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ralfy

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Whether or not the UK has a military industrial complex depends entirely on how you define a military industrial complex. The UK has a domestic arms industry and a military that utilizes its domestic arms industry, so sure. The UK has a military industrial complex.

The actual point was that anyone with experience of living in the UK or who is familiar with the political environment would be able to tell you that the idea of political decisions being determined by the need to expend military hardware and thereby enrich the domestic arms industry is incredibly silly. Most of the vehicles and systems going to Ukraine now were built in the 80s and 90s. They are not being produced any more. The reason why the UK can be comparatively generous with these systems is that the army is being downsized, and a lot of those systems were doomed to end up on the scrapheap by the end of the decade anyway.

The UK was a military superpower a hundred years ago. It remained a relevant military power during the cold war and had enough left in the tank to play a role in the quote/unquote War on Terror, but that military relevance has been declining for a long time. At the end of the day the UK has no real incentive to maintain a powerful military, and the military has no real incentive to maintain a powerful domestic arms industry.

It's possible the current conflict will change this. Maybe the US will finally get its wish and European states will start feeling the need to contribute to their own defence. I doubt it though, because I think that would be a pretty hard sell even for the psychopathic public schoolboys who run this island.



I mean, in the very broad sense that both are the beneficiaries of Russian colonialism, sure.

Do you really want to get into the colonial history of Crimea? Particularly given the treatment of indigenous people in Crimea since the 2014 annexation..
The new UK is the U.S. The latter uses a military industrial complex to control other countries through intervention, manipulation, or destabilization leading to regime change. These include policies ranging from coups to assassinations to structural adjustment policies to military or financial aid with strings attached. The goal is to make sure that their economies are pried open to exploit cheap labor and resources, and to make them dependent on the dollar for trade.

The result is a unipolar world where the U.S. calls the shots.

The problem is that the use of the dollar for world trade also led to a Triffin dilemma, causing the U.S. to borrow and spend heavily since the early 1980s, to not only pay for consumer spending and its very expensive military spending but even for previous debt. It has now reached a point where it can't even pay for interest on previous loans, but has to borrow even more each time.

To do that, demand for the dollar has to remain high, but more countries, including those abused by the U.S., are answering back. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brazil, Mexico, and others are now moving away from the U.S. orbit of influence and engaging in freer trade with each other, without using the dollar. Recall that in the past this antagonized the U.S. greatly, e.g., CNN reported that Saddam was selling oil in exchange for euros before the invasion of Iraq, Libya was planning its own oil bourse, and Iran was threatened while operating its own.

Several still refuse to remember that sordid past by reminding most that it's Russia that's evil, that invaded Ukraine for no reason other than to form an empire, and that it must be stopped.

In response, most are no longer listening, including U.S. allies that are now buying oil from Russia and selling gas to China in exchange for yuans.

With that, what's emerging is a multipolar world.
 

Satinavian

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The Euro was introduced not to get rid of the dollar but to facilitate trade between EU members.

BRICS is composed of five countries plus over forty that make up emerging markets:

Of course we wanted to weaken the Dollar and take over at least a part of the world reserve currency role with the creation of the EURO. Also we wanted to move more international finance from there to here with it.

And the BRICS are only those 5 Countries. The emerging markets are a completely different group that also gets adjusted constantly. You are just wrong.

In response, most are no longer listening, including U.S. allies that are now buying oil from Russia and selling gas to China in exchange for yuans.

With that, what's emerging is a multipolar world.
You have it backward.

Before the invasion, we listened far less to the US. We had our own interests and those often differed. But with Russia starting conquering its neighbours who are really uncomfortably close to us, we suddenly need the otherwise overblown US military might.

The Russian invasion is what took as decades back in the direction of a unipolar world. And only because Putin wants an empire. He has no problem with the US becoming more influential as long as he can pretetnd that Russia is its equal.
 
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Ag3ma

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The problem is that the use of the dollar for world trade also led to a Triffin dilemma, causing the U.S. to borrow and spend heavily since the early 1980s, to not only pay for consumer spending and its very expensive military spending but even for previous debt. It has now reached a point where it can't even pay for interest on previous loans, but has to borrow even more each time.
Okay. What you also need to consider is what assets entities have as well as debt.

