Ukraine

Bedinsis

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I just found out that one of the western companies still operating in Russia is Mondelez, which owns brands such Nabsico and Cadbury. Since I don't want to contribute to the Russian war economy I will be avoiding purchasing their brands. (which for me mostly translates to not buying anything from Marabou).
 
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Silvanus

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Yesterday: 54 Shahed kamikaze drones launched at Ukraine. 52 shot down.

Today: ~40 ballistic missiles and ~35 shahed drones launched at Ukraine. 37 missiles shot down. They did successfully strike an unspecified military target though, disabling 5 aircraft.

Meanwhile, Russian state media has been stating that all targets were successfully struck and destroyed, which is demonstrably untrue to anybody outside of Russia. So, seems that state media is maintaining the false pretense that the operation is going fantastically well at the moment.
 
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Ag3ma

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Yesterday: 54 Shahed kamikaze drones launched at Ukraine. 52 shot down.

Today: ~40 ballistic missiles and ~35 shahed drones launched at Ukraine. 37 missiles shot down. They did successfully strike an unspecified military target though, disabling 5 aircraft.

Meanwhile, Russian state media has been stating that all targets were successfully struck and destroyed, which is demonstrably untrue to anybody outside of Russia. So, seems that state media is maintaining the false pretense that the operation is going fantastically well at the moment.
I was quite amused by the Russian ambassador to the UK claiming that "we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously". No, they've lost all those men and all that equipment for funsies.

I know the Russian ambassador has to just parrot the party line even though he knows his country's deep in the mire. But I can appreciate many Russians like to believe that just as in the Soviet invasion of Finland or German invasion, eventually the Russian (Soviet) juggernaut will get into action and reign supreme. Except Russia isn't the USSR, and there isn't a juggernaut. There's no near-inexhaustable manpower, and no masses of factories to churn out newer and better tech, just a load of 60+-year-old tanks to try to refit.
 

Thaluikhain

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I was quite amused by the Russian ambassador to the UK claiming that "we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously". No, they've lost all those men and all that equipment for funsies.

I know the Russian ambassador has to just parrot the party line even though he knows his country's deep in the mire. But I can appreciate many Russians like to believe that just as in the Soviet invasion of Finland or German invasion, eventually the Russian (Soviet) juggernaut will get into action and reign supreme. Except Russia isn't the USSR, and there isn't a juggernaut. There's no near-inexhaustable manpower, and no masses of factories to churn out newer and better tech, just a load of 60+-year-old tanks to try to refit.
Well, if Russia was ok with the massive losses the Soviets took in WW2, they could win, I guess.
 

The Rogue Wolf

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I was quite amused by the Russian ambassador to the UK claiming that "we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously". No, they've lost all those men and all that equipment for funsies.
They're still trying saber-rattling, but the only thing they've got left is the nuclear option, and they know that would result in Russia becoming an enormous glowing parking lot.
 
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Ag3ma

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Well, if Russia was ok with the massive losses the Soviets took in WW2, they could win, I guess.
They can't.

Back in 1940, the Soviet population was close to 200 million, tending heavily to the young as the birth rate was about 4-5 children per woman. Russia has about 140 million people, and the birth rate has been about 1.5 children per woman since 1990.

So firstly, they just don't have that many people, especially of fighting age. Secondly, it's bad enough losing a child without it being your only child, which must dim the population's appetite for war.
 
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dreng3

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They can't.

Back in 1940, the Soviet population was close to 200 million, tending heavily to the young as the birth rate was about 4-5 children per woman. Russia has about 140 million people, and the birth rate has been about 1.5 children per woman since 1990.

So firstly, they just don't have that many people, especially of fighting age. Secondly, it's bad enough losing a child without it being your only child, which must dim the population's appetite for war.
And their weaponry was still somewhat era-appropriate, now we're talking 2 generations behind and with a far stronger propaganda/media apparatus on the opposing side.
 
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Dalisclock

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There’s a phrase I didn’t expect to read anytime soon.
Yeah, I'm shocked too.

They're still trying saber-rattling, but the only thing they've got left is the nuclear option, and they know that would result in Russia becoming an enormous glowing parking lot.
Well, Western Russia anyway. Apparently once you pass the Urals it's very, very Empty. Apparently a massive percertange of Russians live west of the Urals, concentrated in a few big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.

So Siberia might not become glass just for lack of anything worth dropping a nuke on.
 

Thaluikhain

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They can't.

Back in 1940, the Soviet population was close to 200 million, tending heavily to the young as the birth rate was about 4-5 children per woman. Russia has about 140 million people, and the birth rate has been about 1.5 children per woman since 1990.

So firstly, they just don't have that many people, especially of fighting age. Secondly, it's bad enough losing a child without it being your only child, which must dim the population's appetite for war.
Oh sure, I was being a bit flippant there. I don't seriously think they are willing to sustain the sort of casualties (or proportion of it) as in the bloodiest conflict in human history to get Ukraine.
 
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Dalisclock

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I was quite amused by the Russian ambassador to the UK claiming that "we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously". No, they've lost all those men and all that equipment for funsies.
I mean, they paraded a single T-34 through red square a couple weeks ago. That alone tells me the Russian military isn't remotely serious.
 

Dalisclock

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Well, if Russia was ok with the massive losses the Soviets took in WW2, they could win, I guess.
Arguably Russia had no choice at the time. They were fighting an enemy that flat out wanted to genocide or enslave the entire country and pressed all the war to Moscow, killing, raping and burning everything in the process. Those 20 million dead soviets in WW2 weren't just soldiers, they were civilians as well, because the Nazis had no fucking chill. It was very much a existential war for the USSR.

