Predictions of Biden's Presidency

[crimson5pheonix]

Joe Biden administration: president-elect assembles a diverse cabinet

Susan Rice is being considered for secretary of state and Michele Flournoy is reportedly top choice for defence secretary

www.theguardian.com

They better not pick Michele Flournoy

Opinion | Will Michele Flournoy Be the Angel of Death for the American Empire?

Purported to be among Joe Biden's top picks for Defense Secretary, the longtime supporter of endless war and limitless Pentagon budgets is exactly the wrong choice.

www.commondreams.org

Of course if you look her up now it's all puff pieces based around #feminism for picking one of the worst and most despicable excuses for a person possible.

 

[Agema]

Assuming we get there as I hope, I suspect the Biden years will be similar to the 2013-2016 Obama years: quietly improving things where he has the power to and tackling crises as they arise with competence. Leftists will be outraged he didn't do every single thing they demanded. Conservatives will claim he went on an apology tour and ruined the country regardless of merit. Most Americans won't really notice much change overall, but will at least be happy for a bit more calm for the first year and a bit before the mid-terms.

There won't be any major legislative achievements unless the Dems pull an upset in the two Georgia run-off elections. If that happens, A COVID Economic relief bill will be the test of whether the filibuster makes it past April. It'll pass, but most legislation will be fairly moderate and uncontroversial due to the total lack of room to negotiate between the left and right flanks of the party and the GOP likely insisting on total obstruction.

Most of the most substantive achievements will be either via quiet administrative rules (particularly if Warren and/or Sanders get their desired cabinet posts) or diplomatic wins.

Very likely. I think Biden will need to test the waters on how permissive the Republican Senate is going to be and my guess his centre-friendly cabinet is partly an attempt to coax some co-operation. However, the answer to that from the Senate is almost certainly that they'll be as insanely obstructive as they've been for the last 20-30 years. Then it's just going to be a case of what smaller stuff he can sneak by and see how the 2022 elections turns out.

 

[Tireseas]

If there's one thing I would hope left-of-center people would have noticed in the last few years is the power of appointments, administrative decisions, rulemaking, and enforcement. Like, that was the primary appeal of Warren to a lot of liberals like myself.

I don't know how the appointment process is going to go (we're still early in the transition) and between the GOP still in control of the Senate and likely a desire to "depoliticize" the cabinet, not having current congressional members would likely be easier to confirm. I would put money down that certain positions will be ran by certain power-brokers in the party (and, yes, Warren and Sanders are such power-brokers) to insure they are acceptable. National Security related positions (AG, State, Treasury, Defense) tend to be at the front of the line, particularly since 9/11, so it may be a while before we find out how this pans out.

So it'll end in Trump 2.0?

I'm going to go on record now as saying anyone who is trying to predict how 2024 plays out, whether the primaries or the general, is at best guessing and at worst projecting. We don't know what will happen in the interim and internal party politics remains an open question, as its unclear if Trump would run and unclear if someone else can consolidate his base in the same way he did even with his endorsement.

 

[gorfias]

Joe is accused of having a transition team full of anti labor exploiters...