUR FUCKED!

China has 2.2 million members of their formal armed forces. 0.8 million in reserve. The USA has 1.47 million members of their formal armed forces, 1.45 million in the reserve.

With air superiority we could bomb the PLA to hell, and easily sink the PLAN. When we could have planes bombing China 24/7 it is not 'to small to bother a massive country like china'.

With better training, an all volunteer army, and better equipment the US Army could easily defeat the PLA in a one on one fight.

Our Navy is keeping nautical trade routes safe. (Yes, even China's) And our fleet of carriers and destroyers puts the PLAN's miniscule navy to shame. Even when they patrol the rest of the world.

We are very far from fucked.

(I am getting my numbers from the CIA world fact book, for the most part)

a much better source than Wikipedia but a bit dated(though not much) and bias and a bit patchy, but still pretty good. also chinas groud to air missiles(another thing they have more of than you) would keep the pla high and dry.

Old Soviet missiles don't scare me.

Remember we have the nuclear arsenal to wipe out the entire world. You better hope we don't go to war with China.

 

[FaithorFire]

What do ya'll think? If not, then which country (if any) will? China, India, Brazil, Germany and Russia have all been speculated to dethrone the US. So what do you think?

The Chinese will definitely grow larger than the US, but in terms of per-capita wealth and technological progress, NO the Chinese will never surpass the US, for one simple reason. Despite their free-market favoring behavior lately, the Chinese government is still Communist. It is still a centrally planned economy, and it is as impossible for a centrally planned economy to totally surpass a free market economy as it for the rules of arithmetic to change.

Yeah cuz it didn't happen that one time with that one country, so logically, it can NEVER HAPPEN EVER!!!

That, or you're making statistically unsupportable assumptions with a sample size of one.

Sorry, but the scientific process has proven to be relevant here, and you kinda forgot it exists for a second there. So far there have been exactly how many centrally planned economies that embrace free market aspects economically and now have much of the "free world" dependent on its success?

You go so far out of your way to be insulting, that I'm not totally sure what you're even saying, but I'll try anyway to answer. Right now the Chinese are trying an experimental economic system, you're right. But even Chinese economists who've been trained in actual economics (as opposed to communist economics) recognize that China's greatest obstacle to dominance is a staggering lack of ingenuity. (According to a half dozen Chinese born and raised professors I've completed my degree with at UC Denver). The Chinese have great numbers, and resources, but with the centrally planned structure still in place (Where "private" firms operate on their own but obey all orders from Beijing) there will never be an environment to foster true, transformative, entrepreneurship in China. The evidence that Central Planning/Socialism creates only inefficiency and later destruction has been chronicled within the entire history of the world in the 20th century.
The Chinese economy, as it exists now, has a natural barrier to face. The peak of technology (and therefore efficiency, productivity, and speed of market adaptation) will come when the Chinese have stolen or bought the best technology developed by others.
Only Free Market economies can create new technology on an aggregate scale. Unless China becomes FULLY free, they will not surpass the US. And if China ever becomes free then I'll be proud to accept them as a legitimate super power.

 

[manaman]

Well, first of all, I don't really think any country is "the world's leading super-power". However China is probably the most important nation at the moment, simply because they produce everything. I don't think the US is the richest anymore, but even if it were, it wouldn't matter if there wasn't anything to trade.

The US is the richest, by nearly 50% of China's GDP over again. The US is op by China's (#2 economy) and Japan's (#3 economy) added up, plus a little. As for trade, well technology and entertainment are major productions of the US, and even falling behind in those the US has massive reserves of some very important raw materials (renewable ones like food and trees foremost among those). I think you would be quite shocked to learn just how much of the worlds food is grown in the US.

The US has about the forth highest per capita GDP as well (all those with higher GDP per capita have populations less the 1.5 million, and fill niche roles in the economies of larger nations next to them - like how New York would have a massive per capita GDP if the city was its own country) so it isn't a large GDP simply due to a large number of citizens (312 million by the way).

