Ukraine

Silvanus

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A day or two ago, Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine and Turkey to allow the export of Ukrainian grain to resume through the black sea ports.

Less than 24 hours later, Russia broke the agreement by launching an enormous missile attack on the black sea port of Odessa.


Proof, if yet more proof were needed, that peace cannot be secured by signing a treaty and then expecting Russia to abide by the commitments it agrees to. The Russian government views treaties and international agreements as stalling tactics or a means of misdirection, to be broken at will. Ukraine will need some form of protection from invasion, that doesn't come in the form of a meaningless promise.
 
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CM156

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A day or two ago, Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine and Turkey to allow the export of Ukrainian grain to resume through the black sea ports.

Less than 24 hours later, Russia broke the agreement by launching an enormous shelling attack on the black sea port of Odessa.


Proof, if yet more proof were needed, that peace cannot be secured by signing a treaty and then expecting Russia to abide by the commitments it agrees to. The Russian government views treaties and international agreements as stalling tactics or a means of misdirection, to be broken at will. Ukraine will need some form of protection from invasion, that doesn't come in the form of a meaningless promise.
Yes, but have you considered that a nonagenarian linguistics professor has pointed out that the USA has *also* done bad things?
 

Silvanus

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A slightly bizarre update to the above; Russia has given two explanations for the strikes on Odessa, which contradict one another. They assured Turkey that they didn't launch the attack at all... and then made a public statement that they did launch the attack, but only on a purely military target in the area.

Both explanations are clearly false. But it's particularly strange to offer two, which are mutually exclusive. Unless internal communications in the Russian foreign ministry truly are that shoddy, and they didn't get the lie straight.

 

Agema

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A slightly bizarre update to the above; Russia has given two explanations for the strikes on Odessa, which contradict one another. They assured Turkey that they didn't launch the attack at all... and then made a public statement that they did launch the attack, but only on a purely military target in the area.
This is absolutely typical Russia, though. It's part of their misinformation warfare to put out multiple, inconsistent stories / explanations.

I could accept shelling over a frontline being "accidental" (i.e. some your halfwit grunts let fly without proper orders), but you don't accidentally drop a load of missiles on a city a long way away.
 
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Silvanus

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This is absolutely typical Russia, though. It's part of their misinformation warfare to put out multiple, inconsistent stories / explanations.

I could accept shelling over a frontline being "accidental" (i.e. some your halfwit grunts let fly without proper orders), but you don't accidentally drop a load of missiles on a city a long way away.
What's the benefit above a single consistent lie? Just that confusion/debate/doubt is the aim, rather than actually trying to convince anyone who wouldn't be convinced anyway?
 

Agema

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What's the benefit above a single consistent lie? Just that confusion/debate/doubt is the aim, rather than actually trying to convince anyone who wouldn't be convinced anyway?
Pretty much, as I recall. Put out so much information out there that no-one knows what to believe, so they end up not trusting anything to be true. And people who don't believe in anything being true don't do much about anything.
 

Silvanus

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Russia is now reportedly eyeing this September to run referenda in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson on becoming part of Russia.

Of course, we know that votes administered by Russia are enforced at the barrel of a gun. So the plan is annexation of those two Oblasts, ignoring the pretense that the war was waged to protect independence for Donetsk and Luhansk.

Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are both vital agricultural centres for Ukraine, so this is a classic resource-capturing war, a-la the USA-- only with annexation as well.
 
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Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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Russia is now reportedly eyeing this September to run referenda in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson on becoming part of Russia.

Of course, we know that votes administered by Russia are enforced at the barrel of a gun. So the plan is annexation of those two Oblasts, ignoring the pretense that the war was waged to protect independence for Donetsk and Luhansk.

Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are both vital agricultural centres for Ukraine, so this is a classic resource-capturing war, a-la the USA-- only with annexation as well.
Werid because Ukraine is planing an offensive to retake Kherson
will be interesting to see what happens
 

Agema

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Werid because Ukraine is planing an offensive to retake Kherson
will be interesting to see what happens
Russia doesn't need to hold Kherson city. In fact, the Dneiper makes for a very handy border. They can run a referendum of whatever they have (well, more strictly tell us whatever result the Kremlin made up for themselves) and unilaterally annex it.

