The Democratic Primary is Upon Us! - Biden is the Presumptive Nominee

[SupahEwok]

I think the focus on electability is a mistake because A) it plays to Trump's few strengths (he loves a head-on collision that he can mock down), and B) it overlooks why Trump was elected in the first place. States didn't flip red on him because Hillary was a woman or because Trump had nuanced policy. Trump spoke and played to select fears that Democrats had allowed to fester in what they assumed were safe states for themselves. They want Trump out? Go back and assuage those fears and get those people back on your side, or at least undermine Trump's rhetoric that he's the one cleaning out the swamp and getting their jobs and prosperity back. All the anti-Trump rabbling does is strengthen him in the eyes of those voters that made the crucial states swing for him last election. I've been blaming the establishment (both political and media) for that, but if the public masses of the Democrats buy into that hysteria as well then there's just nothing for it.

 

[Tireseas_v1legacy]

I think the focus on electability is a mistake because A) it plays to Trump's few strengths (he loves a head-on collision that he can mock down), and B) it overlooks why Trump was elected in the first place. States didn't flip red on him because Hillary was a woman or because Trump had nuanced policy. Trump spoke and played to select fears that Democrats had allowed to fester in what they assumed were safe states for themselves. They want Trump out? Go back and assuage those fears and get those people back on your side, or at least undermine Trump's rhetoric that he's the one cleaning out the swamp and getting their jobs and prosperity back. All the anti-Trump rabbling does is strengthen him in the eyes of those voters that made the crucial states swing for him last election. I've been blaming the establishment (both political and media) for that, but if the public masses of the Democrats buy into that hysteria as well then there's just nothing for it.

And I think discounting electability is how you lose a primary. This idea that "people shouldn't care about electability" is one that you can push, but at the end of the day, people want a nominee who can win. How they win is going to very by the candidate (again, I think Biden and Sanders are about equally electable in a general), but most people aren't interested in throwing away their vote for a candidate they don't think can win the general.

Making the case for being able to win the general and convincing people your analysis is correct is how you win primaries. If they don't believe your case, then they're going to be much less inclined to vote for you. This isn't rocket science. Sanders problem is that the case he's making isn't convincing enough voters to support him, and votes matter in determining the nominee.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

snip

Are you holding up the Biden campaign as a pillar of campaign competence? Because that is fucking laughable.

Warren ran a good campaign that was more liberal and had less baggage than Clinton, albeit certainly not perfect (that Cherokee DNA test was one of the biggest unforced errors and will probably be spoken about in the same tone as Ed Muske in the Snow [https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/01/17/72-front-runners-tears-hurt]). You don't need to run a perfect campaign to be a front runner (both Biden and Sanders have ran deeply flawed campaigns) and she was, by far and away, "the ideas candidate." She barely had viability in many states. With the massive caveat that November 2016 remains a fucking awful trauma event for a lot of Democrats that likely made it harder for them to support a woman running for the nomination just as a gut reflex in this particular cycle, it's kind of clear that sexism likely played a substantial role even if not definitive (Sanders taking the progressive lane and getting progressive endorsements right after his heart attack to assure his supporters he was still in it, likely was the point where the race could have shifted substantially but didn't), and denying it kind of is a slap in the face of a lot of democratic women who feel they are held to a higher standard [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/are-female-presidential-candidates-held-to-a-higher-standard-than-males].

I admittedly don't have a view into the mind of the electorate, so there may be a mountain of sexism in the democrat voting bloc, but I'm not very willing to throw the average dem voter under the bus of sexism when there are perfectly logical broadly unappealing aspects to a candidate.

 

[Tireseas_v1legacy]

snip

Are you holding up the Biden campaign as a pillar of campaign competence? Because that is fucking laughable.

Warren ran a good campaign that was more liberal and had less baggage than Clinton, albeit certainly not perfect (that Cherokee DNA test was one of the biggest unforced errors and will probably be spoken about in the same tone as Ed Muske in the Snow [https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/01/17/72-front-runners-tears-hurt]). You don't need to run a perfect campaign to be a front runner (both Biden and Sanders have ran deeply flawed campaigns) and she was, by far and away, "the ideas candidate." She barely had viability in many states. With the massive caveat that November 2016 remains a fucking awful trauma event for a lot of Democrats that likely made it harder for them to support a woman running for the nomination just as a gut reflex in this particular cycle, it's kind of clear that sexism likely played a substantial role even if not definitive (Sanders taking the progressive lane and getting progressive endorsements right after his heart attack to assure his supporters he was still in it, likely was the point where the race could have shifted substantially but didn't), and denying it kind of is a slap in the face of a lot of democratic women who feel they are held to a higher standard [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/are-female-presidential-candidates-held-to-a-higher-standard-than-males].

