Ukraine

[Absent]

I think it's easy to assume that they are being disposed of by the Kremlin. However I would suggest at least some may be being bumped off by other corrupt officials and criminal groups for their own benefit and advancement, because Russia is a place where organised crime and government are thoroughly intermingled, or even in some cases the same thing.

In particular, the extremely shady head of Wagner, often in conflict with russian military officials, and veering towards presidential ambitions.

 

[Dalisclock]

In particular, the extremely shady head of Wagner, often in conflict with russian military officials, and veering towards presidential ambitions.

So, are we taking bets on how long till Prigozhin "Accidently" stumbles out of a window onto some bullets? Or is he gonna be more of a rebel and fall down 5 flights of stairs?

 

[Ag3ma]

So, are we taking bets on how long till Prigozhin "Accidently" stumbles out of a window onto some bullets? Or is he gonna be more of a rebel and fall down 5 flights of stairs?

I'm more wondering whether Prigozhin will assist Putin into an ill-advised high altitude endeavour than vice versa.

No matter what face he puts on things, Putin has to be very seriously damaged by the Ukraine failure, and there are surely Russian officials seriously thinking about a post-Putin Russia. Putin might therefore want options from outside the Russian state to balance threats within - hence Prigozhin. But that also hands Prigozhin a lot of power to dethrone Putin.

 

[Dalisclock]

I'm more wondering whether Prigozhin will assist Putin into an ill-advised high altitude endeavour than vice versa.

No matter what face he puts on things, Putin has to be very seriously damaged by the Ukraine failure, and there are surely Russian officials seriously thinking about a post-Putin Russia. Putin might therefore want options from outside the Russian state to balance threats within - hence Prigozhin. But that also hands Prigozhin a lot of power to dethrone Putin.

That's the trick, isn't it? Authoritarians climb the ladder to power by exploiting division and using power plays, but at the same time, fear the same shit happening to them, so they use division to try to avoid letting anyone else getting too much power. Which is how you get crazy shit like duplication of resources and lack of cooperation between different people who should by all rights be cooperating(The Luftwaffe during WW2 had it's own ground troops because Goering didn't want to give any resources to the army and the Japanese Army and Navy during WW2 fucking hated each other to the point they were effectively fighting different wars).

Putin doesn't want the head of MOD to off him but at the same time probably doesn't want Wagner doing the same thing, so he has to walk that tightrope between letting anyone have too much power. OTOH, this also means that the military and Wagner are divided during an actual war and it hampers their effectiveness on the battlefield because people aren't cooperating to fight Ukraine(and likely fighting for glory and resources against each other).

Apparently after Solader Wagner and MOD both claimed credit for the victory and downplayed that the other was even involved and now Wagner has been cut off from recruiting prisoners so there's some bad blood to be sure.

Allegedly there was some incident in Syria where the US was gonna bomb some area and called up Russia to ask if they had any troops there. Russia said no and the US dropped bombs. What Russia didn't mention was Wagner had troops in the area who got killed that the MOD conveniently didn't mention. Then again, Wagner isn't technically part of the Russian military so....yeah.

 

[Thaluikhain]

That's the trick, isn't it? Authoritarians climb the ladder to power by exploiting division and using power plays, but at the same time, fear the same shit happening to them, so they use division to try to avoid letting anyone else getting too much power. Which is how you get crazy shit like duplication of resources and lack of cooperation between different people who should by all rights be cooperating(The Luftwaffe during WW2 had it's own ground troops because Goering didn't want to give any resources to the army and the Japanese Army and Navy during WW2 fucking hated each other to the point they were effectively fighting different wars).

I thought in Germany it was at least partially due to ideology, Hitler wanted competing organisations and so the best one would win, in a weird social darwinist way.

Though, in general that's correct, of course. Could also mention Stalin's purges of competent military officers as being threats, and also everyone wanting their unit to be the one to raise the Soviet flag over the Reichstag, and all the shenanigans that caused.

 

[Ag3ma]

That's the trick, isn't it? Authoritarians climb the ladder to power by exploiting division and using power plays, but at the same time, fear the same shit happening to them, so they use division to try to avoid letting anyone else getting too much power. Which is how you get crazy shit like duplication of resources and lack of cooperation between different people who should by all rights be cooperating(The Luftwaffe during WW2 had it's own ground troops because Goering didn't want to give any resources to the army and the Japanese Army and Navy during WW2 fucking hated each other to the point they were effectively fighting different wars).

Putin doesn't want the head of MOD to off him but at the same time probably doesn't want Wagner doing the same thing, so he has to walk that tightrope between letting anyone have too much power. OTOH, this also means that the military and Wagner are divided during an actual war and it hampers their effectiveness on the battlefield because people aren't cooperating to fight Ukraine(and likely fighting for glory and resources against each other).