The US could easily trudge along as a massive economic powerhouse well into the future, especially since it has a growing population (actually rare among developed countries) and room, plus resources, to expand.

 

[Loner Jo Jo]

Eh, who knows? People thought that Japan would "dethrone" the US in the 80s because their economy was booming, and that never happened. Yeah, sure Japan is a bigger player today than it once was, but it's not a superpower.

And really, so what if China does become the next super power? It doesn't mean the US will fall to shambles. It doesn't mean there will be an invasion. Little will change when it comes to daily lives.

My best theory, yes, the US will no longer be a super power in the next few decades. However, I don't think there will be another super power. The age of the superpower nation is gone as we are far to interdependent for one country to dominate. Sure, China is strong now, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a major revolution there shortly. The people in the cities work in horrific conditions. The people in the countryside live in medieval communities. There have been several major disasters to hit China in recent years, and the idea of the "Mandate of Heaven" still has some sway over the mindset of the populous. I don't know if a revolution would be successful, but I think it's going to happen by 2050.

 

[ecoho]

the only reason we dont own north Korea is because we didnt want to piss off china trust me if we didnt give a shit i give it 5 years before we could beat china into surrendering.what doesnt seem to get through to people is china doesnt have very many solders what they have are alot of conscripts which in a war with any western country would be almost useless.

But the USA did piss off china by crossing the Yalu River. Then the Chinese conscript army came into korea and beat them back to the 38th Parallel. SO much for conscripts being naff, eh?

Despite that I highly doubt that the US would be able to initiate a war with China after it loses economic superiority as the bloated military budget would (should) be one of the first things to be cut.

no we retreated because our solders were told not to engage the Chinese at all costs plus it also didnt help that it was the COLD WAR and if we had fought the Chinese we would have been at war with the USR which would mean nuclear war. so yeah i hope youve learned somthing. oh and as to our economy even in the state it is now we can and would be able to prosecute two wars and one trouble spot the size of France at one time. Trsut me i used to be logistics in the military.

 

[The-Epicly-Named-Man]

Well, first of all, I don't really think any country is "the world's leading super-power". However China is probably the most important nation at the moment, simply because they produce everything. I don't think the US is the richest anymore, but even if it were, it wouldn't matter if there wasn't anything to trade.

The US is the richest, by nearly 50% of China's GDP over again. The US is on too by China (#2 economy) and Japan(#3 economy) added up, plus a little. As for trade, well technology and entertainment are major productions of the US, and even fooling behind in those the use has massive reserves of some very important raw materials (renewable ones like food and trees foremost among those). I think you would be quite shocked to learn just how much of the worlds food is grown in the US.

The US has about the fouth highest per capita GDP as well (all those with higher GDP per capita have populations less the 1.5 million, and fill niche roles in the economies of larger nations next to them - like how New York would have a massive per capita GDP if the city was its own country) so it isn't a large GDP simply due to a large number of citizens (312 million by the way).

The US could easily trudge along as a massive economic powerhouse well into the future, especially since it has a growing population (actually rare among developed countries) and room plus resources to expand.

Sorry, I don't know much about the US economy. I suppose I should give some context, I live in Europe and the majority of electrical goods I own are produced in China, most of the rest are from Japan, while any fresh foods are from here. So I probably shouldn't have said anything but that was just how it seemed to me.

 

[imnot]

My new island nation, Potatolassia, shall rule the entire world by 2050 through a combination of space lazers and genetic supersoldiers. We shall have an army of robocops. Applications welcome.

APPLICATION FORM

Name:Chris
Skills;Macing thing died, grommer

I have a job plzplzplz

OT: THey will and proberly already are.

 

[the spud]

My new island nation, Potatolassia, shall rule the entire world by 2050 through a combination of space lazers and genetic supersoldiers. We shall have an army of robocops. Applications welcome.