I admittedly don't have a view into the mind of the electorate, so there may be a mountain of sexism in the democrat voting bloc, but I'm not very willing to throw the average dem voter under the bus of sexism when there are perfectly logical broadly unappealing aspects to a candidate.

I mean, that's an argument, but research suggests otherwise [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/11/women-candidates-must-overcome-sexist-attitudes-even-democratic-primary/]. Hell, if you include second order sexism (AKA "I'm fine but I'm worried about the other voter"), a lot of democratic voters are fairly open about it as a factor [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-people-keep-asking-elizabeth-warren-whether-she-can-win/].

Again, I don't think it was the only thing that prevented Warren from reaching the top two in the voting, and the lasting echo of 2016 may have actually exacerbated those factors in this cycle, but it's really hard to escape sexism was a factor, and the unfortunate ring of truth was best expressed by Warren when asked:

"If you say, 'Yeah, there was sexism in this race,' everyone says, 'Whiner.' And if you say, 'There was no sexism,' about a bazillion women think, 'What planet do you live on?'"

 

[Gordon_4_v1legacy]

It never ceases to amaze me just how much of a fucking pantomime the mere act of choosing who is going to run for the presidency. The actual presidential election I get being a big deal but just the party choosing it?s candidate? Fucking hell.

 

[Seanchaidh]

And, as I mentioned earlier, my main preference this year was for Warren,

Unfortunately, despite being experienced, broadly effective and a potentially powerful compromise candidate between the centre and left of the Democratic Party, she had the disadvantage of being a woman in a country that doesn't look much ready for a female president.

She also made some extraordinarily poor choices about optics and strategy, driven in part by many of the same people who directed Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign into a sewer.

Are you holding up the Biden campaign as a pillar of campaign competence? Because that is fucking laughable.

No; the Dem establishment as a whole made either a very good play by running so many candidates (which had the function of avoiding scrutiny on Biden) and then consolidating just before Super Tuesday (for maximum impact of all the endorsements). The Biden campaign has otherwise been a mess owing to a large degree to Biden's inadequacies when it comes to his record and his propensity to just lie his ass off. Their smartest decision has been to hide him as much as possible.

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/shoe0nhead/status/1238630366790983682"]

This seems like an apples to apples comparison:

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/1238535399544250371"]

Bonus round:

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/SilERabbit/status/1238670407013552128"]

This lying seems pathological. It's like a portion of the Democratic Party electorate has decided that we need someone as much like Trump as possible.

Warren ran a good campaign that was more liberal and had less baggage than Clinton, albeit certainly not perfect (that Cherokee DNA test was one of the biggest unforced errors and will probably be spoken about in the same tone as Ed Muske in the Snow [https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/01/17/72-front-runners-tears-hurt]).

Yeah, that's one decision. Of course, that ties into a history of bad decisions that disrespect the Cherokee nation.

You don't need to run a perfect campaign to be a front runner (both Biden and Sanders have ran deeply flawed campaigns) and she was, by far and away, "the ideas candidate."

This is rose-colored glasses.

She barely had viability in many states. With the massive caveat that November 2016 remains a fucking awful trauma event for a lot of Democrats that likely made it harder for them to support a woman running for the nomination just as a gut reflex in this particular cycle, it's kind of clear that sexism likely played a substantial role even if not definitive (Sanders taking the progressive lane and getting progressive endorsements right after his heart attack to assure his supporters he was still in it, likely was the point where the race could have shifted substantially but didn't), and denying it kind of is a slap in the face of a lot of democratic women who feel they are held to a higher standard [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/are-female-presidential-candidates-held-to-a-higher-standard-than-males].

Female presidential candidates are typically held to a higher standard, just as are black candidates [small]and Jewish candidates[/small]. Also, they're often just worse than many of their counterparts because the sacrifices the political system demands of them to get to a position where they can run for President are typically higher; e.g. Kamala Harris is a cop.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Arizona election director is announcing that polling locations will be closed in Maricopa County. Great move during a pandemic to funnel large numbers of people into fewer places.

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/theconvocouch/status/1238971429351088130"]

(They're closing poll locations in Maricopa to suppress the Latino vote because Latinos have been massively behind Senator Sanders.)