So US household debt is about $20 trillion, and has doubled (% GDP) since 1980. Ouch, you may think. However, in the wider context the total household asset wealth of the USA is estimated at about $150 trillion dollars. Looking at in terms of household debt : net worth ratio since 1980, it's barely changed. So are households worse off, in total, than they were in 1980? Basically, no. (Bear in mind this can conceal some severe debt issues in areas - for instance low income households may be under severe debt pressure but richer households not).

The US government is a slightly different issue: it ran up debt due to iffy policies and political dysfunction, not because it was forced to. But anyone assessing the financial health of the USA has to consider things like the extraordinary wealth of the country as a whole. For instance, those $150 trillion in household assets can, if need be, be converted into government income to pay off debt. Taxation or the Fed printing money to pay off government debt (causing inflation) could achieve that. Of course, this also requires political will - and that might be a significant stumbling block.

Corporate debt is potentially more problematic than household or national - there the debt : net worth ratio does make for sober reading. High corporate debt does raise the question of whether companies are vulnerable to economic shocks, however this is hard to answer without clearer data on how that debt is distributed and what companies are doing with it.

leading to debt that it cannot pay, excluding over $180 trillion in unfunded liabilities:
Whatever you mean by this, you have misread it.
 
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Ag3ma

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With that, what's emerging is a multipolar world.
Yes, but this isn't news. The rise of China alone creates a multipolar world, by offering a credible alternative to the US-led West (Europe still effectively works closely with the USA).

China, of course, is also facing a slowdown. Due to inaccuracies in its reporting, China is already suspected to have significantly inflated GDP (by as much as 25%), and projections are that it will be growing at 4-5% rather than the 8% it used to for the 20s, and only likely to become slower thereafter.

The other BRICS are yet to make a significant impact. Brazil, for instance, has not seen economic growth faster than the USA or Europe for ten years. It's stalled. Thus its relative power to the USA hasn't changed, and it makes little difference. The same is true of Russia, languishing in stagnation and self-imposed isolation, and South Africa, increasingly mired in corruption. India is apparently on its way to become a major economic power, but that's going to take decades yet, with plenty of potential pitfalls. It's well behind China, is only around the same size as the UK and France (nominal, although higher PPP), and may have to contend with increasing sociopolitical instability and autocracy (note the BJP).
 

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They do! The U.S. goal is encirclement of Russia, and it started with Clinton as part of electioneering. There was no valid reason whatsoever for NATO expansion.
OK. So now that Russia has invaded and annexed two non-NATO members on its doorstep, and has vocally threatened to attack others, how exactly can you claim NATO doesn't convey security from Russian invasion? Finland and Sweden have come to that conclusion as a direct result of Russia's actions.

Part of that involved manipulation of Ukraine via Nuland and co:


That's why Nuland and others were also referring to Biden and the UN Secretary-General. Those were not mere musings by officials with lots of time in their hands.

This is part of color revolutions, among others, have been discussed across the years, and involves not just Ukraine:



From there, connect the aid to American corporate money, and you realize what the U.S. gets from such:

Yes, I know the links talked about American corporate money in Ukraine. Which-- as I've already said-- nobody disputes exists.

What's overlooked here is the fact Russian money and Russian interference dwarfs it. So if we're arguing that foreign meddling justifies an opposing force getting involved... well, that applies just as much or more to Russia.

One more point: that's the same Zelensky who, as a comedian, made fun of his own country before Russian audiences and is now echoing Putin's actions by banning the opposition.
A massive stretch. Zelensky banned a few far-left and far-right parties which had taken positions against the continued existence of their own country, and which were electorally irrelevant anyway. Whereas Russia has effectively rendered all opposition parties incapable of opposing it, and imprisoned the primary opposition. Not really even in the same ballpark.

And as far as "making fun of his own country"... yeah, so the fuck what? Yanukovych's advisors were seriously preaching that Ukraine should be destroyed as an independent state, yet tankies continue to hold his government up as the better alternative, cruelly ousted by meddlers.
 

