Study Suggests Game Piracy May Be An Exaggerated Threat

[ThriKreen]

And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

Yeap, indie, mobile games seem to be a 1:10 legitirate ratio, if what I remember from articles from World of Goo and Game Dev Tycoon, vs. 5:1 as according to this report's.

But as I pointed out with their monitoring for only 3 months, I think the number could be much higher - as you're looking at FO:NV's 5 million legit copies over, what, ~2.5years? To 1 million pirate copies over 3 months. One would have to figure out the drop off rate and project it to estimate the ratio for the game's life to date. The charts from the report suggests it drops off by 50% after a month, but I don't know how that projects to later months (since we know there's always going to be someone, somewhere, downloading).

And they're only monitoring BT traffic, what about newsgroups, IRC, filesharing sites, unscrupulous stores selling the pirated copies? Granted those numbers are probably much smaller than BT, but it still adds up. Or trackers in foreign countries that they're unaware of? I remember reading an article how Company of Heroes had 800k unique patch downloads from China, yet Relic had not released the game there at all.

While I agree publishers grossly exaggerate the numbers, I also think it's still higher than this report suggests.

 

[Jamieson 90]

3 months isn't a lot of time to base any concrete research on, and I can't help but think that nearly a million people pirating Fallot: New Vegas, in only three months is a bad thing; hasn't Bioshock Infinite only sold like 3.5m copies so far since launch?

 

[Longstreet]

BWAHAHAHAHA

Sorry, had to get that out my system first.

But you are saying all the numbers that companies are tossing at us for the past years are complete bullshit? Who would have thought.

I love it when doodly-do-rights are proven wrong.

I love it even more when developers don;t got any excuses left for poor sales, but instead actually have to accept their game sucks.

Although i don't doubt this will be downplayed again.

 

[Vivi22]

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

Except that you're falling victim to the same fallacy Publishers like to trot out to guilt people when they complain about DRM: that a pirated copy is a lost sale. It's not true and never will be. Certainly not for all pirated copies anyway.

 

[RicoADF]

Is there ANYONE that didn't expect this? Seriously, ANYONE at all?

I'd wager the same people who always show up to any discussion on piracy with rabid cries of how "piracy is theft" and that anything but hatred and call for jail time against people for it makes you a "piracy" apologist/advocate.

Not really, I often say that piracy of a game/movie is wrong and theft except for a few reasons. Just because you conaider it theft doesn't mean you think prison is apropriate (I don't) or that online DRM is right.

 

[theultimateend]

http://monk.com.ua/uploads/images/00/00/03/2012/02/21/e7211f.jpg
You know who REALLY doesn't spend money on games due to piracy? The Devs themselves.

This image is the only correct response I feel.

Also surprised to see this dabbling around the Escapist given how viciously piracy is attacked. If its considered anything less than equal to child murder its unacceptably viewed by plenty of thread goers.

I don't do it myself but I've never seen the hubbub. I would like to turn writing into a second source of income and the thought of people torrenting things I make doesn't really factor in as a concern to me.

Video Cassettes, VHS, CDs, DVDs, MP3s and beyond have all been touted as the end of entertainment media.

And yet they continue to net record sales whenever they make anything even passibly good.

Strange.

 

[CardinalPiggles]

Well it really does make me sad to see numbers like that. Especially considering FO:NV didn't make phenomenal sales figures.

*sigh* Maybe the internet does need to be regulated better.

Hey pirates, you know what I do when I can't afford a game? I wait until I can afford it.

You know what I do when I know a game has shitty DRM that I can't deal with? I avoid that game.

 

[Da Orky Man]

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

1/6 copies being pirated does seem a bit on the high side, but when you have publishers claiming that the piracy rate is 93% [http://www.joystiq.com/2012/08/22/ubisoft-ceo-claims-93-95-piracy-rate-on-their-pc-products/], it does indicate that publishers may be pulling figures out of their arse.

 

[Vausch]

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

This isn't factoring in the people that pirated the game to see if it was what they wanted then paid for it, or if they were using it as a demo and wouldn't have bought it anyway because they didn't.

 

[lancar]

Just because something is making sense, is logical, has verifiable stats and historical data to prove it does not mean that it's true!

Piracy is killing us all, I tell you!

 

[Jumwa]

Not really, I often say that piracy of a game/movie is wrong and theft except for a few reasons. Just because you conaider it theft doesn't mean you think prison is apropriate (I don't) or that online DRM is right.

To be clear, "piracy" (what a silly term that is for copying files) is not theft. People are free to believe it's theft all they want, but it doesn't make it so. The courts do not consider if theft, so for all intents and purposes it is not. In fact, it's not even tried under the same court system as theft. "Piracy" is a civil matter, not a criminal matter.

 

[lSHaDoW-FoXl]

Hmm. That's mighty interesting. Now how in earth do I state my thoughts in a calm, rational way?

Reality blows. year after year it seems like all our smart minds do is squander their intelligence on proving facts we already actually know because selfish, greedy people with an agenda is wasting our time with a bunch of lies to further their own goals. If you legalize gay marriage, we'll have people marrying goats! If you let gay people adopt, the children will be mentally scarred! Fur farms are a magical, whimsical animal loving paradise where we hug and cuddle them all day! . You can tell we treat our cow's good because of how the meat tastes! Piracy is going to destroy the video game industry! Used game sales are as bad as piracy! Hey, you know, the best kind of beer is to have it cold! 2+2=5.

