The Witcher 2 Pirated "Roughly 4.5 Million" Times, Says Dev

[MIghtyShamus]

He is correct that DRM does not work and is nothing but a hassle for paying customers but then he makes big assumptions about connection speeds and download times and number of downloads, then uses math on made up numbers to get to 4.5 million. Then he says he's low balling it. NO. You released a "hardcore RPG" for the PC, specifically higher end gaming PCs, which translates to a niche of a niche of a niche. If you want 5.5 million copies sold, you need to look at consoles or mass market.

I appreciate that he is trying to use numbers to show the futility of DRM, but when publishers hear "4.5 million pirate downloads" they think "DRM! DRM ON EVERYTHING!" While I feel bad for the people that are working hard and potentially not getting their due for it, even if there were that many downloads, one pirated copy is not equal to one stolen/bought copy.

 

[Something Amyss]

Those bastards! Pirating such a great game 5 million times. How dare they have the audacity to take 50 million copies of such a wonderful game. Really, do you people not realize you will cripple all video game development when you steal 500 million copies like what happened with the Witcher 2. How would you like being a starving artist hoping to feed your family when those horrible horrible consumers steal 5 billion copies of your game like what actually happen with the witcher 2. Seriously what does anyone need with 50 billion copies of one game?

Yeah, the numbers seem a more than a little bit over exaggerated to the point of out and out lies.

Personally, I don't think 500 billion copies pirated is all that bad. Call me heartless, but 5 trillion is just a drop in the bucket.

I'm going so far as to ask myself if there's any pirate out there going "man, if only this game didn't have DRM, I could get it for free. Now I'm forced to buy it because of that pesky DRM".
I mean, seriously. What's this number compared to other games? Do we have conclusive evidence that DRM would have made the number of pirated copies significantly lower?

There's probably a few. Maybe tens. Not enough to make a significant different in any case. At least, I severely doubt it.

 

[TheAmazingHobo]

I really like CDP and I really enjoyed the first Witcher.... but that 4.5 million number is bullshit and his way of calculating it a complete joke (anyone curious should read the original article, second question, first paragraph).

If anyone needs me, I´ll be over here, in one of my approximately 144.3 million beds.
That on the pessimistic side of course. I have probably more.

 

[Kopikatsu]

I like the part of the original article where the guy says there are no real statistics, then proceeds to go through a list of assumptions.

They have bad business sense is what they have. 4,500,000+ copies pirated is kind of a large number. A really large number.

An ass-pulled number, but still. IT'S REALLY REALLY BIG!

If those people paid even a single penny for the game, that's still $45,000+ lost. More than what most people make in a year.

Assuming they would have paid a single cent is still a pretty big assumption.

To be fair, it's not like they can ask the internet 'If you've pirated our game, and be honest now, please fill out this survey.'

Anyway, why is it a large assumption? By taking the time and space on their harddrive to pirate the game, they've obviously shown an interest in the game. Most people could find more than a penny's worth of money after searching for 30 seconds. (Hint: Check the couch)

Besides, even if you want to play the 'Most pirates wouldn't pay for it anyway' card, only 750 of those hypothetical 4,500,000 people would have had to buy the game at full price in order to make the same amount of money as everyone paying a penny.

 

[The Madman]

I'm kinda annoyed that of all things to pull from that interview 'Pirated X amount of times' was what the Escapist went with, especially when it's just a number the guy came up with on the spot as rough estimate at best. Now there's going to be three or four pages of people just saying "I don't agree with that estimate".

Great interview however, read it when it was first posted on PCgamer. I thought it was interesting how he talked about Poland and early issues with piracy when they were still a small start up company.

 

[Soviet Steve]

Huh, I think I'll be buying Witcher 2.

 

[Uber Evil]

I feel really bad for them. They are trying to do a good thing, yet people still are pirating their game, which from what I heard was really good.

 

[gmaverick019_v1legacy]

while i absolutely hate pirates in the game industry, because the developer is always the one that gets punished, i am fully supporting CD projekt, god do i love their games and website, and by god are they badass in general. glad to know that they are sane normal people who listen to their customers instead of things that rhyme with...

shmubisoft

 

[dyre]

They have good policies regarding DRM. That's as far as my praise of CDP will stretch.
But yes, excellent attitude regarding value of product.

They have bad business sense is what they have. 4,500,000+ copies pirated is kind of a large number. A really large number.

If even half of those people paid a single penny for the game, that's still $22,500 lost. Half of what most people make in a year.

And what exactly have they done that shows they have a bad business sense? What they have is an intelligent public relations sense.

No, clearly making a successful PC-only game that sells in the millions and earns them reviews such as "best RPG of the year" and so on, is really bad business sense. Establishing goodwill and sympathy and respect, strengthening your brand...stuff like that is really bad. Horrible. What are they SMOKING?!

You probably should've quoted the guy I quoted, not me...preaching to the choir

 

[Enkidu88]

They have good policies regarding DRM. That's as far as my praise of CDP will stretch.
But yes, excellent attitude regarding value of product.