 

[Lil devils x_v1legacy]

Depressingly, the day Biden announced he was running, I knew he was going to win the nomination, thus why I came on here and said I wish he hadn't run. I haven't wanted to talk about it tbh because I already knew it was futile. Same ol' same ol', nothing will change.

Of course the "youth vote" can't turn out on a Tuesday in the middle of the week because most working age adults in the US are not able to take off from work, school, or juggle their childcare to go stand in massive lines for hours. The retired and wealthy people do not have those obstacles so they can afford to spend their Tuesday that way. They rig the system to make it very difficult to vote so only the privileged can do so.

 

[Lil devils x_v1legacy]

Spoiler

And, as I mentioned earlier, my main preference this year was for Warren,

Unfortunately, despite being experienced, broadly effective and a potentially powerful compromise candidate between the centre and left of the Democratic Party, she had the disadvantage of being a woman in a country that doesn't look much ready for a female president.

She also made some extraordinarily poor choices about optics and strategy, driven in part by many of the same people who directed Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign into a sewer.

Are you holding up the Biden campaign as a pillar of campaign competence? Because that is fucking laughable.

No; the Dem establishment as a whole made either a very good play by running so many candidates (which had the function of avoiding scrutiny on Biden) and then consolidating just before Super Tuesday (for maximum impact of all the endorsements). The Biden campaign has otherwise been a mess owing to a large degree to Biden's inadequacies when it comes to his record and his propensity to just lie his ass off. Their smartest decision has been to hide him as much as possible.

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/shoe0nhead/status/1238630366790983682"]

This seems like an apples to apples comparison:

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/1238535399544250371"]

Bonus round:

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/SilERabbit/status/1238670407013552128"]

This lying seems pathological. It's like a portion of the Democratic Party electorate has decided that we need someone as much like Trump as possible.

Warren ran a good campaign that was more liberal and had less baggage than Clinton, albeit certainly not perfect (that Cherokee DNA test was one of the biggest unforced errors and will probably be spoken about in the same tone as Ed Muske in the Snow [https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/01/17/72-front-runners-tears-hurt]).

Yeah, that's one decision. Of course, that ties into a history of bad decisions that disrespect the Cherokee nation.

You don't need to run a perfect campaign to be a front runner (both Biden and Sanders have ran deeply flawed campaigns) and she was, by far and away, "the ideas candidate."

This is rose-colored glasses.

She barely had viability in many states. With the massive caveat that November 2016 remains a fucking awful trauma event for a lot of Democrats that likely made it harder for them to support a woman running for the nomination just as a gut reflex in this particular cycle, it's kind of clear that sexism likely played a substantial role even if not definitive (Sanders taking the progressive lane and getting progressive endorsements right after his heart attack to assure his supporters he was still in it, likely was the point where the race could have shifted substantially but didn't), and denying it kind of is a slap in the face of a lot of democratic women who feel they are held to a higher standard [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/are-female-presidential-candidates-held-to-a-higher-standard-than-males].

Female presidential candidates are typically held to a higher standard, just as are black candidates [small]and Jewish candidates[/small]. Also, they're often just worse than many of their counterparts because the sacrifices the political system demands of them to get to a position where they can run for President are typically higher; e.g. Kamala Harris is a cop.

Biden and other candidates BS peddling on Medicare for all and the ignorant " keep your health insurance and have a public option" nonsense Buttigieg was spouting off about was some of the worst ignorance pushing healthcare segregation I have heard yet. I may even go as far as saying it was up there with Trump level of nonsense. They will only drive up healthcare costs if they keep insurance as is and create substandard segregated care. The only way to actually improve quality of care and bring down costs is to have everyone in the same system. Putting the healthy, wealthy in with the sick and poor and have them all using the same system and the same quality of service will ensure that everyone receives better service. Segregating the sick and poor from the rest of the system only ensures it fails miserably. Take the BEST policies and make them standard for everyone is how you solve this. It isn't like the sick and well are different people, they are just the same people at different times in their lives. People are healthy until they're not. People like their insurance until they need it most. Most people however do not like their insurance, they suffer it because they are more afraid of having nothing.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Depressingly, the day Biden announced he was running, I knew he was going to win the nomination, thus why I came on here and said I wish he hadn't run. I haven't wanted to talk about it tbh because I already knew it was futile. Same ol' same ol', nothing will change.

Of course the "youth vote" can't turn out on a Tuesday in the middle of the week because most working age adults in the US are not able to take off from work, school, or juggle their childcare to go stand in massive lines for hours. The retired and wealthy people do not have those obstacles so they can afford to spend their Tuesday that way. They rig the system to make it very difficult to vote so only the privileged can do so.