APPLICATION FORM

Name:Chris
Skills;Macing thing died, grommer

I have a job plzplzplz

OT: THey will and proberly already are.

Kill at least 10 people with a potato and your in (Extra points for creativity).

 

[Continuity]

Well clearly the eternal Empire of Great Britain will be the leading world super power in 2050....


What?

Seriously though, China isn't becoming #1 superpower anytime soon. Sure they have a strong economy and sure their finances are impressive... but these things can change in a flash, they are not generating any internal wealth, it all comes from trading with the west. The important facts are that we are shipping out low value work to them because basically its too menial for us to bother with at our level of education, i..e clothes and good manufacture. The technical work and high precision engineering is still seated in the west.

tbh though the whole concept of a superpower is somewhat outdated, we are a global economy now, all so closely interlinked and interdependent that if one country on one side of the world sneezes, the countries on the other side of the world wipe their noses.

 

[Suijen]

The "But can China innovate in a society with terrible IP and no true property rights?" question is pretty old.

We know this argument holds little historical basis, as China throughout history has been dynastic, and the emperors of the old did not give a damn about property rights and IP, and yet China still managed to innovate. Not to mention that the USSR, a power that was even more closed and restricted than China, managed to produce major breakthroughs in science and technology, and has their fair share of Nobel peace prize winners.

From a comparative perspective, I would say the reason China hasn't innovated yet is because they're not really past the manufacturing stage of development. It's kind of silly to assume that China will either reinvent the wheel or suddenly jump ship to a higher level of development.

The IP protection has some basis, but in general, China's IP enforcement is getting better (though rather slowly). As China increases its patents and media industry, they're going to demand protection from the government also.

I suppose the biggest impediment would be the structure of how research is conducted in China, in which political officers approve grants/projects rather than experts doing the decision making process. This is the frequent criticism that Chinese professors have towards the Chinese system. In contrast, however, the government has been throwing wads of cash and protection towards Chinese companies to innovate, so you know they at least have government support to innovate in an environment that stifles innovation.

 

[David Hebda]

Why brazil? yeh it trades alot but its economy isn't worth the house i live in.
ps china is already the world superpower.

USA has less money and about 1/4 of the military power.

Brazil's economy is growing extremely rapidly.

Chinese citizens are extremely poor, and have a hugely lower standard of living.

The USA has more military power than most of the world combined.

You are wrong in so many ways.

yes brazils economy is growing, but rapid growth leads to early rescission so often.

ok heres a taste of how wrong you are about the military part.

the us has 5000 main battle tanks. thats a few alright.
but...

china has 8000 and 11000 light tanks, yes 19000 and they are no push overs they upgrade soviet t-54s with explosive reactive armor and anti tank missiles.

also the peoples liberation army has 3 million members.

also they are trying to make laser weapons. yes fuckin LASERS.

how does foot taste?

The USA has just under 3 million members of the armed forces and reserves.

10,000 tanks. 26,000 APCs and IFVs. (Where are you getting the those tank numbers?)

The strongest air force in the world.

A huge Navy.

A ridiculously huge defense budget.

The USA already has LASER weapons.

A huge under-trained army is no match for a smaller well trained army.

(Also, Brazil has a higher GDP per capita than China, and it is no small nation)

Wikipedia is not exactly a good source...

also i didnt mention chinas reserves, so your comparison is inaccurate.

also usa lasers are used for shooting mortar rounds, chinas has this as well but they are expanding to moree star warsy stuff.

ALSO the pla's 4 month training system is excellent.

the usas regular army contains 1/2 a million soldiers. where are you getting YOUR numbers?

also the us has 6000 main battle tanks. this is confirmed.


so even with you better air force (which is to small to bother a massive country like china) and larger navy(which is scattered across the globe because the usa cant keep there fucking selves to them selves) YOUR FUCKED!