This will be a major test of Ukraine's offensive capabilities, because in all prior victories, I think it's more accurate to say that Russia failed on the offensive and withdrew. In particular, it will be interesting how Russian morale holds up in the face of a concerted offensive, especially if things go badly. If Russia is pushed back towards the Dneiper, they may well be forced to abandon Kherson otherwise their troops there could be cut off.
 
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Silvanus

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Werid because Ukraine is planing an offensive to retake Kherson
will be interesting to see what happens
Indeed. But just as with Donetsk and Luhansk, it's useful for propaganda purposes to claim to be defending local wishes. A falsified referendum result helps with that.
 

Satinavian

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After annexation, they will just start to claim that Ukraine is invading Russia proper when fighting in those two oblasts.

It is quite noteworthy that they don't do the "independend republic" dance this time.
 

Agema

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It is quite noteworthy that they don't do the "independend republic" dance this time.
The "independent republic" line was substantially just bullshit they cooked up to make it seem like a homegrown Ukrainian resistance to Kyiv. We all know that the breakaway militants were set up by and entirely reliant on Russian backing. In order to avoid a full-scale invasion, Russia wanted to leverage the Donbas as a means to permanently install Russian proxies in the Ukrainian government. The full invasion reflects the fact this tactic of separatists and independent republics has failed, so Russia is just going to nakedly take what it can.
 

Seanchaidh

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We all know that the breakaway militants were set up by and entirely reliant on Russian backing.
We do not know precisely this (although I'm sure you can find plenty of assertions of it in media) but we can conclude that no such movement would be purely homegrown because anything purely homegrown (which is to say with no outside support whatsoever) would have been brutally crushed by the Ukrainian Nazi regiments sent there instead of merely shelled by them resulting in tens of thousands of Ukrainian dead but not the entire capture of the breakaway oblasts. The Ukrainian coup government is not tolerant of separatism, and its influential Nazis are even less so.
 

Silvanus

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We do not know precisely this (although I'm sure you can find plenty of assertions of it in media) but we can conclude that no such movement would be purely homegrown because anything purely homegrown (which is to say with no outside support whatsoever) would have been brutally crushed by the Ukrainian Nazi regiments sent there instead of merely shelled by them resulting in tens of thousands of Ukrainian dead but not the entire capture of the breakaway oblasts. The Ukrainian coup government is not tolerant of separatism, and its influential Nazis are even less so.
There's been no organic or democratic expression of separatism for you to assume this, of course. You're basing it on Ukraine's unwillingness to allow a foreign country to run a military occupation on its land.

Nor does Russia have the slightest interest in protecting separatism, or the people who live there: you may have missed that Russia is now forcibly conscripting occupied Ukrainians in Donetsk and Luhansk.
 

Silvanus

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China has started the largest-ever military drills off the coast of Taiwan, including firing live missiles into the sea. According to the UN, 12 nautical miles from the coast of a country (and the corresponding airspace above) constitute that country's seaspace and airspace. The vast majority of UN countries have not recognised Taiwan as an independent country, so that does not legally apply, but it's notable that until now China has tacitly respected it anyway.

This of course comes 1 day after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.
 
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Satinavian

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China has quite a number of problems at home. There might be a wish to divert attention to something else.
 

Agema

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because that always works so well.
Depends. If you're doing it the UK ways of ignoring problems and kicking the can down the road, no.

If you distract attention whilst you actually fix the problem, yes it can.
 

Gordon_4

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China has started the largest-ever military drills off the coast of Taiwan, including firing live missiles into the sea. According to the UN, 12 nautical miles from the coast of a country (and the corresponding airspace above) constitute that country's seaspace and airspace. The vast majority of UN countries have not recognised Taiwan as an independent country, so that does not legally apply, but it's notable that until now China has tacitly respected it anyway.

This of course comes 1 day after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.
So the song of the day in Beijing is "Anything you can do, I can do better"?