Apparently after Solader Wagner and MOD both claimed credit for the victory and downplayed that the other was even involved and now Wagner has been cut off from recruiting prisoners so there's some bad blood to be sure.

Allegedly there was some incident in Syria where the US was gonna bomb some area and called up Russia to ask if they had any troops there. Russia said no and the US dropped bombs. What Russia didn't mention was Wagner had troops in the area who got killed that the MOD conveniently didn't mention. Then again, Wagner isn't technically part of the Russian military so....yeah.

And apparently, Gazprom is now also being allowed to create its own private army.

Although Gazprom, of course, is owned by the Russian State. So is this intended as another sort of army for Putin just in case one of the others doesn't play ball?

 

[Ag3ma]

I thought in Germany it was at least partially due to ideology, Hitler wanted competing organisations and so the best one would win, in a weird social darwinist way.

I think that applied to companies and procurement (e.g. tank design). Although of course Stalin's USSR did the same - they wanted multiple teams to come up with ideas.

I think Hitler had the Waffen-SS partly out of vanity and partly because he didn't entirely trust the regular armed forces (which were not directly loyal to the Party), and Goering had a stupidly large Luftwaffe ground force because he was a vain, fat fool who liked playing with his military toys and didn't think the air force was enough.

 

[Dalisclock]

And apparently, Gazprom is now also being allowed to create its own private army.

Although Gazprom, of course, is owned by the Russian State. So is this intended as another sort of army for Putin just in case one of the others doesn't play ball?

Russia is starting to look like a feudal state with nukes.

DUNE was strangely prescient.

 

[Thaluikhain]

I think that applied to companies and procurement (e.g. tank design). Although of course Stalin's USSR did the same - they wanted multiple teams to come up with ideas.

I think for procurement and design that's often common in lots of places, though, so not remarkable.

I think Hitler had the Waffen-SS partly out of vanity and partly because he didn't entirely trust the regular armed forces (which were not directly loyal to the Party), and Goering had a stupidly large Luftwaffe ground force because he was a vain, fat fool who liked playing with his military toys and didn't think the air force was enough.

That sounds likely. And now that I think of it, it could be the case that other organisations similarly competing with each other were the result of the same sort of rivalries, and not part of some grand plan, or at least not one that existed at the time and wasn't created in hindsight out of some Nazi mystique.

 

[Absent]

Interesting channel entirely made of (supposedly?) random russian people being asked questions in the street :

https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel/videos

 

[Silvanus]

We're 3 (?) days away from the 1-year anniversary of the invasion. We've seen a drastically increased shelling/cruise missile offensive from Russia in the past 2 weeks, but not a significant increase in infantry/ land seizure attempts (yet).

* Russian state media has started a live countdown to a public address by Putin tomorrow. Further mobilisation incoming?
* Biden has visited Ukraine.
* Russian ships have been caught scoping out Dutch energy infrastructure in the North Sea, and were escorted out of Dutch territory.

 

[Ag3ma]

We're 3 (?) days away from the 1-year anniversary of the invasion. We've seen a drastically increased shelling/cruise missile offensive from Russia in the past 2 weeks, but not a significant increase in infantry/ land seizure attempts (yet).

* Russian state media has started a live countdown to a public address by Putin tomorrow. Further mobilisation incoming?
* Biden has visited Ukraine.
* Russian ships have been caught scoping out Dutch energy infrastructure in the North Sea, and were escorted out of Dutch territory.

Interesting. The US have warned that China may start supplying Russia with arms: that would be huge news if Putin could announce it. I am skeptical China would want to get involved, though: it seems to value its neutrality highly, and this would almost guarantee a Cold War with the West.

I can imagine Putin's announcement might be a grandiose nothingburger. The sort of thing I can imagine is "Dear Russians, we've achieved everything we want to and we now unliaterally declare this special military operation over, any further fighting is the result of Ukraine invading our territory." I can't see another mobilisation going down well.

 

[Thaluikhain]

I can imagine Putin's announcement might be a grandiose nothingburger. The sort of thing I can imagine is "Dear Russians, we've achieved everything we want to and we now unliaterally declare this special military operation over, any further fighting is the result of Ukraine invading our territory." I can't see another mobilisation going down well.

Second that. Bit surprised that hasn't happened already, TBH, they are unlikely to get anything more of significance, would expect them to consolidate, maybe scorched Earth some places and retreat and hope people accept the new status quo of them having some bits of Ukraine.

 

[Dalisclock]

Second that. Bit surprised that hasn't happened already, TBH, they are unlikely to get anything more of significance, would expect them to consolidate, maybe scorched Earth some places and retreat and hope people accept the new status quo of them having some bits of Ukraine.