Silvanus

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I think what concerned Russia wasn't so much an independent Ukraine but one that would be used by the U.S., and using NATO.
In that case, you're diametrically against the position of George Kennan, despite providing an article espousing his position. Kennan was clear that Russia would never accept independence for Ukraine.

If Russia was merely concerned about NATO and US meddling in Ukraine, that would be fine and justified. Except, of course, that Russia chose to meddle to a far greater extent-- making their objections rank, imperial hypocrisy.
 

Seanchaidh

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Besides the current mess originated not from Nuland but Putin. He forced Yanukovitch to self destruct.
Putin was responsible for the EU demanding harsh austerity measures in return for a trade agreement? Putin made Right Sector snipers shoot at protestors?

Most of the vehicles and systems going to Ukraine now were built in the 80s and 90s. They are not being produced any more. The reason why the UK can be comparatively generous with these systems is that the army is being downsized, and a lot of those systems were doomed to end up on the scrapheap by the end of the decade anyway.

The UK was a military superpower a hundred years ago. It remained a relevant military power during the cold war and had enough left in the tank to play a role in the quote/unquote War on Terror, but that military relevance has been declining for a long time. At the end of the day the UK has no real incentive to maintain a powerful military, and the military has no real incentive to maintain a powerful domestic arms industry.
UK has military spending that is fifth in the world. Are you aware of how many countries there are? It is substantially more than five. Just because US military spending is stratospheric does not mean your military is not 'relevant'. You spend around four times as much per capita as China.
 

Silvanus

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Putin made Right Sector snipers shoot at protestors?
Nope, Putin doesn't appear to have culpability for those ~50 deaths. But he did have his army and neo-Nazi paramilitary massacre >8000 civilians over the last year: including extended torture sessions, summary executions of bound prisoners in the street, and targeted missile attacks on hospitals and schools. People tend to consider the latter to comprise a pretty big chunk of the "mess".
 
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Ag3ma

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UK has military spending that is fifth in the world. Are you aware of how many countries there are? It is substantially more than five. Just because US military spending is stratospheric does not mean your military is not 'relevant'. You spend around four times as much per capita as China.
Yes, but the UK has the world's fifth largest economy so the fifth highest defence budget would not exactly be surprising (and actually, it's fourth highest military spend, at least nominal dollars). It has a per capita income approximately four times China's, so nor would it be surprise that it has a per capita military expenditure about four times higher. Except of course it spends a lot less than China, because China has a much larger economy. And that China is reckoned to hide a substantial amount of military spending off its official defence budget, particularly in terms of R&D. (Of course, military spending per capita is a fairly insane way to assess comparative military capabilities anyway - you could as well argue Luxembourg is a greater military power than China that way.)

The bottom line is that the UK military, alone, would these days be unlikely to be able to recover two islands off the coast of South America were they invaded by a middle-income nation. It is sheer absurdity to think the UK is a meaningful military power in today's world, except as a force addition to some other nation(s).
 

Thaluikhain

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The bottom line is that the UK military, alone, would these days be unlikely to be able to recover two islands off the coast of South America were they invaded by a middle-income nation. It is sheer absurdity to think the UK is a meaningful military power in today's world, except as a force addition to some other nation(s).
True, but with two caveats, one that it's nuclear capable, and two, that it has (or had, but I think it still does) a very good logistical support system, meaning it's available as a force addition to other nations anywhere in the world, which is no small thing.
 

Terminal Blue

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UK has military spending that is fifth in the world.
What does that mean?

For one, a very large proportion of that money goes towards personnel. The UK is an expensive place to live and most people don't really want to join the armed forces, so they're only going to do it if they're being paid competitively. This is another reason why the army is being downsized, because despite all those cringey ads not enough people join it.

Secondly, the fact that all the shit the armed forces is using is old doesn't mean it's cheap. Actually, kind of the opposite. Machines wear out over time, they need more maintenance just to keep running, and that costs money. Keeping an old tank running is expensive. Keeping an old nuclear submarine running is really expensive, because if a nuclear submarine breaks down at sea while carrying nuclear warheads, it's really fucking bad (and has actually happened more times than anyone likes to pretend).

