Its not as crazy as it seems.Blunderboy said:Investors are pretty damn crazy then. They do realize that consumers are capable of liking two similar products don't they?Grey Carter said:
Hell, as you pointed out, these two aren?t even that similar anyway, at least not in terms of tone.
Plus, given the time difference in terms of release dates, it?s amazing they would raise that question.
Consider the price of each game and the bad economy. If you are buying more than one game a month and you're a student or unemployed you can essentially screw yourself over. For investors, if they see two similar products coming out when consumers have lower demand and money that usual, and considering their panic from the failure of their other stocks with the crash, and we take into consideration that investors do research but they don't necessarily (in fact its unlikely) play video games (or at least the major investors don't), and we see that investors really only care about the bottom line BECAUSE they aren't gamers or creators so they have nothing invested in the game but money, then we see that investor behaviour isn't irrational so much as attempting to use a concrete theory on a random system (stock markets). Due to the randomness of the system, the mechanics stay the same BUT the data that comes in and out is unrelated to one another.
So investors have to be creative about how they are going to judge the possible success of one thing to another thing. Whether two video game stocks, or a video game stock and banana stock, you still have to compare and see where its best to hedge your bets but you can see how impossible it is to create the theoretical framework that will ALWAYS tell you which is more profitable. As I said, they use creative common sense instead of theory because it allows you to make outlandish comparisons. They might argue: its becoming winter, when bananas do not grow and banana consumption goes down in North America. However, video games are indoor entretainment, one would assume a snowstorm would mean that video games are going to do well in late fall and winter. However, maybe they would want a Kinect because the lack of physical exercise will make people WANT to move around and use their neglected bodies, something they definitely not want to do after sweating in the summer heat.
In reality, this is no different from gambling. People assuming that common sense observations could help make a RANDOM system make sense and help them win(Gambling and stock market are as complex in their cause and effect chains and therefore I will claim both are random, but this is debatable).