The irony is that they're scorched earth-ing the same areas they claim as part of mother Russia and even if they could somehow get them in a peace settlement, it would take decades and a substational investment to actually use them for anything. That's what I really don't get. Scorched Earth makes sense when you're doing in someone elses backyard, but when you're fighting tooth and nail to hold onto it because you want to keep it, what are you really getting out of it?

Russia claims the Donbass is Russia, has always been Russia and will always be Russia, but is shelling and mining the every living shit out the same area in a manner that going to make it painful to rebuild and exploit if they ever actually get to keep it.

 

[RhombusHatesYou]

Russia claims the Donbass is Russia, has always been Russia and will always be Russia, but is shelling and mining the every living shit out the same area in a manner that going to make it painful to rebuild and exploit if they ever actually get to keep it.

Look, it's not like you have to teach forced labour safe mine clearance... Hell, you don't even have to teach them just get a bunch of prisoners at one end of the minefield and tell them whoever makes it to the other end gets to go free*.


*the 'free' is the complimentary sniper round in the back of the skull.

 

[TheMysteriousGX]

Look, it's not like you have to teach forced labour safe mine clearance... Hell, you don't even have to teach them just get a bunch of prisoners at one end of the minefield and tell them whoever makes it to the other end gets to go free*.


*the 'free' is the complimentary sniper round in the back of the skull.

That wasting a sniper bullet. And survivors are now veterans and well suited to clearing the *next* minefield

 

[Silvanus]

Putin's major speech started at 9am GMT. So far it's the same kind of rhetoric we've heard before.

* Accuses the West of starting the war by attacking the Russian insurgents in Donbas;

* Accuses the West of openly planning to supply nuclear weapons to Ukraine before February 2022 (Ukraine voluntarily relinquished its post-Soviet nuclear arsenal in return for a guarantee it would not be invaded by Russia);

* Claims Ukraine plans to attack Sevastopol after Donbas;

* Refers to the West's "centuries of colonialism and dictatorship". Which, of course, is very much true... although omits the fact that Russia was one of the worst culprits for imperialism and dictatorship, and that its imperialist history goes back a lot further than America's.

* Digs into the 'holy war' rhetoric we've heard from Prigozhin and Medvedev already. Claims the West is allied with the devil himself.

 

[Ag3ma]

The irony is that they're scorched earth-ing the same areas they claim as part of mother Russia and even if they could somehow get them in a peace settlement, it would take decades and a substational investment to actually use them for anything. That's what I really don't get. Scorched Earth makes sense when you're doing in someone elses backyard, but when you're fighting tooth and nail to hold onto it because you want to keep it, what are you really getting out of it?

Russia claims the Donbass is Russia, has always been Russia and will always be Russia, but is shelling and mining the every living shit out the same area in a manner that going to make it painful to rebuild and exploit if they ever actually get to keep it.

I don't believe Russia will rebuild it, either.

I think Russia will do what Russia has always done with Ukraine: take what it wants, and give very little back. It will attempt to control Ukraine with propaganda and indoctrination, not with rebuilding and investment. Because for all the rhetoric that Ukraine is actually part of Russia, Russians don't truly think it is and Ukrainians don't truly think it is... and Russia looks after Russia.

One could use as an approximate analogy England and Scotland. They can be bound together as one state, but they're still two nations. However, although Scotland might also chafe under numerous frustrations as the junior partner, the UK really has ensured Scotland is a developed country with wealth and standards equivalent to the national average. The Russian Empire and Soviet Union never did the same for Ukraine.

 

[Silvanus]

* Condemns the West for going against "scripture" in recognising same sex marriage;

* Claims that paedophilia is "announced as a normal thing" in the West.

OK, we've arrived at the screaming far-right Christian-nationalist bigot section of the speech.

 

[Ag3ma]

Putin's major speech started at 9am GMT. So far it's the same kind of rhetoric we've heard before.

* Accuses the West of starting the war by attacking the Russian insurgents in Donbas;

* Accuses the West of openly planning to supply nuclear weapons to Ukraine before February 2022 (Ukraine voluntarily relinquished its post-Soviet nuclear arsenal in return for a guarantee it would not be invaded by Russia);

* Claims Ukraine plans to attack Sevastopol after Donbas;

* Refers to the West's "centuries of colonialism and dictatorship". Which, of course, is very much true... although omits the fact that Russia was one of the worst culprits for imperialism and dictatorship, and that its imperialist history goes back a lot further than America's.

* Digs into the 'holy war' rhetoric we've heard from Prigozhin and Medvedev already. Claims the West is allied with the devil himself.