They have bad business sense is what they have. 4,500,000+ copies pirated is kind of a large number. A really large number.

Sure is a large number, but spending money on putting in a DRM system wouldn't have shrunk the number by an significant margin. Most DRM programs are cracked within a day of release, and sometimes it's cracked before release. The most successful DRM I've heard of was Ubisoft's always on DRM which took a few weeks to crack. Even Steamworks games aren't immune. Basically what they've done is take the money they would have wasted on a worthless DRM program and put it to some better purpose. Not to mention the sales generated by goodwill alone for not inflicting a DRM program on their customers. Seems like quite good business sense to me.

 

[Kopikatsu]

Anyway, why is it a large assumption? By taking the time and space on their harddrive to pirate the game, they've obviously shown an interest in the game. Most people could find more than a penny's worth of money after searching for 30 seconds. (Hint: Check the couch)

But downloading the game from their servers would cost CD Projekt more than a penny, so it would still be a net loss for them. It's the Humble Indie Bundle situation all over again.

That's why you can't think in those terms. Most people pirate because it's fast, it's easy, it's accessible and they don't have to go through any sort of channels to give money out of their own wallet. If there was this magical way to subtract a penny (transaction cost-free) from everyone who pirated the game and put it in the developers' pocket, then maybe you'd have a point.

I didn't mean they should charge a penny. I was just putting the sheer volume of it into perspective.

 

[Something Amyss]

To be fair, it's not like they can ask the internet 'If you've pirated our game, and be honest now, please fill out this survey.'

Still doesn't validate the numbers at all. It just makes it dumber to make the estimate.

Anyway, why is it a large assumption? By taking the time and space on their harddrive to pirate the game, they've obviously shown an interest in the game. Most people could find more than a penny's worth of money after searching for 30 seconds. (Hint: Check the couch)

Look at the number of torrents for the Humble Indie Bundle games, were you COULD pay a penny.

Oh, darn. There goes that argument.

Besides, even if you want to play the 'Most pirates wouldn't pay for it anyway' card, only 750 of those hypothetical 4,500,000 people would have had to buy the game at full price in order to make the same amount of money as everyone paying a penny.

And it's still a pretty strong assumption to affirmatively say that they would. For someone who was just arguing we don't have a time machine and can't prove the harm DRM might have done, you're pretty much doing the opposite.

 

[The Random One]

I would buy Witcher a thousand times over if it was a game I had the slightest interest in. I don't have the slightest interest in it.

 

[Voltano]

I haven't had the chance to try Witcher 2 and can't play my copy of the first game (not a good computer for that one, unfortunately), but I can definitely see myself dropping money more for these fantasy RPGs then a "Dragon Age" copy going for any price.

Steam was having a sale earlier this summer and I got the entire "Dragon Age" game for a little over 10 bucks. It was fun, but the DLC wouldn't activate until I made a Bioware account, EA account, and then tell the developers I legally purchased all of that extra content. The main game I tried was okay, but I felt like I was a criminal due to EA's way of confirming I bought all the DLC from Steam. Kind of reminds me of how Jim Sterling said that a game fails any time it discriminates against legally paying customers [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/4568-Online-Passes-Are-Bad-For-Everybody].

 

[Kopikatsu]

They have good policies regarding DRM. That's as far as my praise of CDP will stretch.
But yes, excellent attitude regarding value of product.

They have bad business sense is what they have. 4,500,000+ copies pirated is kind of a large number. A really large number.

Sure is a large number, but spending money on putting in a DRM system wouldn't have shrunk the number by an significant margin. Most DRM programs are cracked within a day of release, and sometimes it's cracked before release. The most successful DRM I've heard of was Ubisoft's always on DRM which took a few weeks to crack. Even Steamworks games aren't immune. Basically what they've done is take the money they would have wasted on a worthless DRM program and put it to some better purpose. Not to mention the sales generated by goodwill alone for not inflicting a DRM program on their customers. Seems like quite good business sense to me.

The Witcher 2 cost 102 million zlotys to produce. That's not counting marketing or anything, that's strictly production costs. According to GOG's sales data, they sold 250,000~ units from when Witcher 2 was released up until 2 weeks ago. (200,000 from Steam, 40,000 from GOG, and 10,000 from Direct2Drive/Impulse/Gamersgate). Each copy of The Witcher 2 cost about 170 zlotys. 250,000 x 170 = 42,500,000 zlotys. Not counting Steam's fee, or marketing costs, or any of that other fun stuff.

Actually...I feel like my math is off somewhere. Based on those numbers...CDP should probably have shut down. On the other hand, the first Witcher had a profit line somewhere around 3,500 USD.

 

[Comando96]

They have bad business sense is what they have.

Someone I know via steam said that he was engaging in a competition where they would try to crack Assassins Creed Brotherhood so a constant connection will be required.

He lost by 7 days. However the first working... according to him (as I bought my copy on the day of release on Steam) was uploaded to pirate bay a month after release.

Having something that is DRM ridden is merely:
1) An encouragement to get a DRM free version and not buy a legitimate version.
2) A Challenge to people... to break it...