NeutralDrow said:
thedoclc said:
NeutralDrow said:
thedoclc said:
A perfectly valid argument exists that the ICBM and nuclear weapons (whether delivered by submarine, bomber, or missile) are being used all the time - by creating such fear of an attack that conventional warfare between nations which have such weapons has all but disappeared.
...except for, you know, India and Pakistan.
You realize that only nine or ten states have nuclear capability, right? And that the ones who have been in a position to engage in warfare have had no problems finding non-nuclear forces willing to fight against them? The US and Russia never really stopped fighting through the second half of the 20th century, Britain and France sat on their asses (barring NATO), China was too busy destroying itself from the inside-out (during Mao) and encouraging economic growth (post-Mao), and North Korea doesn't know what the hell its doing, anyway.
My statement, that conventional warfare
between nuclear armed nations has never happened, is correct. India and Pakistan have engaged in conventional warfare three times since their independence and tragic division (nice job, Britain), but they have
not engaged in it since becoming nuclear powers.
Hehehe...<url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War#WMDs_and_the_nuclear_factor>no, not really.
I stand corrected, but one exception does not prove a rule. Thank you for pointing this instance out; I was under the impression that it had been almost entirely fought with proxy militants on the part of the Pakistanis. However after some reading, this war still looks far, far different from industrialized, early 20th century warfare with full mobilization.
That is where nuclear arms have changed warfare.
snip
I'm starting to see what you were talking about ("greatest" in the sense that they changed quite a bit, however briefly, not that they're actually useful today).
Today's world of regional, low-intensity conflicts exists in part because large scale, third-generation warfare between great powers had become too destructive to be endured, in no small part because of nuclear arms. In other words, these weapons in part defined conflict in the late 20th century by preventing the types of punch-ups that occured from the birth of the modern nation-state until about 1945.
The original point was that the OP said the ICBM was disqualified for having never been used. I'd argued it could be powerfully argued that having them sit in their silos, scaring the crap out of everyone, is exactly the preferred method of use of any nuclear arm. Deterrence is a form of use.
Although it's interesting to ponder what may have happened if the US and USSR had confronted each other directly, rather than engage in destabilizing shadow and proxy wars for fifty years.
I'd replace "interesting" with "horrific." As bad as these conflicts were, direct confrontation would have been far, far worse. It's a nice thought exercise for the morbid.
The OP's criteria were what had the biggest impact in their time and place as well as were crewed by a single person. Relaxing that third restriction makes nuclear arms, the airplane, armor units, artillery, and the aircraft carrier serious contenders for top spots.
I do agree that nuclear nations are a threat to stability, but mostly due to the ability for the situation to turn cataclysmic and for the lack of restraint on these nations. As Soviet and US stockpiles grew, the US and USSR began to establish norms in the game and better checks on each other. This is unlikely to happen as the speed of proliferation and the number of actors with such weapons increases.
If you're worried about nuclear states increasing, your concern is misplaced. As many states have given up nuclear weapons and nuke programs as there are actual nuclear states, and half the world is currently comprised of Nuclear Weapon Free Zones (with another one in discussion in the Middle East, <url=http://library.gcc-sg.org/English/Books/sessions/cs027.html>pushed by the GCC).
This is quite a straw man of what I said, especially since Iran is an obvious exception. Please don't edit something down into a straw man.
Someone most certainly believes Iran is intending to develop nuclear arms. http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_iran1228_12_10.asp Whether or not Iran is blaming the correct parties is obviously not something we can answer here.
Also, your concern about states being irresponsible with nuclear weapons is misplaced. They're not the problem. Kim Jongun knows better than to use nukes for anything (even if he's lying about being less militaristic than his father), India and Pakistan don't have any targets other than each other, Israel's enemies are too close for safe use even if they did want to commit political suicide, Iran's most likely not developing nukes at all, and the big five aren't enemies of each other militarily. They're not the problem; non-state actors are.
In fact, considering the deathgrip those less "rational" nations keep on their stockpiles, the bigger danger is that someone will steal something from Russia.
Non-state actors are a threat due to the possibility of nuclear terrorism, and India's other big rival - militarily, economically, and politically - is China. Israel's enemies include quite a few nations which are well outside of the range they need to use smaller, 1 megaton arms, most notably Iran. State actors are one threat, of course. Furthermore, these states have not quite the deathgrip you think. http://www.hvk.org/articles/0305/63.html
Ironically, we mostly agree. The potential for non-state actors to acquire arms from Russia is like a meteor strike; low probability, devastating pay-off. However, this further argues for inclusion at or near the top of the list for "changed everything." If these weapons could be acquired by non-state groups, it opens up the possibility of very real strategic attacks on the part of non-state actors beyond assassinations. And that's a scary change.
While I'd like to continue the discussion, my original point, "Nukes made large scale 3rd Generation warfare between the great powers extremely rare," still stands. We may disagree on particulars.