If you are talking land invasion of the US there is still one huge problem for China, and no one is more aware of this then they are... its called the Ocean. Transporting troops and supplies across it is a logistical nightmare. And the entire way you are vulnerable to our Navy... Our Pacific Navy, because we have two... ya know because we can...

 

[richd213]

the only reason we dont own north Korea is because we didnt want to piss off china trust me if we didnt give a shit i give it 5 years before we could beat china into surrendering.what doesnt seem to get through to people is china doesnt have very many solders what they have are alot of conscripts which in a war with any western country would be almost useless.

But the USA did piss off china by crossing the Yalu River. Then the Chinese conscript army came into korea and beat them back to the 38th Parallel. SO much for conscripts being naff, eh?

Despite that I highly doubt that the US would be able to initiate a war with China after it loses economic superiority as the bloated military budget would (should) be one of the first things to be cut.

no we retreated because our solders were told not to engage the Chinese at all costs plus it also didnt help that it was the COLD WAR and if we had fought the Chinese we would have been at war with the USR which would mean nuclear war. so yeah i hope youve learned somthing. oh and as to our economy even in the state it is now we can and would be able to prosecute two wars and one trouble spot the size of France at one time. Trsut me i used to be logistics in the military.

I do history at university. Trust me.

 

[David Hebda]

Meanwhile the US is dependant on oil from a region that hates it and now knows the worst the US can do is invade and give them a shit government, and at best it can provide them with a target for insurgents. For all the billions the US spends on their military, what do they have? Expensive gear that still gets blown up. And what is their government full of? Rampant corruption by corporate interests. Only difference between China and the US is more people speak Mandarin in China. This decade...

Dude, don't go to Al Gore for political "facts" 98% of Oil in America comes from America (mostly off shore) and Canada only 1% comes from the Middle East. Also America has always had the majority of the worlds oil, we just don't tap it. A cross between long term goals (when the Middle East runs out and the rest of the world is boned we will be golden) and hippy conversationalist trying to stop us from drilling.

The whole "We invaded the middle east for oil" bull goes right out the window you actually look at the numbers.

 

[jameskillalot]

You mean that you still think the US is the superpower with it's economy? And their 14 trillion dollar debt, which they have to vote to increase to prevent another economic crash? The problem is that in an age where everyone has nuclear weaponry power is basically economic, the Chinese have a large population that is mostly labor based. They are the ones who lent the US so much of that money. And they bring in the most money as a country - soooo economically China certainly seems to be in the best bet for a "superpower".

 

[IkeGreil29]

Russia. They have more reserves of natural anything and the ability to exploit it. I hate to use games, especially very hypothetical/ridiculous ones as my defense, but Tom Clancy's Endwar is a good idea of what'll happen in the future. The US will never truly fall in the way other super powers have, simply because they have developed that position in a crucial state. I don't see them getting out of the hole they've gotten themselves into economically and politically anytime soon, so now's as good a time as ever to start looking for the new world leader. Maybe China will be the one, I dunno. But Russia seemed to me like the more logical choice due to how this is all shaping up... no one is exploiting their resources the way others are their own and selling it off, and so we will end up depending a lot on places like that that have what we're still looking for, even if it is only the third world (read: the majority of the world) that still depends on "primitive" fuels or technological equivalents.

 

[Jacco]

I think its ineveitable the way its going currently with the US being in such massive debt and most of that debt is owned by China and at any point in time they can say "Pay up *****" and the US will basically be screwed. so unless the US pulls a big U-turn and gets out of debt in amazing fashion the power may shift to china.

China and the United States are so entertwined economically that I would be very surprised if there is ever a split. China cannot simply say "pay up *****" because they depend on that interest money to fund their own government. In a way, we are keeping each other afloat.

Without China paying for the wars we are fighting, there would be no wars. Without the interest return on that funding, there are no Chinese social programs. Everything falls apart on both sides if one backs out.

Not to mention that they depend on our money to support their economy and we depend on their goods to support our lifestyle (and to an extent our economy).