I'm only stating the obvious with this post, and I didn't have to waste 15 years of my life to prove it. So, I guess on the bright side I'm the one that's coming up on top from this. Here's to hoping that sooner rather than later, we get sick of these brain leeches and decide to get around to burning them before they actually cause some damage. I mean besides what they've done to our society, culture, and environment, of course.

 

[otakon17]

No, really? And they spent MONEY on this folks, way to blow that grant money instead on something useful like a goddamn cure for cancer or AIDS, how about a way to keep our fuel from running out in 50 years? What's next, a study on the affects of sleep? How about one on the strange sensation of "pain" and it's place in the world? Goddammit, I thought people getting this money were intelligent and inquisitive, not denser than a black hole...

Well, at least we have a "physical" rebuttal on whenever always online DRM and ridiculous codes come up for games from EA and Ubisoft.

 

[JohnnyDelRay]

You can state figures and research till the sky falls down, it's not going to stop companies from throwing more and more obnoxious DRM into their products. With crappy excuses like "it's sooo good to be able to update as soon as you start the game!"

Which can really be read as "we like to control how you play the game, so that even if you don't feel like updating, we can force you to! OR force you out. Oh and thanks for doing out beta testing, suckers!"

More to the topic though: yes, study proves what is already obvious. Not what publishers want you to believe though, who have their own take on things. Piracy and torrenting figures does NOT take into account the number of people who may have downloaded the game twice, or tried it and bought it, or were simply just pirates who wouldn't have bought it anyways. So the picture gets skewed even worse.

 

[Ikasury]

No, really? And they spent MONEY on this folks, way to blow that grant money instead on something useful like a goddamn cure for cancer or AIDS, how about a way to keep our fuel from running out in 50 years? What's next, a study on the affects of sleep? How about one on the strange sensation of "pain" and it's place in the world? Goddammit, I thought people getting this money were intelligent and inquisitive, not denser than a black hole...

Well, at least we have a "physical" rebuttal on whenever always online DRM and ridiculous codes come up for games from EA and Ubisoft.

because we HAVE to have those 'facts' pointed out to us... and lets think about it this way, not even a million copies pirated, with what a BILLION sold? or if not even that, several TIMES the ones pirated? really people, get over yourselves, if its worth the money people will buy it, if its not they'll rent/try it out, they honestly should be INVESTING in renting/pre-owned instead of killing it, if the internet has taught us anything is that people will buy things if they get interested in it, and the only way to do that is to put it out there, most profitably for free as ANYONE will get ANYTHING that is free... and if not, then someone out there will figure out how to get it for free cause that's just what humans do, solve problems XD

plus honestly i'd rather buy stuff on consoles then PCs, primarily because i won't be tempted to play with the 'console' function and debug and cheat the living hell out of it and have fun doing it... people grow out of their nerdy-game-hack phase eventually and just appreciate having something they can 'play' instead of 'play with' *snorts* but all this DRM bullshit has been making that primary 'play' part harder and harder, i mean REALLY?! punishing the people that actually PAY FOR THE GAME because of those that don't? that's like... i dunno, ENCOURAGING people to pirate because of the frustrations of corporate shenanigans XD

whatever i hope their 'numbers' make them happy and they quite whining... Dark Souls is looking awfully effective with its no DRM and low sales *snorts* hehehe...

 

[ItsNotRudy]

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

But I was one of those downloaders. I wanted to try the game out, then ended up playing it for 2 days straight and bought it + all DLCs off Steam, and not at the $15 price or some bs it sells for these days during a sale.

I'm certain there are more like me. Friend of mine lost the physical disk of Dragon Age: Origins during a movie, has found some items that came with it, now had to download it off torrent to play. Perhaps it's still buried in one of her boxes, perhaps not. But that's another number added to the list of downloads that aren't doing anything illegal.

 

[theultimateend]

It's almost as if people are willing to pay for things they enjoy.

Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it, after all.

 

[Something Amyss]

Anyone catch that they only monitored tracking for ... 3 months?

Yeah...

Three months most important for major releases, generally speaking, and given sales rates of games go down drsatically well before three months, it's hardly dishonest. Still, they both show their work and say it's not conclusive.

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

A quick look online indicates it closer to 7 million. 1/8 is still bad, but...Not as big. It's also smaller than the numbers that are supposed to scare us.

However, a slightly more disturbing number might be the ratio of PC sales to this, since it's PC piracy. Retail sales, (according to VG Chartz, best I could find) came in at .92 million, roughly equal to the number pirated here. Now, that doesn't count Steam sales, so the numbers are unlikely close to 1:1, but these are numbers we are not privy to and it hurts the transparency of these arguments from publishers.

 

[Atmos Duality]

Anyone catch that they only monitored tracking for ... 3 months?

Yeah...

We're never going to get a sufficiently strong sample statistic either way, given the nature of the matter and the bias on both sides.

On one hand, piracy in practice isn't the cancer that's killing the games industry, because if it were, it would have died bloody ages ago.

On the other hand, you cannot dismiss that it's trivially simple to perform, global in nature and the only major barrier for entry is internet speed. (well, and possibly language)

That said, I'm not inclined to believe the companies making megabucks when they claim that they're losing HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS in revenue each year, just because they took some raw torrent data at face value and multiplied it by retail price. (there are many, MANY ways that number can be fudged, but the assumption is that if the general public doesn't know that, then it's a solid claim)