Which brings us neatly to the third point, because there are areas in the which the UK is still a comparatively relevant military power, and if you're wondering what those areas are.. you know why so many British tanks of the second World War are riveted or cast? It's because the admiralty decided they needed literally all the skilled welders in the country.

And that's pretty much the universal rule of British military history. When resources are limited, the First Sea Lord gets whatever he needs to go pillage the coasts of Westeros and the army copes and seethes like the good little projectile it is.

The problem with this is that the UK isn't sending ships to Ukraine, it's sending tanks and MANPADS designed by people who probably thought "I'm serious as cancer when I tell you rhythm is a dancer" was a work of lyrical genius. There's really no possible benefit to the UK shipbuilding industry (which BAE is also heavily involved in, despite its name) from the current conflict at all.
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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RhombusHatesYou

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Mod them to fit on bayonet lugs and you've got a new type of terror troop. Blokes charging at you with knives on the ends of their rifles pretty much telegraphs their intent. Blokes charging you with sex toys on the ends of their rifles would give you a lot of questions you're probably not mentally equipped to deal with.
 

ralfy

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Of course we wanted to weaken the Dollar and take over at least a part of the world reserve currency role with the creation of the EURO. Also we wanted to move more international finance from there to here with it.

And the BRICS are only those 5 Countries. The emerging markets are a completely different group that also gets adjusted constantly. You are just wrong.

You have it backward.

Before the invasion, we listened far less to the US. We had our own interests and those often differed. But with Russia starting conquering its neighbours who are really uncomfortably close to us, we suddenly need the otherwise overblown US military might.

The Russian invasion is what took as decades back in the direction of a unipolar world. And only because Putin wants an empire. He has no problem with the US becoming more influential as long as he can pretetnd that Russia is its equal.
I don't think there were plans to weaken the dollar. Rather, the country that creates the currency used as a world reserve experiences a Triffin dilemma.

BRICS is part of emerging markets. They, in turn, is part of a Global South, with more becoming emerging markets.

You have it backward.

Before the invasion, the U.S. dollar remained the world reserve currency, and with petrodollar recycling involved oil priced in dollars. Saudi Arabia shattered that only a few weeks ago. Everything else followed, just as I reported to you.
 

ralfy

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Okay. What you also need to consider is what assets entities have as well as debt.

So US household debt is about $20 trillion, and has doubled (% GDP) since 1980. Ouch, you may think. However, in the wider context the total household asset wealth of the USA is estimated at about $150 trillion dollars. Looking at in terms of household debt : net worth ratio since 1980, it's barely changed. So are households worse off, in total, than they were in 1980? Basically, no. (Bear in mind this can conceal some severe debt issues in areas - for instance low income households may be under severe debt pressure but richer households not).

The US government is a slightly different issue: it ran up debt due to iffy policies and political dysfunction, not because it was forced to. But anyone assessing the financial health of the USA has to consider things like the extraordinary wealth of the country as a whole. For instance, those $150 trillion in household assets can, if need be, be converted into government income to pay off debt. Taxation or the Fed printing money to pay off government debt (causing inflation) could achieve that. Of course, this also requires political will - and that might be a significant stumbling block.

Corporate debt is potentially more problematic than household or national - there the debt : net worth ratio does make for sober reading. High corporate debt does raise the question of whether companies are vulnerable to economic shocks, however this is hard to answer without clearer data on how that debt is distributed and what companies are doing with it.



Whatever you mean by this, you have misread it.
Keep in mind that the reason why it's called a balance sheet is because the assets must match liabilities.

In this case, we're looking at $90 trillion in total debts plus $180 trillion in unfunded liabilities.


What's total assets? Around $270 trillion?


I don't know how the numbers I gave is right, but whatever is given, the assets must match liabilities. That's what you see in balance sheets.

So, how do countries pay for debts? They use what they earn from exports. But the U.S. has been experiencing trade deficits since the 1970s.
 

ralfy

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Yes, but this isn't news. The rise of China alone creates a multipolar world, by offering a credible alternative to the US-led West (Europe still effectively works closely with the USA).

