Study Suggests Game Piracy May Be An Exaggerated Threat

[Jmp_man]

http://monk.com.ua/uploads/images/00/00/03/2012/02/21/e7211f.jpg
You know who REALLY doesn't spend money on games due to piracy? The Devs themselves.

This image is the only correct response I feel.

Also surprised to see this dabbling around the Escapist given how viciously piracy is attacked. If its considered anything less than equal to child murder its unacceptably viewed by plenty of thread goers.

I don't do it myself but I've never seen the hubbub. I would like to turn writing into a second source of income and the thought of people torrenting things I make doesn't really factor in as a concern to me.

Video Cassettes, VHS, CDs, DVDs, MP3s and beyond have all been touted as the end of entertainment media.

And yet they continue to net record sales whenever they make anything even passibly good.

Strange.

It's almost as if people are willing to pay for things they enjoy.

OH! HO! HO!
Look what I found:
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130513/11270823061/once-again-top-downloaders-are-top-spenders-according-to-uk-govt-study.shtml

This one's pretty nice study if I do say so my self.
No really check out the PDF:
http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/telecoms-research/online-copyright/deep-dive.pdf

 

[bkd69]

Really?

Kids, here's the deep, dark, secret about the computer game industry.

Nobody has ever been required to pay money for a computer game. Ever. All the purchases of computer games since the dawn of the industry, are, in reality, donations. There has never been a time when the vast, vast majority of gamers, have been unable to readily acquire illicit copies of just about any given game, though the difficulty may vary, depending on the obscurity or popularity of the title in question.

Electronic Arts, Activision, and the rest from the elder days, are all in business because gamers bought their games, despite having the option to get them for free.

 

[FalloutJack]

This is the sort of reason that I stand by the words of Neil Gaiman. The industry may not be suffering nearly as bad from piracy as others would claim, because - for instance - it can get the title to places where it hadn't been before and then other people buy. If it can happen with American Gods, it can happen with New Vegas.

 

[Bostur]

But as I pointed out with their monitoring for only 3 months, I think the number could be much higher - as you're looking at FO:NV's 5 million legit copies over, what, ~2.5years? To 1 million pirate copies over 3 months. One would have to figure out the drop off rate and project it to estimate the ratio for the game's life to date. The charts from the report suggests it drops off by 50% after a month, but I don't know how that projects to later months (since we know there's always going to be someone, somewhere, downloading).

Thats a fair point.

And they're only monitoring BT traffic, what about newsgroups, IRC, filesharing sites, unscrupulous stores selling the pirated copies? Granted those numbers are probably much smaller than BT, but it still adds up. Or trackers in foreign countries that they're unaware of? I remember reading an article how Company of Heroes had 800k unique patch downloads from China, yet Relic had not released the game there at all.

While I agree publishers grossly exaggerate the numbers, I also think it's still higher than this report suggests.

I think it would be impossible add up all copies across distribution methods. Even if you could, this would probably result in some copies being counted several times as they propagate between networks. And this begs another question, what really counts as a copy? If one could count every downloaded copy, how many of those actually gets installed by genuine users? I think this makes it impossible to make any sensible comparison between downloads and sales, but comparing pirated copies among different titles would be possible. For instance comparing how much Skyrim is copied compared to Fallout.

Absolute numbers makes very little sense and can be tweaked in any direction.

 

[Strazdas]

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

COnsidering the fact that msot publishers claim that for every paid copy there are 2-3 unpaid ones pirated, that means they were off by a margin of 12-18 times.
Though doubtful, the numbers in this study seems suspiciously small.

Partly it's pretty stupid we can't filter by region, because I think that eastern Europe might be responsible for 1/6th of that piracy rate (comparing game prices to how much people actually make a month in these countries... overinflated is understating the issue). Then, we've got China, which they probably couldn't monitor. And China has an absolutely MASSIVE piracy rate from what I know.

Then, we've got Russia, where game stores are barely existent, and even then barely carry anything besides CoD and BF (or other games that need to be played online).

I hoped that this study ran for a few years already and they were just wheeling out the results... turns out, no, it just ran 3 months. What I'm surprised by, though, is the incredible fact that CoD isn't the most pirated game. Strange when you think about it, really. What with CoD being one of the best-selling titles in the world, you'd expect it to get pirated a lot.

I live in eastern europe. a brand new game costs 1/5 of my monthly wage. and i dont get the minimum, almost double that.
It is believed that windows piracy is 95% pirated versions in China. could be similar for videogames.
DOnt know much about russia piracy except that legal games there are twice as cheap as eastern europe. sofware piracy is rampant there though, a lot of peopel i know visit russian sites where piracy is as easy as if i were to post a link to downlaod here. i dont speak russain so i couldnt do that even if i wanted.
COD main userbase is miltiplayer kiddies. you cant multiplayer pirated (well you can but you have to create your own server and give ips to those that want to play, no achievements unlockables and stuff like that). Most pirates do so for the singleplayer, and no wonder RPGs are leading piracy due to this.