It could happen, but I don't think it's inevitable.

I do think Bernie ought to be more aggressive against Biden. Like this, which was not produced by his campaign: [tweet t="https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1239081819401867264"]

 

[Eacaraxe_v1legacy]

(They're closing poll locations in Maricopa to suppress the Latino vote because Latinos have been massively behind Senator Sanders.)

That actually made me sick to my stomach. Willing to put hundreds of thousands of lives at risk to ratfuck a primary race. I've seen some cynical, disgusting political stunts in my life, but this one is orders of magnitude worse than anything I imagined even the most cutthroat and amoral political operatives were capable. Not a fucking word from most Democrats.

[tweet t=https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1239200647616004096]

I'm very seriously considering not voting for any Democrat this year after this garbage, down-ballot or not.

 

[dreng3]

(They're closing poll locations in Maricopa to suppress the Latino vote because Latinos have been massively behind Senator Sanders.)

That actually made me sick to my stomach. Willing to put hundreds of thousands of lives at risk to ratfuck a primary race. I've seen some cynical, disgusting political stunts in my life, but this one is orders of magnitude worse than anything I imagined even the most cutthroat and amoral political operatives were capable. Not a fucking word from most Democrats.

[tweet t=https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1239200647616004096]

I'm very seriously considering not voting for any Democrat this year after this garbage, down-ballot or not.

Don't care if you vote in the primary or not, but voting in the general is vital. The problem would not have gotten this big had the current president not dismantled several safeguards that would protect against pandemics.

 

[Eacaraxe_v1legacy]

Don't care if you vote in the primary or not, but voting in the general is vital. The problem would not have gotten this big had the current president not dismantled several safeguards that would protect against pandemics.

I'll be voting all right, just not for shitlibs.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

#LyingJoe is trending hard on Twitter since he spent the debate lying his ass off, at every opportunity, on a good chunk of the points brought up. And despite being the "disregard your morals and your logic to beat Trump" candidate, he didn't even talk about Trump as much as Bernie did.

But he managed to stand up straight for 2 hours, so the news media is declaring it a pretty good showing from Biden.

 

[Kwak]

Is this a stutter?

"This is the problem. We can't talk ? I know there's a political line. I understand, 'China's terrible, awful, nothing ever good, ruswayourawah.' But the fact of the matter is, China of course is an authoritarian state, that's what I just said five minutes ago."

Not a typo, there, just a transcription.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/live-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-meet-for-democratic-debate-in-shadow-of-coronavirus/live-coverage/a99ebb2478ab93eb0efeab5323a19843

 

[Marik2]

I kinda like this debate cuz I am tired of hearing undeserved cheers and claps for wrong things.

 

[Marik2]

 

[Eacaraxe_v1legacy]

I kinda like this debate cuz I am tired of hearing undeserved cheers and claps for wrong things.

Welcome to what substantial political discussion looks like. Something we haven't had since Buckley and MacNeil/Lehrer, and definitely not since cable news. It's a good feeling, isn't it?

Meanwhile, straight out of "are you shitting me?":

[tweet t=https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1239581387797270530]

[tweet t=https://twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1239575319989882880]

The absolute madlads are going to do it. They're going to unapologetically run to the left of Democrats and win. Everyone not a Democratic strategist saw it coming from a mile away, but they're actually doing it now.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me if this was McConnell's doing, get House Democrats to cave on a shitty bill, let it stew over the weekend, then hit it from the left to make Pelosi look like an absolute moron.

 

[Marik2]

I kinda like this debate cuz I am tired of hearing undeserved cheers and claps for wrong things.

Welcome to what substantial political discussion looks like. Something we haven't had since Buckley and MacNeil/Lehrer, and definitely not since cable news. It's a good feeling, isn't it?

Meanwhile, straight out of "are you shitting me?":

[tweet t=https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1239581387797270530]

[tweet t=https://twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1239575319989882880]

The absolute madlads are going to do it. They're going to unapologetically run to the left of Democrats and win. Everyone not a Democratic strategist saw it coming from a mile away, but they're actually doing it now.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me if this was McConnell's doing, get House Democrats to cave on a shitty bill, let it stew over the weekend, then hit it from the left to make Pelosi look like an absolute moron.

It's probably going to be a crappy version of UBI. Even if it passes, they will screw it up and say, "UBI does not work, let's stop".

 

[Seanchaidh]

Ummm...

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/ButtSexington/status/1239606114225999872"]

Wonder what's going on there.