China, of course, is also facing a slowdown. Due to inaccuracies in its reporting, China is already suspected to have significantly inflated GDP (by as much as 25%), and projections are that it will be growing at 4-5% rather than the 8% it used to for the 20s, and only likely to become slower thereafter.

The other BRICS are yet to make a significant impact. Brazil, for instance, has not seen economic growth faster than the USA or Europe for ten years. It's stalled. Thus its relative power to the USA hasn't changed, and it makes little difference. The same is true of Russia, languishing in stagnation and self-imposed isolation, and South Africa, increasingly mired in corruption. India is apparently on its way to become a major economic power, but that's going to take decades yet, with plenty of potential pitfalls. It's well behind China, is only around the same size as the UK and France (nominal, although higher PPP), and may have to contend with increasing sociopolitical instability and autocracy (note the BJP).
It's actually news because what I've been sharing with you has been taking place the last four weeks. It started with Saudi Arabia no longer using the dollar for trading oil:


Check out the recent news about Japan buying oil from Russia, European countries buying oil from Russia via India, France now selling LNG to China in exchange for yuans, and more.

Next, go and look at the data for BRICS and emerging markets. Their economies are growing, especially China:


The same goes for emerging markets:


You are talking about another planet!
 

ralfy

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OK. So now that Russia has invaded and annexed two non-NATO members on its doorstep, and has vocally threatened to attack others, how exactly can you claim NATO doesn't convey security from Russian invasion? Finland and Sweden have come to that conclusion as a direct result of Russia's actions.



Yes, I know the links talked about American corporate money in Ukraine. Which-- as I've already said-- nobody disputes exists.

What's overlooked here is the fact Russian money and Russian interference dwarfs it. So if we're arguing that foreign meddling justifies an opposing force getting involved... well, that applies just as much or more to Russia.



A massive stretch. Zelensky banned a few far-left and far-right parties which had taken positions against the continued existence of their own country, and which were electorally irrelevant anyway. Whereas Russia has effectively rendered all opposition parties incapable of opposing it, and imprisoned the primary opposition. Not really even in the same ballpark.

And as far as "making fun of his own country"... yeah, so the fuck what? Yanukovych's advisors were seriously preaching that Ukraine should be destroyed as an independent state, yet tankies continue to hold his government up as the better alternative, cruelly ousted by meddlers.
NATO expansion started decades before Russia became aggressive:


That's why even by 2015 Mearsheimer and others were arguing that the U.S. was engaged in belligerence towards Russia:


The U.S. was doing the same in Asia 400 of its 900 military installations deployed on a global scale:


One has to be incredibly dense to imagine that a country that has military spending that's greater than those of others combined is doing so out of the goodness of its own heart, especially given a history of destabilizing, manipulating, and intervening in multiple countries:


And there is no massive stretch when it comes to Zelensky. That's the same politician who wants to turn Ukraine into a "big Israel"!


and backed by Biden who wanted regime change for Russia:


These are not unintentional, coincidental, or even trivial. The very nature of the U.S. and the countries it manipulates leads to that, which is why even their most liberal President referred to it as the most warlike in modern history:


That's why many countries that were abused by the U.S. are moving away from it:

 

ralfy

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In that case, you're diametrically against the position of George Kennan, despite providing an article espousing his position. Kennan was clear that Russia would never accept independence for Ukraine.

If Russia was merely concerned about NATO and US meddling in Ukraine, that would be fine and justified. Except, of course, that Russia chose to meddle to a far greater extent-- making their objections rank, imperial hypocrisy.
You're missing Kennan's point: he did not want the U.S. to interfere in Russia and Ukraine. Clinton did not follow him, and that led to manipulation in Ukraine via Nuland, and with that hostility from Russia.

Your last point is absurd: Russia and Ukraine are closer to each other than the U.S. is to Ukraine. Even today, most Americans can't identify Ukraine on a map:


Many of them can't even identify their own state on a map, and yet they find the need to meddle in many countries:


And for what reason? To keep the petrodollar propped up.