But as I pointed out with their monitoring for only 3 months, I think the number could be much higher - as you're looking at FO:NV's 5 million legit copies over, what, ~2.5years? To 1 million pirate copies over 3 months. One would have to figure out the drop off rate and project it to estimate the ratio for the game's life to date. The charts from the report suggests it drops off by 50% after a month, but I don't know how that projects to later months (since we know there's always going to be someone, somewhere, downloading).

The dropoff rate is steep for pirated stuff as well. seeders die off and torrent dies within months unelss its a really popular one like FO:NV There arent many people downloading in the late stages.

And they're only monitoring BT traffic, what about newsgroups, IRC, filesharing sites, unscrupulous stores selling the pirated copies? Granted those numbers are probably much smaller than BT, but it still adds up. Or trackers in foreign countries that they're unaware of? I remember reading an article how Company of Heroes had 800k unique patch downloads from China, yet Relic had not released the game there at all.

Newsgroups, irc, filesharing sites are pretty much extinct for all intent and purpose and not suitable of sharing big files (game clients are big). they exist? yes. but not a significant nubmer to be worried about. FTP servers are probably second place, but those are mostly under lock and you cant just go in and test them.
There are plenty of small local trackers, however considering Piratebay boosts to take over 50% of worlds bittorrent traffic, and if they tested multiple public trackers or even tracker search engines they covered the big stuff.
When a company refuses to reloase a game in say china well its their own fault. different case if its chinas law system though. but its not like they lost money on it right?
Still data on major sites is better than no data at all?

I'd wager the same people who always show up to any discussion on piracy with rabid cries of how "piracy is theft" and that anything but hatred and call for jail time against people for it makes you a "piracy" apologist/advocate.

Not really, I often say that piracy of a game/movie is wrong and theft except for a few reasons. Just because you conaider it theft doesn't mean you think prison is apropriate (I don't) or that online DRM is right.

Well, Vault101 got a nice warning when she started the rage thread agasint piracy.

Well it really does make me sad to see numbers like that. Especially considering FO:NV didn't make phenomenal sales figures.

*sigh* Maybe the internet does need to be regulated better.

Hey pirates, you know what I do when I can't afford a game? I wait until I can afford it.

You know what I do when I know a game has shitty DRM that I can't deal with? I avoid that game.

And what do you do when a game ins unabvailable due to publishers stupidity? Or when you buy it and the DRM in it breaks preventing you from playing it? or when the company itself tells you that your copy is broken and says you should "just download a copy"?

Capcha:
little did he knew
touche capcha, touche

 

[PatrickXD]

I don't pirate games. I know some people that pirate games on a 'try before you buy' basis. I also know people that haven't spent a penny on games in the last decade. It's not black and white, and I imagine that if piracy were to spontaneously get snubbed, game companies like EA would see little change in income.

 

[heroicbob]

as much as i would like to agree that piracy doesn't have an impact I seem to remember games like demigod a game with no drm not even a CD key, having more pirates playing it than legitimate players

 

[CardinalPiggles]

And what do you do when a game ins unabvailable due to publishers stupidity?

Never happens to me. (I do understand that region locking is an issue for some countries).

Or when you buy it and the DRM in it breaks preventing you from playing it?

I research my games before I buy them, pretty simple.

or when the company itself tells you that your copy is broken and says you should "just download a copy"?

Never happens to me, but I'd say if the developer tells you to pirate it then it's probably justified. However I'm sure Obsidian never told a million people in that 3 month span to "just download a copy".

 

[Charli]

Studies say, studies are over-payed by business men and women to create these statistics so they can fearmonger developers into focusing the blame on consumers rather than their publishers and investors taking a bigger chunk of the pie than should be allowed.

But that's just SILLY.

 

[FallenMessiah88]

Yeah, piracy really isn't as big a threat as the industry makes it out to be. Still, this is a matter of principle. If EA sells something like 5 million copies of Dead Space 3, then they should receive profit for those 5 million copies. When it comes to things like this, I'm a capitalist with a capital C.

 

[O maestre]

No, really? And they spent MONEY on this folks, way to blow that grant money instead on something useful like a goddamn cure for cancer or AIDS, how about a way to keep our fuel from running out in 50 years? What's next, a study on the affects of sleep? How about one on the strange sensation of "pain" and it's place in the world? Goddammit, I thought people getting this money were intelligent and inquisitive, not denser than a black hole...