When you face something that dire, you have no choice but to fight or die, because surrender just leads to death anyway. That's a fantastic motivator to charge into hell and if that doesn't work, the barrier troops behind you will make sure you charge anyway.

This war is not remotely existential for Russia and the average Russian probably has no urge to go fight to keep Ukraine from retaking Melitopol. They sure as hell didn't rush to the recruiting offices in fury after Kherson(a regional "Russian" capitol) fell last year. Putin can conscript them, but that's not a well organized, well trained, motivated force, that's a bunch of conscripts who couldn't flee the country in time to avoid mobilization and who might be escorted by an operational tank from the early cold war....if they're lucky.

But fuck, Russia apparently doesn't even have proper border guards in the regions bordering the occupied Ukrainian territories(the raiding forces last week apparently crossed the border without being remotely challenged by the border troops DURING A TIME OF FUCKING WAR), which paints a really bad sign for their manpower.
 
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Thaluikhain

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Arguably Russia had no choice at the time. They were fighting an enemy that flat out wanted to genocide or enslave the entire country and pressed all the war to Moscow, killing, raping and burning everything in the process. Those 20 million dead soviets in WW2 weren't just soldiers, they were civilians as well, because the Nazis had no fucking chill. It was very much a existential war for the USSR.

When you face something that dire, you have no choice but to fight or die, because surrender just leads to death anyway. That's a fantastic motivator to charge into hell and if that doesn't work, the barrier troops behind you will make sure you charge anyway.

This war is not remotely existential for Russia and the average Russian probably has no urge to go fight to keep Ukraine from retaking Melitopol. They sure as hell didn't rush to the recruiting offices in fury after Kherson(a regional "Russian" capitol) fell last year. Putin can conscript them, but that's not a well organized, well trained, motivated force, that's a bunch of conscripts who couldn't flee the country in time to avoid mobilization and who might be escorted by an operational tank from the early cold war....if they're lucky.

But fuck, Russia apparently doesn't even have proper border guards in the regions bordering the occupied Ukrainian territories(the raiding forces last week apparently crossed the border without being remotely challenged by the border troops DURING A TIME OF FUCKING WAR), which paints a really bad sign for their manpower.
Oh absolutely. Easy to get people behind you when the alternative is being conquered by Nazis for reals.

Though (and again rather flippantly) I suspect that if modern Russia had NKVD commissars to execute people for incompetence things would be a bit different.
 
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Silvanus

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The first significant drone attack on Moscow, targeting primarily wealthy civilian areas. Building damage but no casualties reported (yet). Russian state media claims 8 drones involved; Russian social media claims closer to ~30. One drone was identified as Ukrainian-manufactured.

Ukrainian gov denied involvement, which... uhrm, breaks credulity.

Thus far, there has been (ostensibly) high support for the war among Russians, though it took a hit during the partial mobilisation drive. Presumably Ukraine has concluded that support for war will remain high in Russia as long as Russians do not actually feel the effects of war: they can support it destroying homes and schools 500 miles away, but wouldn't be comfortable with it impacting their own lives. This may be a move calculated to address that psychological gap.

Lavrov, Peskov and others are clutching their pearls, conveniently overlooking the fact that Russia has launched far more extensive bombing raids 16 times this month alone already.
 

Thaluikhain

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Reminiscent of the Doolittle raid and raids on Norway during WW2, promises that the war will stay way off are invitations for the enemy to make a liar of you.
 

meiam

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The first significant drone attack on Moscow, targeting primarily wealthy civilian areas. Building damage but no casualties reported (yet). Russian state media claims 8 drones involved; Russian social media claims closer to ~30. One drone was identified as Ukrainian-manufactured.

Ukrainian gov denied involvement, which... uhrm, breaks credulity.

Thus far, there has been (ostensibly) high support for the war among Russians, though it took a hit during the partial mobilisation drive. Presumably Ukraine has concluded that support for war will remain high in Russia as long as Russians do not actually feel the effects of war: they can support it destroying homes and schools 500 miles away, but wouldn't be comfortable with it impacting their own lives. This may be a move calculated to address that psychological gap.

Lavrov, Peskov and others are clutching their pearls, conveniently overlooking the fact that Russia has launched far more extensive bombing raids 16 times this month alone already.
TBF, its not above Russia to bomb their own territory to drum support, so it might be legitimate that Ukraine wasn't involved. It might also be something that upper echelon didn't know of and was down by lower rank people.

Still, its strange that so many drone would just be able to get that far with no interception. We'll see how the russian public will respond.
 
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Ag3ma

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TBF, its not above Russia to bomb their own territory to drum support, so it might be legitimate that Ukraine wasn't involved. It might also be something that upper echelon didn't know of and was down by lower rank people.
I'm skeptical that Russia would do that. My guess is some form of Ukrainian cell or Russian anti-Putin group, potentially with some indirect Ukrainian support. The drones may also near Moscow itself, as it is probably very easy get stuff into Russia.

Also from that article:
'Putin also claimed Russian forces were only striking military facilities in Ukraine using “high-precision weapons”.' :unsure:
 

Thaluikhain

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Yeah, the official Russian military/government could do that, and would if it suited them, but not seeing the benefit. Unless it's internal politics, making a specific rival group look bad, which I guess isn't impossible.
 

Hades

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TBF, its not above Russia to bomb their own territory to drum support,
Indeed. That’s even how Putin came to power to begin with. He needed to be seen as a strong leader so “”Chechnya” bombed civilian areas to justify a big war for Putin to win.