Well, at least we have a "physical" rebuttal on whenever always online DRM and ridiculous codes come up for games from EA and Ubisoft.

I am not sure if you are being sarcastic or not but just to clarify, the people who made that report are not scientists, engineers or doctors... they don't have the knowledge to even begin to research the things you mentioned. The real reason we have all these dumb studies is because the sociologists and their ilk don't have anything useful to do with their time, since them and a ton of social and humanities studies have no practical application, mind you I am not saying all of them, we need litigators and such.

If you want to talk about wasted research time, imagine how many scientists, engineers and doctors are working for shampoo or food companies creating just the right kind of candy, electronic gadget, fragrance or medicine to make you buy it instead of the competitors even when there is no difference between the products beyond the superficial, basically you have professional "pirates" who take an idea and modify it just enough so they can sell without getting sued. Now that is a brain drain, and research to actually better the human condition is often underfunded because there is no guarantee of and end product to sell.... Not that I am any better I fully intend to take one of those kinds of jobs when i am done with my education because it pays more.

EDIT: in fact if you look at the pdf none of the people involved except Kevin Bauer are from any department that actually has any deep technical application. One of them is from the humanities faculty lol! one of the useless educations I was talking about, and the other is from a similar informatics department at a... business school. These two literally have nothing else to do, because they do not have the skills. Kevin Bauer is the only one who would be actually able to solve a technical problem, the other two are just fluff.

 

[Strazdas]

And what do you do when a game ins unabvailable due to publishers stupidity?

Never happens to me. (I do understand that region locking is an issue for some countries).

Or when you buy it and the DRM in it breaks preventing you from playing it?

I research my games before I buy them, pretty simple.

or when the company itself tells you that your copy is broken and says you should "just download a copy"?

Never happens to me, but I'd say if the developer tells you to pirate it then it's probably justified. However I'm sure Obsidian never told a million people in that 3 month span to "just download a copy".

Im glad you never wanted a game that wasnt available on sale. i have. especially comes with the older titles that are out of print.

Research is not enough. Lets face it, at one point almost EVERY game used the CD check. now usually they worked fine. but there were many cases where it would not. the game would claim CD is not there even when it was. it essentially broke down due to DRM. you did buy the title, you started playing and then suddenly it stops working. can you download a crack to continue play? well, personalty you can. the game distributor told me so themselves when they told me to download a no-cd crack to solve the issue.

Im not saying that that a million pirates were legit reasons. im saying that maybe not every download fits into your module of "omg i want free game"....

 

[Aeshi]

No, really? And they spent MONEY on this folks, way to blow that grant money instead on something useful like a goddamn cure for cancer or AIDS,

Cancer/AIDS would just evolve a treatment-resistant version, and we all know that if a solution isn't 100% effective forever it's completely pointless, right?

 

[CardinalPiggles]

And what do you do when a game ins unabvailable due to publishers stupidity?

Never happens to me. (I do understand that region locking is an issue for some countries).

Or when you buy it and the DRM in it breaks preventing you from playing it?

I research my games before I buy them, pretty simple.

or when the company itself tells you that your copy is broken and says you should "just download a copy"?

Never happens to me, but I'd say if the developer tells you to pirate it then it's probably justified. However I'm sure Obsidian never told a million people in that 3 month span to "just download a copy".

Im glad you never wanted a game that wasnt available on sale. i have. especially comes with the older titles that are out of print.

Research is not enough. Lets face it, at one point almost EVERY game used the CD check. now usually they worked fine. but there were many cases where it would not. the game would claim CD is not there even when it was. it essentially broke down due to DRM. you did buy the title, you started playing and then suddenly it stops working. can you download a crack to continue play? well, personalty you can. the game distributor told me so themselves when they told me to download a no-cd crack to solve the issue.

Im not saying that that a million pirates were legit reasons. im saying that maybe not every download fits into your module of "omg i want free game"....

I fully understand that there are justifiable circumstances to which piracy is not morally wrong (like bullshit region locking or getting a hold of older games that simply aren't available anymore) but things like "I didn't like their DRM model" or "It was too expensive" just don't hold any water. And let's face it, the main the reason piracy even exists is because people are too lazy to earn enough money, or too cheap to pay for what they want. It's called piracy for a very good reason.

 

[maninahat]

"The most pirated title was Fallout: New Vegas, with 967,793 downloads. That's a lot, but the overall piracy rate still falls well below past reports."

So as I see it, there are nearly 1 million pirated copies of New Vegas, as opposed to the 5 million paid copies. Even if publishers did exaggerate the extent of piracy, 1/6 copies of Fallout going unpaid for sounds like something worth bitching about. I don't see it as ammo against publishers at all, seeing as how it basically puts a (big) number on pirated copies. And that's only considering mainstream games; aren't indie companies getting the worst piracy ratios?

Except that you're falling victim to the same fallacy Publishers like to trot out to guilt people when they complain about DRM: that a pirated copy is a lost sale. It's not true and never will be. Certainly not for all pirated copies anyway.

I think it is fair to assume that a sufficient number of those 1 million pirates would buy a game if there was no option to pirate it, and contrariwise, a substantial number of pirates won't ever buy the game, having already played it through for free. I think it is intellectually dishonest of people to act like this isn't the case.

This isn't even my main reason for disliking piracy. As far as I'm concerned, taking a product or a service from someone, without paying and without permission, is just plain theft. I say that, in spite of the point that copying doesn't deprive the owner of the original, and in spite of the legal definitions on copyright infringement. I still call it theft. Like sneaking in through the back door of the cinema, when you pirate, you aren't paying the provider what you owe them. Then they have the cheek to try and turn it around, blaming the big businesses for resorting to draconian DRM and copyright policies. Pirates are truly the most sanctimonious of scroungers.

 

[otakon17]

No, really? And they spent MONEY on this folks, way to blow that grant money instead on something useful like a goddamn cure for cancer or AIDS, how about a way to keep our fuel from running out in 50 years? What's next, a study on the affects of sleep? How about one on the strange sensation of "pain" and it's place in the world? Goddammit, I thought people getting this money were intelligent and inquisitive, not denser than a black hole...

Well, at least we have a "physical" rebuttal on whenever always online DRM and ridiculous codes come up for games from EA and Ubisoft.

I am not sure if you are being sarcastic or not but just to clarify, the people who made that report are not scientists, engineers or doctors... they don't have the knowledge to even begin to research the things you mentioned. The real reason we have all these dumb studies is because the sociologists and their ilk don't have anything useful to do with their time, since them and a ton of social and humanities studies have no practical application, mind you I am not saying all of them, we need litigators and such.

If you want to talk about wasted research time, imagine how many scientists, engineers and doctors are working for shampoo or food companies creating just the right kind of candy, electronic gadget, fragrance or medicine to make you buy it instead of the competitors even when there is no difference between the products beyond the superficial, basically you have professional "pirates" who take an idea and modify it just enough so they can sell without getting sued. Now that is a brain drain, and research to actually better the human condition is often underfunded because there is no guarantee of and end product to sell.... Not that I am any better I fully intend to take one of those kinds of jobs when i am done with my education because it pays more.

EDIT: in fact if you look at the pdf none of the people involved except Kevin Bauer are from any department that actually has any deep technical application. One of them is from the humanities faculty lol! one of the useless educations I was talking about, and the other is from a similar informatics department at a... business school. These two literally have nothing else to do, because they do not have the skills. Kevin Bauer is the only one who would be actually able to solve a technical problem, the other two are just fluff.

Yes, I was being sarcastic. But this study really did seem like a waste of time and money for something that nearly any of us here on the net could have deduced in a week.

 

[Your Fearless Captain]

Study shows water may be wet.

Cite your sources Mr. Scientist!

I'm suprised that nearly a million people downloaded New Vegas, that's a LOT. Although I can't help but think that a lot of those people downloaded it twice, because they thought all the bugs in the game were because of a bad file in the download or something.

I figured it would have been higher. After all, the Witcher 2 was pirated 4.5 million times.

 

[CriticalMiss]

Study shows water may be wet.

Cite your sources Mr. Scientist!

I'm suprised that nearly a million people downloaded New Vegas, that's a LOT. Although I can't help but think that a lot of those people downloaded it twice, because they thought all the bugs in the game were because of a bad file in the download or something.

I figured it would have been higher. After all, the Witcher 2 was pirated 4.5 million times.

Holy crap, 4.5 million!? Some games don't even sell half as much as that. The developers much be working some kind of wicked majicks to handle those numbers.

 

[heroicbob]

the idea that pirates wouldn't have bought the game pretty much goes out the window when they go out of their way to pirate the game and play it


but from the beginning I'm pretty sure that drm was always about limiting used copys of games and stopping people from installing games on multiple machines with piracy as a scapegoat

 

[Splitzi]

I don't think I will ever understand some people's stances on piracy. It just seems so... icky. I think that piracy affects sales less than publishers claim but far more than pirates claim. This is especially apparent with indie devs, whose games get pirated like crazy. It's not as awful as some people think but it sure seems pretty scummy. Everyone wants stuff for free these days.